Temfrna

Same previous paper, more my style The Optionality Cost Ratio: A Model-Free Framework for Systematic LEAPS Allocation in CEO Turnaround Situations temfrna.github.io/investment-res…

that 1.33 breakeven comes lower to as they dangle the strc yield premium over sofr and lower strc yield in low interest rate environment (hopefully coming soon) Then this becomes even more convex, the mnav starts performing at a lower threshold and btc price accretes due to low interest rates. btw, z06z07 - dec26/dec27 - what spread you long or short?

Expert-level post. I may have reverse-engineered what @Strategy is doing with $STRC and $MSTR. This is not really a “preferred stock” story. It’s a synthetic internal yield curve for capital funding. The real spread is NOT: STRC yield vs SOFR The real spread is: MSTR market premium (mNAV) vs STRC funding cost. Strategy itself has effectively identified ~1.22x mNAV as an issuance floor. But once you layer in an 11.5% STRC funding cost, 1.22x is STILL negative carry. That means: (1.22 - 1.22) - 11.5% = -11.5% So the system only works if BTC/share growth (their “BTC Yield”) exceeds the funding drag. This is why the 10% BTC Yield (increase in ₿PS) target matters so much and is most likely a low number and easy for them to beat. It’s not a random KPI. It’s a reflexive sustainability threshold. The actual breakeven appears closer to ~1.33x mNAV: 1.33 - 1.22 ≈ 11.5% Below that, the curve is inverted. Above that, positive reflexive carry resumes. The heat map below is effectively a synthetic sovereign-style funding curve for Strategy. Red = destructive financing regime Orange = weak equilibrium Green = positive reflexive carry Dark green = convex accretion regime This is also why mNAV matters far more now than it did a year ago. Before STRC, mNAV was mostly a valuation metric. After STRC, mNAV became a funding spread.

What will hurt OpenAI and Anthropic vs Google is that former are not business people, they are product developers. They are subject matter experts with somewhat of an expertise in blue-ocean markets. As they enter red-ocean terratory (sic) they will need seasoned business managers, google has it.

Sometimes I see an opportunity and discount it, ah this can't be real, it should've been arbitraged away. Then, I realize, I am the arbitrageur.

@MilkRoad @RaoulGMI We still don’t have flying cars btw

Raoul Pal: We're putting AGI brains into humanoid robots. "That, to me, is a new species." Production lines are ramping. Nine billion humans competing with machines for jobs. "And we're going to compete with them in jobs? No. We'll find other stuff to do." FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision

@JoshMandell6 The one hodls till end grins

Call them blocks or boxes or bins Mined in offices, basements or dens By Americans, Spaniards or Fins Drinking water, whiskies or gins The first rule, the one that begins Just know that the longest chain wins

@AndrewFenn45484 @Greenbackd I am establishing that they’re wrong bc their minds cannot comprehend the-then perception of the inhabitants since they grew up with those things. It’s the same thing like teenagers thinking their parents are stupid - lack of data

@temfr13 @Greenbackd Talk to the AI maximalists. I mean I think they are obviously super wrong but they actually think AI is a more disruptive tech than electricy or railroads

The "tech" in 1929 was electrification. It's conceivable that it was as impactful (or more so) than the internet or AI. It also led to a bubble.

@ariaradnia Why is it up in last one year?

I can't believe Berkshire bought this piece of JUNK $M

@ThierryBorgeat This is very good and this is where unfortunately most stop so you get in good names. Take it further - what are the catalysts? What returns market is pricing in leaps? Can you formulate a path that justifies those returns? Never invest without catalysts

A Fascinating Conversation with My Mentor Thierry, three simple questions for every investment opportunity 1⃣Is there demand for the product now and in the future? 2⃣Is there a competitive advantage? 3⃣Is there top-notch management? Simple, isn't it? What would you add?

@Z06Z07 @Strategy This actually is inexplicable. Only reason I can think of is clarity of operations and management transparency. There’s total clarity on where money is going and company mission, that draws in capital from btc believers

SpaceX reportedly wants to IPO at a $1T valuation and raise $75B That sounds enormous… But relative to market cap, it’s actually much smaller than what @strategy has already done. • SpaceX IPO raise = 7.5% of market cap • Strategy 2025 issuance = 37.4% of market cap • Strategy YTD 2026 issuance = 18.7% of market cap • Strategy combined issuance = 56.1% of market cap If SpaceX issued equity at the same relative pace as Strategy, it would raise ~$560B, not $75B Strategy is not like a normal operating company, It’s functioning more like a balance-sheet monetization rocket. $MSTR $STRC

@RoZoro90 @trengriffin I they are worried about tokenization. If clarity act passes payments through stablecoins take away share

@trengriffin @trengriffin are you surprised by the V and MA exists?

"Berkshire also initiated a small position in Macy’s, valued at roughly $55 million at the end of the first quarter." "It would certainly be unpleasant if we were in the department store business,” Charlie Munger said. “Just think of what we avoided, Warren.”

I saw that and it’s very interesting. Malls have ended, Macy keeps disappearing. What do they see? It will be something surprising if they see massive growth coming. It just seems so dead. If they’re looking at business getting shored and tightened up then what returns it can be worth

Actually no, ASST has a higher risk premium because we don’t know how Cole etc will act in another crisis, counterparty risk is higher due to smaller size. Their capital raising ability is thus inferior to strategy. Share price is a function of mnav and the above factors will keep it down on a relative basis

People pitting MSTR against ASST are lame. One is run by somebody who has brought the company through multiple bear markets including a global financial crisis. The other is being run by a talented team which is yet unproven in the space over time, but has the attributes of being very successful going forward Enjoy both!

@MilkRoad @RaoulGMI @RealVision If you cite raoul one more time I unfollow. Guy has no clue

Raoul Pal: "In four years, we'll have superintelligence." AI is developing at the fastest rate of any technology we've ever seen. Politics can't deal with it. Institutions can't deal with it. "We're just not set up for this." FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision

@JoshMandell6 Too much time on your hands lol

Q: Why did the triangle refuse to argue with the circle? A: Because it's pointless.

@bg55bg55 @rickjeff78 Don’t try to time it. They gotta cut interest rates eventually, btc rips, Mstr rips more.

@temfr13 @rickjeff78 Damn so another sell and recovery this year before a reclaim of $300 mstr?

I believe this is the current plan of Trump and Bessent. Asian vol event triggers pullback, and crashes demand. Oil and other commodities pullback sharply. Bonds rally as global slowdown narrative takes hold, Warsh starts cutting. S&P will do this if they execute it.

@Jason Spot on.

Uber is going to be bought by Google/Waymo, Amazon or Tesla/SpaceX in the next year. For a “buy it now” price of $250b, one of those three companies gets a $12b a year free cash flow machine with $70b in revenue — and hundreds of millions of global customers This is the most obvious M&A deal since Instagram, Android and YouTube transformed Meta and Google Discuss

The unfiltered is the complement. Complement is symbiotic with the uncomplemented, a unified set is always more informative

Don't operate on a filtered world, operate on the whole world. Don't decrease the dimensionality, rather increase it aggressively perpetually. Filter only in the context of a specific action.

What’s he even saying??? This is why no one bought the IPO