Tech capital

I had loaded up on Sk Hynix $10k just before Liberation Day. Sold at a loss before it reached a Liberation Day low. That would have been a 10-bagger for me. It is bitter for me hearing everyone talk about memory when I was early and sold because of a macro selloff. Moving on, we learn from this. I've had big successes too, but definitely missed the memory rotation.

I made three costly mistakes this year. All due to overthinking and personal bias. I did not respect my systems, or the market, and it cost me greatly. I'd estimate them to have cost me ~25% in YTD performance. Not a small miss. Writing this helps me pinpoint the issue, identifying where and why things went wrong, and crystallizes the moment. This is how I learn, how I improve, how I ensure not to reproduce these mistakes in the second half of the year. I already talked about my first mistake, but today is a great day to revisit it after a banger quarter and a new ATH. $NBIS would now be a 7-bagger from my ealier average and a 9.5-bagger from my lowest purchase. I no longer own the name. I sold my position in February ~$85. I had the bias that declining margins from hyperscalers and increased CapEx would trigger more selling while the tech market was bearish. x.com/WealthyReading… I was wrong, but that wasn’t my mistake. My mistake was to believe my bias to be more valuable than my system. If I had followed it, I would still be holding and sitting on ~750% return from my early 2025 purchases. Sure, I realized my mistake, bought back at ~$110, and sold at ~$140 to concentrate on $SOI - which turned out to be a great move. x.com/WealthyReading… But breaking the system wasn't and the liquidity to buy $SOI should have come from other names - one we'll talk baout in my third mistake. That was lesson one. I haven’t broken my system on any core position since. I hold a thesis and price action; as long as neither breaks, I hold my stock. The involved both $LUNR and $RKLB. I wrote a clear, detailed write-up on both explaining why I was buying them, justifying the obvious bull market in space, and why those two would be winners. The plan was clear from thesis to execution. Since these positions were bought at a high valuation, they came with a stop loss to protect my capital - which was on margin. But last week, after $FLY and $BKSY earnings and the red reactions, I decided to reduce my position in both as they were trading ~2% above my stop loss around my entry price. My plan was crystal clear and the risk was controlled. But I chose to reduce it because... something "seemed" wrong? I am not even sure why. Nevertheless, I did. $RKLB went on to trigger my profit-taking order at $99, and $LUNR is still running, now up 50% since entry. What should have been two 40%+ trades turned out to be less than hald of it, for no reason. I had a trading plan. Controlled risk. And I chose to not trust myself. That was lesson two. $TMDX has been the most important lesson for this year. I said I closed $NBIS to buy $SOI, that was as I refused to close $TMDX despites no performance, no volume, no narrative. I closed a winner to hold a favorite. Closing this position was harder to me than closing a winner with tailwinds and perfect execution. The stock turned out to be a loser and fell a sharp 45% since I closed my position. But I should have closed it sooner. If a stock doesn't respect your buying condictions anymore, you have no reasons to hold it. Markets are too unforgiving to waste capital on a name outside of your system, just because you like it. That was lesson three. The problem with those three lessons is that fixing them is pretty hard, for a simple reason. They are all psychological. The first was about fear, the second was about doubt and the third was about attachement. The only way to get rid of them is either to print in your brain that the feeling of losing is worst that the feeling of selling a name you love or holding a name you doubt on despites you clear plan. Or to build systems. Hacks that will force you not to overthink a position or hold onto it too long. Automations or actions to avoid being in this situation. I will have to think more about the solutions, but the mistakes and symptoms are clear; that is already a massive step to improving. Our investing is only as good as our poorest decision.

I am buying $GFS. The thesis is simple. Hyperscalers are switching from copper interconnects to photonics, and $GFS is the clear leader in silicon photonics technology manufacturing. The stock is not screamingly cheap, but certainly not incorporating the potential explosive growth in photonics.

@Mariusz_Invest Friend, I bought $pltr at $10 and sold at $70. I left 700% on the table. You cry for 50%? And I also bought $googl at $180 and sold at $320, but this is nothing. Look for the next opportunity.

Bought $GOOGL at 160. Sold at 300 after a massive run. 🤦‍♂️ I thought I was being "smart" by taking profits, but I was actually just being impatient. The company's story remains exactly the same as it was on day one. Mistake: Selling a winner for no real reason Lesson learned: Let your winners run as long as the thesis holds. 📈 Thank you 🙏🏻

You shall never take investment advice from Financial Times. $rddt.

@StockSavvyShay Who estimated EPS of $1.09. All is see is half that amount.

$RDDT Q1 EARNINGS • Revenue $663M vs Est. $610M • EPS $1.01 vs Est. $1.09 • EBITDA $266M vs. Est. $226M • DAUs 126.8M vs Est. 121.1M • ARPU: $5.23 (+44% YoY) Q2 Guidance • Revenue $720M vs. Est. $716M • EBITDA $290M vs. Est. $283M

After yesterday's blowout results, $rddt is expected to earn $4.9 in earnings in 2026. This means the stock trades at just 35x earnings, after being up 15% to $170 per share. At yesterday's close, it trades at 30x. This is for a company that is growing 70% and has been smashing estimates, with massive runway to improve the number of users, average revenue per user, and the number of advertisers. Management will figure it out.

Citizens JMP Securities on $rddt upcoming earnings: "We expect another solid quarter from Reddit given product improvements across onboarding, search, localization, and ad tooling likely support continued DAU and monetization momentum. We believe brands are increasingly aware of the importance of Reddit within AI search..."

@Zweistein2stein @ylecun @Gianl1974 I have a friend that works at Pfizer, mid management. Moved out of the US to France for better quality of life. Returned to the US after two years because he’d rather work hard and keep the money than work hard in France and the state taking more than half of his wages.

Trump just fired all 24 members of the National Science Board. Every single one. By email. No warning. No reason given. The board has existed since 1950. The National Science Board is the independent body that oversees the National Science Foundation, the agency that distributes $9 billion in research grants every year. Its members are scientists and engineers from universities and industry. They serve six-year staggered terms specifically so they cross presidential administrations and stay independent of whoever is in power. On Friday, every single one of them got the same boilerplate email from Mary Sprowls of the Presidential Personnel Office: "On behalf of President Donald J Trump, I am writing to inform you that your position as a member of the National Science Board is terminated, effective immediately. Thank you for your service." That's it. That's the whole letter. For 76 years of institutional independence. The NSF funds the basic science behind MRIs. Cellphones. LASIK eye surgery. GPS. The internet itself. The Antarctic research stations. The deep-space telescopes. The research vessels mapping the ocean floor. Every breakthrough that made America the world's leader in science for the better part of a century traces back through grants this agency made and this board approved. The board chair, Victor McCrary, was actively advising Congress on Trump's proposed 55% cut to NSF's budget. The board was helping fight back. So Trump fired the board. Marvi Matos Rodriguez, one of the fired members, told reporters she had been reviewing an 80-page report as part of her board duties just days before being terminated. Keivan Stassun, a physicist at Vanderbilt, said NSF's leadership had already stopped responding to board oversight requests months ago. "We would ask them, 'Are you following board governance directives?' And their answer would be, in effect, 'We don't listen to you anymore.'" Now there's no board to answer to. Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California, the top Democrat on the House Science Committee, called it "the latest stupid move made by a president who continues to harm science and American innovation. Will the president fill the NSB with MAGA loyalists who won't stand up to him as he hands over our leadership in science to our adversaries?" That's the actual question. Because while Trump is firing American scientists, China is building research universities at a rate we cannot match. The CDC just buried a study showing vaccines work. RFK Jr. runs HHS. The EPA is gutted. The Forest Service is being broken. Half of American children are breathing dangerous air. And now the people who decide what gets researched in the United States have all been fired by email on a Friday afternoon.

@DrewCohenMoney I can confirm that based on my own behavior. I am using $rddt to research but could make the actual purchase decision much later, especially for bigger things like a car.

Important insights on $RDDT from a former advertising exec at Reddit In short, users do not tend to be ready to make purchase decisions when scrolling through Reddit--they tend to be in research mode. This means that an ad can influence them, but it won't get a sale. The issue with this is that it is hard to prove to the advertiser the value of this versus more down funnel activity (where the user sees an ad and immediately buys something) To address this, Reddit is trying to convince advertisers to increase their "attribution window". This is how long they basically can claim credit for a sale. It is 7 days now and they want to get it to 14 or 30 days. While this measurement issue is key to convincing advertisers to move budgets to Reddit, it is worth emphasizing that according the them the ads have higher Returns of Ad Spend then TV Expert call courtsey of @AlphaSenseInc

@peepoop888 This software selloff is overblown. how much suffering for bulls?

This is actually much more technically complex than what I thought $PATH was doing…. The only way I see an enterprise fully replacing $PATH with a frontier lab’s products is if they fully built UI Path from scratch. Which defeats the point.

@eurofounder Is this net or gross?

The EU is cooking again

Jefferies user survey for $rddt: "Our survey shows RDDT provides advertisers incremental reach and unique low-funnel targeting opportunities, a function of interest-based engagement that often involves a brand or product. Our findings underscore RDDT's opportunity to expand monetization by closing a 70% discount in revenue per user." I like this stock more and more.

Damn it! Just when I bought more $rddt. Okay, I’ll buy more if it drops. Just need to find more dry powder.

@STN_Airport Boycott @STN_Airport.

From 00:01 on 19 March 2026, charges for the Express Set Down area at London Stansted Airport have changed: £10 for stays up to 15 minutes £28 for stays over 15 minutes The Express Set Down area is barrier-free, with payment available online, by phone, or automatically via an AutoPay account. Free drop-off remains available in the Mid Stay Car Park. Pre-booked parking options offer the best value for customers planning ahead. For the latest tariffs on all turn-up parking options: bit.ly/2M7GzoY

@STN_Airport London Stansted airport at least have the decency to say you're raising drop-off prices because you are GREEDY BASTARDS, but don't greenwash this price hike. Not only you are stealing from hard-working people, but you also are insulting our intelligence. You are the worst kind! Greenwashing gone rogue.

@STN_Airport London Stansted airport at least have the decency to say you're raising drop-off prices because you are GREEDY BASTARDS, but don't greenwash this price hike. Not only you are stealing from hard-working people, but you also are insulting our intelligence. You are the worst kind! Greenwashing gone rogue.

$rddt insiders are buying!

Here is what Mizuho says about $path results: "The most notable disclosure was AI product ARR (agentic AI, IDP, Maestro) reaching nearly $200M, with 90% attach among $1M+ ARR customers and a 3x spend uplift vs. non-adopters. Management also introduced a new long-term non-GAAP operating margin target of 30% (up from 20%), reflecting confidence in the leverage of the business model. We are encouraged by the agentic platform expansion and margin trajectory, but lower our PT to $12 from $15 given multiple compression across software. Maintain Neutral." I think we have underestimated the pain it would take the company to move from an RPA platform to a fully agentic automation platform. The numbers on agentic are out of this world, gangbusters, and shows $path's new product has incredible traction. At the same time, it might be that the legacy RPA product is suffering. As a result, you might have this transitional period where the company changes its business model taking longer than initially envisaged. So basically what you have here is $path disrupting its own RPA product. And as we know, these things take time and are painful. I am long.

@Jonatha29815168 If you listen to Daniel. One firm tried 12 months to implement agentic with another vendor without success. $path came in, did in 5 weeks.

@tfanalytics1 you go check all the other Agent platform, there is nothing exciting from PATH, it is just one of the many options, too much competition, better to hold MSFT, GOOG

$path beats across the board, Daniel says demand for agentic is ramping up, yet the stock basically unchanged from before earnings. This is the market we're in right now. It be getting better by summer.

@DigtalPL Full year guidance is always hard to figure out. I guess they want to be able to easily beat their guidance. But yeah, I would agree guidance is too low.

@tfanalytics1 Low guidance, everyone is confused