PasoDe84

Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets. It has become increasingly clear that bond markets will dictate just how long President Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War. The 10Y Note Yield is now up ~45 basis points since the war began on February 28th. This is in-line with the rapid surge seen around "Liberation Day" in April 2025. As the 10Y Note Yield surged above 4.50% in April 2025, President Trump began floating a potential tariff "pause." And, once the 10Y Yield broke above 4.60%, President Trump officially implemented a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025. With the 10Y Note Yield now up to 4.40%, we believe the 4.50% to 4.60% range will be the "line in the sand" again. The US economy cannot handle a 5% 10Y Note Yield.

Copper miners have been crashing since the start of the war Down from their 2026 highs: Oroco Resource Corp. | $OCO: -52% Capstone Copper | $CS: -47% Ivanhoe Electric | $IE: -44% Ivanhoe Mines | $IVN: -43% Ero Copper | $ERO: -40% Taseko Mines | $TGB: -40% Lundin Mining | $LUN: -35% Southern Copper | $SCCO: -30% Solaris Resources | $SLSR: -30% Teck Resources | $TECK: -27% Freeport-McMoRan | $FCX: -25%

🔥🗞 WSJ bombshell: After SpaceX cuts Starlink for Russian forces, Ukraine surges—recaptures 400 km² in Zaporizhia & Dnipropetrovsk, biggest gains in over 2 yrs. "Without Starlink, they were thrown back to Cold War-era comms," says Ukrainian fighter "Konosh." 4/12

GLD monthly fund flows

There’s something supremely saddening and enraging about seeing a hospital running on bare minimum power. Thinking about dialysis patients, babies in NICU, and others tonight in Cuba. This is a blockade of death.