The Bitcoin Layer

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨 RISE of the American Empire with Brent Johnson @SantiagoAUFund breaks down the dollar squeeze nobody saw coming, why deglobalization is breaking the world in half, and how the US-China chip hostage exchange ends.

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨 Nik walks through TBL Pulse behind the paywall, looking at the TBL Liquidity Cycle and Johan's state quadrant, plus why rate cuts are getting priced out and why the $1 trillion hyperscaler CapEx wave makes the AI-doomer labor narrative look badly miscalibrated.

At @TheBitcoinLayer, we're building frameworks that give our readers guidance and clarity. Bitcoin is trading above $80,000 and the market structure is improving on multiple fronts. We mentioned that the low $80,000s was probable, but this is the area bulls need to gain. It won't be easy, so we'll keep watching the data. Bulls still need to gain more ground for a real regime change.

US 10-year yields peaked at over 5% this cycle, and now years have gone by without even really threatening 4.75%. The current rise in yields feels scary, but it is more in line with the premise that 'sub-4% yields' does not offer enough real return for investors. Especially if they view forward inflation in the 3-4% range.

In our latest letter, Nik draws the line in the sand at $73,000. Three consecutive weekly closes above $73,700 turn this level into wildly important support, and holding it for the next month or two is what gathers the speculative energy needed for new highs. Sub-$70,000 was a gift, and we're unlikely to see it again.

From 2017 - 2025, bitcoin’s median nominal change has followed changes in our TBL Liquidity Index. For the most part, as the median change in liquidity becomes more positive, so does bitcoin’s nominal change. In the chart, we observe that a +1-point change in our index from May 1st has been associated with a $1000 increase in bitcoin’s price over the past 9 years. Nothing to write home about for bitcoiners, but certainly a point of reference for us liquidity watchers over the summer.

A snippet from our latest TBL Pro Q&A with @crossbordercap on how the Treasury, not the Fed, is now driving liquidity in the system. Full video available on Substack.

We will be hosting a webinar on May 6th where we’ll walk you through all bitcoin and liquidity metrics in our new dashboard: TBL Pulse. Free to attend, and special offers will be shared with all call attendees. See you all next week! Register here: us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regist…

“Winter” speaks for itself. It does not come often, but when it does, you better shift your mindset to “this might take a while.” From the perspective of multiple indicators, the summer of 2021, when price fell from $60,000 back to $30,000 after the China Mining Exodus, was a “mini-bear market.” But even then, price stayed in the “Bearish Zone” and never entered “Winter.” When winter comes, it stays for a while. (From @JohanMBergman latest piece in our Substack)

A story making headlines a few months back: K-shaped economy. Since the early 2020s, the correlation between US consumer sentiment and the output gap in the economy (i.e., the difference between real GDP and potential GDP) has completely faded. Before, consumer sentiment would rise alongside an economy that would outperform its potential. Since COVID, despite a more productive economy (output gap improvements on the chart above), consumers are not feeling the benefits. Could the wealth effect from ATHs in equity markets bring the correlation back? Does the average consumer even own enough equities to feel the effects? This dynamic is a key narrative we’ve been studying as a matter of national importance for the current administration. Chart credit to: @TimmerFidelity.

🚨 NEW VIDEO 🚨 UAE QUITS OPEC: The Offshore Dollar Era Is Changing with Matt Dines @LeveredUSTs on the dollar system remake underway, why UK gilts are screaming again, and how oil trade settlement is rerouting from London to New York.

Since the start of February, our TBL Liquidity Cycle’s correlation with the S&P 500 has spiked to nearly 90%, its highest 200-day window correlation level on record (just a little over COVID’s readings). This raises our confidence level in our indicator’s accuracy to locate short-term liquidity tailwinds (and headwinds) for risk assets…at least in relation to recent years.

Here is our open interest and funding rate monitor on TBL Pulse looks like the negative funding rate conditions are mostly resolved as open interest steadies after the early April climb

Private sector liquidity is shrinking as more capital is being absorbed by the real economy. Higher energy costs, rising working capital needs, and AI capex are pulling funds away from financial assets. @crossbordercap explains in this clip. We’re hosting a live Q&A with him tomorrow inside TBL Pro.

In TBL's latest letter, @timevalueofbtc recaps several days in Washington presenting a stablecoin blueprint to Commerce, Treasury, and the White House. The appetite for bitcoin inside the US government is far greater than we expected, and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve always managed to find its way into the conversation.

Before the new year, we noted that diversification from concentrated AI exposure in US equities (as well as expected sideways movement in US Treasuries) was becoming a scarce quality across assets. As the chart shows, that quality has become even scarcer. Most assets have shifted up and to the right, meaning they are now moving in greater tandem with both US equities and Treasuries. Three assets stand out: gold, the dollar, and Brent crude. Gold's correlation with Treasuries swung from -25% to +25%. Brent's correlations with the S&P 500 and Treasuries plummeted to -35% and -40%, respectively. And the dollar's correlation with Treasury prices has normalized back into negative territory (meaning its correlation with yields has turned positive again). While most assets became more correlated, the dollar and Brent have proven to be the strongest equity and Treasury diversifiers so far this year.

Five years of returns across gold, stocks, bitcoin, and treasuries tell you most of what you need to know about where the dollar is headed. Nik walks through it in the latest Global Macro Update. Full video on Substack for TBL Pro.

"Are macro/liquidity conditions good or bad for bitcoin right now?" ^ This is the question that we've tried to answer with the TBL Liquidity Indicator It said "bad" on January 14th, then switched to "good" on April 8th. Good track record so far. Get involved!

Deribit's May expiry is bullish. Every expiry after it, through December, leans bearish. The same traders who positioned correctly before the drop to $60K are telling you what they think happens after this rally. @JohanMBergman walks through it in his latest letter.

Bitcoin is up 30% off the lows Bitcoin is up 20% since my “Jane Street bottom” call Bitcoin is up 10% since TBL Liquidity Indicator switched from Sell to Buy Stay humble and be careful with leverage! Want TBL Liquidity? Start free: research.thebitcoinlayer.com