F Man
88 posts
@thefman00 I'm talking about the stock market.
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The secular bull is far more likely to die from surging yields than from the crash everyone, his cat, his dog and his brother won’t shut up about.
The 30-year yield (see below) is on the verge of breaking out of a nearly 3‑year base.
The last time it punched through a prior peak like this—in 1966 over the 1960 high—it marked the beginning of the end for that secular bull market.
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
The Next Commodity Trade is Loaded. In long form: open.substack.com/pub/numinarese…
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#GC futures, potential Clean & Reversal in the making after clearing the February 2 lows. Volatility is truly off the charts, but with proper sizing, I have to give it a try. 😌
#COMEX #gold #futures #CleanReversal
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That’s what the shorts on #SLV did with today’s huge runaway gap: a never-before-seen jump in short sale volume to almost 79 million shares, on an unprecedented 393 million shares traded. 🤪
Absolutely unbelievable. 😵
#Silver #SilverSqueeze #NakedShort
Gold Grump Granpa@GoldGrumpGranpa
Imagine being short #SLV since Friday, waiting for the NY open, and seeing #silver hover just below $110. 🥲 #SilverSqueeze #FinancialMarkets #PreciousMetals
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@paxtrader777 Thanks for these. How about silver? Where do you get these from?
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ES is +24
NQ is slightly better
CL is higher by .50c
Gold +40
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I called and they said it was an AC pipe in the lobby that burst. So I guess it was refrigerant gas that looked like smoke
Ali@marshmarigold
I don't know what happened there was an extremely loud deafening boom and then the lobby filled with smoke and I exited. It was as I was checking out
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Record buying surge on the October gold contract for immediate physical delivery. Two weeks to go and October is already one of the top contracts ever.
econanalytics.substack.com/p/record-gold-…
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@thefman00 haha, I wish I had listened to you a few weeks ago when I started the position. But this is swing trading for you - by nature, I will normally be going against the trend, and as a result, I will get in too early sometimes. Thats why I start small and gradually build the position
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#Gold up nearly 2% today and continues to look strong. It likely pierces $4000 in the coming days and this is a big psychological level and likely gets a pull back there. I remain short and waiting for that pull back. $GLD $GLL
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As expected the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 bps
"After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed." bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-pr…
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@GoldGrumpGranpa So seems as though gold not quite ready to be bullish yet?
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The gap between Managed Money and Swap Dealers on GC futures narrowed a bit this week, driven mainly by a 7.35% cut in Managed Money net longs compared to a 5.98% reduction by Swap Dealers.
Overall a quiet week, with a positive Friday spike upward for gold: notice that GC was up 1% on the day while the euro future +0.97%, so basically 97% of the move up in gold was just dollar weakness. 🥲
I added a little note on the increase of the moving average on the weekly chart, up 14.5 dollars from one week, or +0.49%, just to have a numeric reference on the slow, constant movement of the average toward price. 😌
Gold Grump Granpa@GoldGrumpGranpa
The gap between Managed Money and Swap Dealers on GC futures narrowed slightly as of Tuesday’s close—just under 20k contracts in total. The shift was driven more by Swap Dealers, who cut positions by 5.42%, versus a 3.70% reduction in MM longs. Still, minor moves compared with the recent volatility and the dramatic swings in positioning between the last two COT reports—data we peasants will never see. 🥲 Last week’s textbook Clean & Reversal setup on GC futures delivered as expected, with gold sliding -2.21% on the week—without even the strength for a dead cat bounce. The weekly spot gold moving average now sits at $2930, a milestone few dared to hope for back in late 2022 when gold was breaking below $1700. ☺️ Short-term, the weekly chart doesn’t look pretty. I’ve been pointing this out for months, drawing mild criticism and polite condescension, but reality is we’ve been stuck since April. The good news is that the gap between price and the average is narrowing because the average is catching up, not because price is falling into it. At least so far. 😌 We’re now 13.8% above it, trending steadily down. As always, geopolitical turmoil layered on top of deranged monetary policy and runaway fiscal spending can send gold flying, charts be damned. That’s why you never part with your core physical position. These notes are tactical considerations for medium- to long-term stock/ETF portfolios, where positions run for weeks or months. 😊
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@TheDailyGold Your analysis is so great. Thank you sir!
So tricky what will happen. I go back and forth, but just seems like large correction unlikely right now. There are so many dip buyers waiting at various prices that halts the downside momentum.
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Tuesday 🧵
Technical Status of Gold & Gold Stocks
Gold was extremely overbought in the spring & due for a rest.
It has corrected bullishly but is far from its 200-day moving average.
Meanwhile, breadth indicators in gold stocks are flashing some warning signs.
Let's dig...
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@profitsplusid Who typically wins out? Feel like good chance they clarify that bullion exempt as the letter came from an employee at custom department. Would collapse efp and likely send prices further down.
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Gold's EFP (Exchange for Physical) spread has been all over the place anywhere from $80 to $120 today. That is up from yesterday's surge to $62.
Unless you have deep pockets to deal with the margin, some players are being taken out on a stretcher.
In my opinion, the EFP is where the battle for price discovery is being fought over. Similar to the battle for field control between the offensive and defensive lineman in a football game.
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@JoshPhilipPhair @KingKong9888 @Sorenthek Totally agree, so tricky to figure out what to do here as this was an employee who wrote this. Could easily get clarified today that bullion is actually exempt - wonder when we get that clarification. Likely causes gold to plummet ST (at very least the EFP premium to compress).
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@KingKong9888 @Sorenthek This did not come from the executive branch and is an interpretation of the classification of the original tariffs.
This can change.
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BREAKING: THE TARIFFS ON SWISS GOLD FORMS ARE NOT AN ERROR ACCORDING TO US CUSTOMS.
U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION SERVICE: APPLICABLE SUBHEADING FOR THE GOLD KILO BULLION BAR AND 100 OZ BULLION BAR WILL BE 7108.13.5500 HS CODE
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U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION SERVICE: APPLICABLE SUBHEADING FOR THE GOLD KILO BULLION BAR AND 100 OZ BULLION BAR WILL BE 7108.13.5500 HS CODE
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@DonDurrett Why do you think it is? Very strange. Market maybe doesn’t think Trump will go through and likely also nervous given what happened with copper.
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@TheDailyGold What about this huge news that Swiss gold exports to U.S. now tariffed at 39%?! Doubt it stays long, but would upend the market wouldn’t it?
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Thursday 🧵
A handful of the most important charts, in Gold & Silver, right now!
Let's Go...
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DONALD TRUMP OPENS US 401KS TO CRYPTO AND PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENTS: FT
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