Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو

Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو

@therealBehnamBT

Iran prgm senior director & senior fellow @fdd | Iran & MENA security 🚀☢️/politics📜🛢️+ US FP | 1st gen Iranian-American | RT & follows not endorsement

DC (in exile from NYC) Katılım Mart 2025
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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
Shocked by low oil prices today while there is still a blockade? Don’t be. Just consider changing or diversifying your information sources. There has been much too much doom and gloom from media and markets w/ little grounding in geopolitical reality.
Benny Avni@bennyavni

.@NewYorkSun my Friday column: Trump claims war is about to end. Crude prices are dipping, markets soar. With @therealBehnamBT nysun.com/article/trump-…

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
Well, this video is pretty declarative from the Iranian side: Iran’s enriched uranium is framed as being as sacred as the country’s soil (a low bar for this regime, but will gloss over that for now), and won’t be transferred abroad. Looks like either the US or Iran are fibbing…
Clash Report@clashreport

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei: Iran’s enriched uranium is as sacred as the country’s soil and will under no circumstances be transferred anywhere.

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
🚨Not to be dismissed. No deal is at hand yet and Iranian hardliners (sample 👇: commentator, professor, IRGC-linked semi-official news agency) are already critical of Iran’s alleged “concessions.” This dynamic (aka criticism of Iranian gov positions from the regime’s own hard right flank is not merely a 2-level game (CC: Putnam: 1988) for leverage, but an actual position derived from their anti-accommodationist and anti-American ideology and “principles.” US hawks did not largely seem to understand/care back in 2015-2018 about how the JCPOA could have at once been a fatally flawed nuclear deal for the US and also one which hardline elites in Tehran opposed and railed against as a concession and even treason. This dynamic will matter very much to those trying to make sense of elite politics in a post-Khamenei Islamic Republic, as well as where the remnants of society that are pro-regime are. It will also matter very much to those looking to press upon those fault lines and cleavages in a post-war scenario vis a vis the rump regime.
Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو tweet mediaBehnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو tweet mediaBehnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو tweet media
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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
As with all of the Islamic Republic’s attempts at appropriation, this too is a shame. Club-swinging is part of the repertoire of Varzesh-e Pahlavani (heroic sport) or Varzesh-e Bastani (ancient sport), a workout preformed in a Zoorkhaneh (house of strength), which is a pre-Islamic (initially Zoroastrian, though over the centuries increasingly Islamized via Shiite and Sufi belief and practice) spiritual gymnasium. Many of its movements and workouts draw on a military logic and aim to represent the synthesis between physical / spiritual / moral ardor and discipline. In the video below, the clubs have now been made to look like ballistic missiles 🚀 in a bid to extol the role of these weapons in the regime’s resistance narrative 🙈.
ايران اينترنشنال@IranIntl

ویدیوی منتشرشده از تجمعات حامیان حکومت نشان می‌دهد یکی از ورزشکاران روی صحنه میل‌های شبیه موشک را به دست گرفته و حرکات نمایشی باستانی را با آن انجام می‌دهد.

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
If you ever needed proof that the stock market was a graph 📈📉of rich people’s feelings check out the reaction today to Iran now alleging that the Stait of Hormuz is open. Mines still present. The IRGC insists on ships using Iranian waters. And a US blockade is in effect. 🤔
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Max Meizlish@maxmeizlish

Beware of the spin. President Trump has announced that the strait is open. Iran, however, has said the strait is open — but only through the Iranian-controlled corridor. Meanwhile, the US Navy blockade remains in effect. Markets are responding as though the strait is completely open to all. That is not true.

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
An important point not to miss in this IDF in Farsi account’s bid for a victory lap re Operation Rising Lion: The sole reference to Israeli strikes against Iran’s apparatus of repression during the 40-Day War did not provide numbers for those strikes. Instead it said: “Attacks against [targets like] command headquarters… in addition to the repressive institutions like the Basij and ministry of intelligence have been among the other targets struck which led to the weakening of the regime and its impact will be seen in the long term.”
ارتش دفاعی اسرائیل | IDF Farsi@IDFFarsi

🔵 جمع‌بندی عملیات «#غرش_شیران» توسط سخنگوی فارسی زبان ارتش اسرائیل، سرهنگ دوم کمال پنحاسی. این عملیات در یک همکاری تاریخی با ارتش ایالات متحده، به منظور وارد آوردن ضربات سنگین به رژیم تروریستی ایران و و رفع تهدیدات موجودیتی علیه کشور اسرائیل در درازمدت صورت گرفت.

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
@lrozen It “paved the way” for JPOA might be more accurate, but even if goodwill pleasantries alone, it followed the 2012 secret round in Oman and also broke the taboo of presidential direct talks/contact. I’d love to know who was on the other line in Iran!
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Laura Rozen
Laura Rozen@lrozen·
@therealBehnamBT Think Obama spoke by phone with Rouhani, but don’t believe he directly negotiated with them.
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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
🚨🚨🚨 Another interesting development: Trump reportedly has been directly negotiating w/ Islamic Republic officials via phone. The last US president to do so via phone was Obama in 2013 to Rouhani. The declassified call log and transcript will be a must read!
بهمن كلباسى@bbckalbasi

سناتور گراهام دیشب در فاکس نیوز مدعی شد ترامپ شخصا تلفنی با مقامهای جمهوری اسلامی گفتگو کرده است. گفتگویی که با بلند کردن صدایش و تهدید تند همراه بوده. تا آنجا که صدای ترامپ تحت تاثیر قرار گرفته.

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
🚨Per the President’s latest Truth Social post, “No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form.” Holding the line on not underwriting the Islamic Republic’s rearmament will be critical to getting a better deal than the one Trump long campaigned against.
Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو tweet media
Axios@axios

🚨 SCOOP: The U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. axios.com/2026/04/17/ira…

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
Who is at the helm in Tehran today? Read @raghavanreports’s latest in the @NewYorker w/ 2 cents from yours truly about the expedited direction of the IRGC ascendancy in Iran, which began decades ago w/ Khamenei’s supreme leadership and the post Iran-Iraq War reconstitution surge.
Sudarsan Raghavan@raghavanreports

WHO IS THE U.S. NEGOTIATING WITH IN IRAN? As Trump searches for a friendly successor to the Ayatollah in Tehran, the leadership vacuum in the Iranian regime has been filled by hard-line members of the Revolutionary Guard. My latest story for @newyorker newyorker.com/news/the-lede/…

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
The question is, how does central authority (or what is left of it) in Beirut use this time to turn the tide against Hezbollah as the start of a process. And if it can’t/wont, what does that say for what comes next in Lebanon?
Yalda Hakim@SkyYaldaHakim

"We've been saying that Hezbollah's weapons are a liability to the Lebanese." Lebanese Minister of the Displaced @ShehadiKamal says #Lebanon has paid a "very high price" for Hezbollah and Iran's ambitions in the region.

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
This too, should be setting off alarm bells for the US and Israel. Conversely worth noting that the assessment comes from European and GCC officials…
Alex Wickham@alexwickham

Exclusive: Iran Has Limited the Impact of US Strikes, Intelligence Says Pre-war planning meant Iran’s military was able to mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments — which also say it retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails. Tehran has sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and its most senior leaders have been killed. But operational planning undertaken in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximising the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments said. Plans put in place by Iran to replace senior military leaders in the event they were killed meant the country was able to minimize disruption to its command and control structures when they were targeted in the first days of the war, the people said. It also appears that Iran retains solid reserves of long-range missiles, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. It still has thousands of drones in its armoury, the people added. These provide a much more nuanced picture of the outcomes of the US-Israeli operation than that portrayed by Trump and US administration officials. The effectiveness of Iran’s earlier military planning also raises the prospect that it could use the current ceasefire to make preparations for any resumption of hostilities. Story with @EllenAMilligan @AlbertoNardelli >>> bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
Speaking of time and space for regeneration and rearmament, look who else is lauding the Lebanon ceasefire that just went into effect: Ghalibaf and Qa’ani of the Islamic Republic.
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FDD@FDD

Analysis from @DavidADaoud: "This ceasefire comes at an inopportune time in the fight against Hezbollah. The group is on the cusp of losing Bint Jbeil, a symbolically and militarily significant locale, and 10 days may give Hezbollah just the reprieve necessary to regroup and reinforce itself in the town, preventing the Israelis from taking it. If this is coupled with continued inaction against the group from the Lebanese side — and so far, the signals from Beirut are not promising — then Hezbollah will once again have a path to regeneration and rearmament."

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
🚨🚨🚨YUGE if true: Per Trump, Iran has agreed to hand over the fissile material in enrichment sites struck (aka the “dust”)! The issue (not only what will the US trade for this, but): the ~440-460 kg of UF6 enriched to 60% purity is, per IAEA DG Grossi, in Isfahan (struck w/ TLAMs) and Natanz (struck w/ MOPs). But what about Iran’s 20% stocks? 20% is the threshold for highly enriched uranium (HEU). Iran per the last on site May 2025 IAEA report had ~274.5 kg of UF6 enriched to 20% purity and up to +60 kg in other forms. Iran was producing 20% at Fordow, and btwn Feb-May 2025 had produced 68 kg of UF6 enriched to 20% purity. If negotiations w/ the IRI are going to be pursued, the WHOLE of Iran’s HEU stocks need to be taken out, not just 60%. Enrichment is logarithmic, not linear.
Open Source Intel@Osint613

WATCH 🔴 President Trump: Iran has agreed to no nuclear weapons and will hand over the “nuclear dust.” “Very important is that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and they’ve agreed to that! Iran’s agreed to that and they’ve agreed to it very powerfully.” “They’ve agreed to give us back the nuclear dust that’s way underground because of the attack we made with the B-2 bombers.”

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Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو
The fog of war will take time to dissipate. But victory comes in many shapes and forms, and conflict teaches adversaries about one another as much as about their own vulnerabilities, be they political, economic, military, intelligence, or social.
Bianna Golodryga@biannagolodryga

Supports @Nadav_Eyal reporting that the regime believed it was winning in part because it wasn’t fully aware of the extent of the damage inflicted… “‘My sense is that the scale of the destruction now is much worse than the Iran-Iraq war,’”

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