Vicky Roy

Day 21 of the Iran war. Three weeks. This is no longer a "shock." This is the new reality. Here's where things stand today: Brent crude: $108.84. Up 80% since Feb 28. Hasn't dropped below $100 since March 13. Goldman Sachs says it may stay above $100 through 2027. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for 21 days. The biggest oil supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis. Bigger than anything in the history of the global oil market. This week told the full story: Monday to Wednesday: Markets rallied. Sensex gained ~2,140 pts in 3 sessions. Nifty climbed 2.7%. People started saying the worst was over. Thursday: Israel struck Iran's South Pars gasfield. Iran retaliated — hit a Saudi refinery, Qatari LNG facilities, two Kuwaiti refineries. Brent touched $119 intraday. Sensex crashed 2,200 pts. Worst single session since mid-2024. HDFC Bank fell 5.1% after its chairman resigned citing ethical concerns. ₹12 lakh crore wiped from market cap. Friday: Mild recovery. Sensex +326 pts. Nifty at 23,114. But Nifty futures are at 22,845 — a steep 288-point discount. That tells you Monday could open ugly. The macro picture is deteriorating by the day: → Rupee at 93.59. Record low. Falling fast. → India's crude basket reportedly hit $156/barrel — the price India actually pays. → February inflation: 3.21%. 11-month high. And March — when the oil shock fully hits — will be far worse. → Nomura: RBI rate cuts are done. Policy on hold from here. → Analysts are now seriously modeling $150-$200 oil. Dubai crude already crossed $150. → 30% of India's crude and 90% of its LPG flows through Hormuz. That pipeline is shut. Trump called NATO countries "cowards" for not helping reopen the Strait. Netanyahu says the war may end "sooner than people think." But tankers still aren't moving. And no country has committed warships. India is quietly trying to negotiate safe passage for 22 merchant vessels stuck at the Strait. Two have already reached India through Iranian permission. That's diplomacy, not de-escalation. The market is telling you something with that 288-point futures discount: don't trust the Friday bounce. Nifty is 12%+ below its all-time high. Smallcaps are down nearly 19% from their peak. Autos crushed. Banks under pressure. Consumer discretionary bleeding. But here's what I see that most don't: the crisis is also creating the sharpest separation between strong businesses and weak ones in years. Companies with pricing power? Holding margins. Companies levered to domestic power? Rallying. Companies with dollar-denominated revenue? Currency tailwind. Companies dependent on imported crude as input? Margin destruction in real time. This is exactly the environment my BOSS Mode scoring engine was designed for. 1,400+ companies. Scoring Growth Quality, Margin Strength, Business Health, Earnings Consistency. The system doesn't panic. It separates signal from noise. And right now, the signal-to-noise ratio is the highest it's been since I built it. I'm spending this weekend deep inside the data. Updating every sector model. Building the playbook for Monday and beyond. All of it goes to TSF Inner Circle. Application-only. Limited seats. For serious investors building positions, not chasing headlines. DM "INNER CIRCLE." — Vicky Roy (@thevicky_roy) Founder & CTO, The Stock Filter 15 years Indian markets · MBA Finance · CFA Candidate 11 years global FinTech · 30,000+ students ⚠️ Not investment advice. No stock recommendations. Factual financial intelligence only. DYOR.

7/ The numbers that matter: - 39% revenue growth - 22% EBITDA margin (expanding) - 78% PAT growth - Zero debt, Rs 36.6 Cr cash - Guided 41% CAGR to double by FY27 - Mgmt Sentiment: 8/10 A small CDMO doing big things quietly. Source: Influx Healthtech Q2FY26 Concall Transcript — thestockfilter.com

6/ What to watch: - 90% revenue from nutraceuticals = concentration risk - Packaging bottlenecks limiting utilization despite capacity adds - New facility delayed 1-1.5 months due to monsoon - Top 10 clients = 40% revenue (Carbamide Forte is largest)

Influx Healthtech Q2FY26 — A CDMO quietly compounding at 39% growth, debt-free, with a plan to double by FY27. Thread on what the management said on the concall.

@cadalukaanubhav Seen this pattern fail when management guidance shifts mid-breakout.

#aci Cup and handle breakout shown on chart Can reach target 714 from cmp

@Mr_Chartist Most retail shareholders confuse legal ownership with actual control. Try voting against management in an AGM - you'll learn the difference quickly 😄

📂 Meaning of Ownership in Equity ┃ ┣ 📂 Basic Meaning of Equity Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Means Ownership in a Company ┃ ┣ 📂 Buying Equity Means Buying a Business Stake ┃ ┣ 📂 Shareholder Becomes a Part Owner ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Exists in Proportion to Shares Held ┃ ┗ 📂 "Equity is not only a trade, it is ownership" ┃ ┣ 📂 What Ownership Really Represents ┃ ┣ 📂 A Claim on the Company’s Assets ┃ ┣ 📂 A Claim on Future Profits ┃ ┣ 📂 A Right to Participate in Business Growth ┃ ┣ 📂 A Share in the Residual Value of the Company ┃ ┗ 📂 "Ownership means you stand with the business, not outside it" ┃ ┣ 📂 Part Ownership, Not Full Control ┃ ┣ 📂 Small Shareholding Means Fractional Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 Shareholder Owns a Portion, Not the Entire Business ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Does Not Mean Daily Management Power ┃ ┣ 📂 Control Depends on Size of Holding ┃ ┗ 📂 "Owning one room in the hotel does not make you the manager" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Through Shares ┃ ┣ 📂 Company Ownership Is Divided into Shares ┃ ┣ 📂 Each Share Represents a Unit of Equity ┃ ┣ 📂 More Shares Mean Higher Ownership Percentage ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Can Increase or Decrease with Holdings ┃ ┗ 📂 "Equity ownership is measured in units called shares" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Percentage ┃ ┣ 📂 Calculated from Shares Held ÷ Total Shares ┃ ┣ 📂 Percentage Shows Economic Stake ┃ ┣ 📂 Higher Percentage Means Greater Participation ┃ ┣ 📂 Dilution Can Reduce Ownership Percentage ┃ ┗ 📂 "In equity, percentage matters more than emotion" ┃ ┣ 📂 Economic Rights of Equity Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 Benefit from Share Price Appreciation ┃ ┣ 📂 Right to Receive Dividend if Declared ┃ ┣ 📂 Participation in Bonus and Rights Issues ┃ ┣ 📂 Long-Term Wealth Creation Through Business Growth ┃ ┗ 📂 "Ownership earns when the business creates value" ┃ ┣ 📂 Voting Rights in Equity ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Shareholders Usually Get Voting Rights ┃ ┣ 📂 Voting Happens on Important Company Matters ┃ ┣ 📂 Directors and Key Resolutions May Be Voted On ┃ ┣ 📂 Voting Strength Depends on Number of Shares ┃ ┗ 📂 "In equity, ownership can also carry a voice" ┃ ┣ 📂 Residual Ownership Nature ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Holders Are Residual Claimants ┃ ┣ 📂 Creditors Get Paid Before Equity Holders ┃ ┣ 📂 Debt Has Priority Over Equity ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Takes the Last Claim and Highest Risk ┃ ┗ 📂 "Owners get the upside, but they also stand last in line" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership and Business Performance ┃ ┣ 📂 Strong Business Can Increase Ownership Value ┃ ┣ 📂 Weak Business Can Reduce Equity Value ┃ ┣ 📂 Shareholder Wealth Depends on Company Performance ┃ ┣ 📂 Market Expectations Also Affect Value ┃ ┗ 📂 "Equity ownership rises with good business and suffers with poor business" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Is Transferable ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Shares Can Be Bought and Sold ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Moves from Seller to Buyer ┃ ┣ 📂 Stock Exchange Makes Transfer Easy ┃ ┣ 📂 Demat Form Makes Ownership Electronic ┃ ┗ 📂 "In listed equity, ownership changes with every matched trade" ┃ ┣ 📂 Difference Between Ownership and Lending ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Holder Is an Owner ┃ ┣ 📂 Bondholder or Lender Is a Creditor ┃ ┣ 📂 Owner Has No Fixed Return Guarantee ┃ ┣ 📂 Creditor Has Contractual Repayment Terms ┃ ┗ 📂 "A lender waits for repayment, an owner waits for business performance" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Comes With Risk ┃ ┣ 📂 Share Prices Can Fall ┃ ┣ 📂 Dividends Are Not Guaranteed ┃ ┣ 📂 Business Failure Can Destroy Equity Value ┃ ┣ 📂 Owners Bear Real Business Risk ┃ ┗ 📂 "Ownership sounds powerful until the quarterly result arrives" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Comes With Reward Potential ┃ ┣ 📂 Unlimited Upside in Strong Businesses ┃ ┣ 📂 Compounding Through Long-Term Growth ┃ ┣ 📂 Dividend Plus Capital Appreciation ┃ ┣ 📂 Benefit from Market Re-Rating ┃ ┗ 📂 "Equity ownership takes risk, but it also keeps the upside open" ┃ ┣ 📂 Minority Ownership and Majority Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 Small Holders Usually Have Minority Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 Promoters Often Hold Majority or Controlling Stake ┃ ┣ 📂 Minority Investors Share Economic Benefit ┃ ┣ 📂 Majority Owners Usually Influence Decisions More ┃ ┗ 📂 "All owners are owners, but not all owners have equal power" ┃ ┣ 📂 Dilution of Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 New Share Issue Can Reduce Existing Percentage ┃ ┣ 📂 Company May Raise Fresh Capital by Issuing More Shares ┃ ┣ 📂 Existing Holders Still Own Shares but Smaller Proportion ┃ ┣ 📂 Investors Must Watch Dilution Carefully ┃ ┗ 📂 "Your shares may stay the same, but your slice can shrink" ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership in Listed vs Unlisted Companies ┃ ┣ 📂 Listed Equity Trades Freely on Exchanges ┃ ┣ 📂 Unlisted Equity Is Harder to Transfer ┃ ┣ 📂 Listed Ownership Has Better Liquidity ┃ ┣ 📂 Public Market Improves Price Discovery ┃ ┗ 📂 "Ownership is easier to enter and exit when listed" ┃ ┣ 📂 Psychological Meaning of Equity Ownership ┃ ┣ 📂 Investor Becomes Linked to Business Outcomes ┃ ┣ 📂 Results, Management, and Growth Matter Directly ┃ ┣ 📂 Ownership Requires Patience and Understanding ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Is More Than Watching Price Ticks ┃ ┗ 📂 "If you own the business, you must think beyond the candle" ┃ ┣ 📂 Common Beginner Confusions ┃ ┣ 📂 Buying a Share Is Not Just Buying a Symbol ┃ ┣ 📂 Low Price Does Not Mean High Ownership Quality ┃ ┣ 📂 Quantity of Shares Is Not Equal to Business Value ┃ ┣ 📂 Equity Ownership Is Real but Fractional ┃ ┗ 📂 "Owning 1,000 weak shares is still owning a weak business" ┃ ┣ 📂 Why Equity Ownership Matters ┃ ┣ 📂 It Allows Public Participation in Corporate Growth ┃ ┣ 📂 It Creates Wealth Through Ownership, Not Just Savings ┃ ┣ 📂 It Connects Investors with Productive Businesses ┃ ┣ 📂 It Forms the Foundation of the Equity Market ┃ ┗ 📂 "The stock market begins where ownership becomes tradable" ┃ ┗ 📂 Final Understanding ┣ 📂 Equity Means Ownership in a Company ┣ 📂 Ownership Is Measured by Shareholding Percentage ┣ 📂 Equity Holders Participate in Profit, Growth, and Risk ┣ 📂 They May Get Voting Rights and Economic Benefits ┣ 📂 Equity Owners Are Residual Claimants in the Business ┣ 📂 Ownership Can Create Wealth, but It Also Carries Uncertainty ┗ 📂 "In equity, return is not promised — it is earned through ownership"

@SahilKapoor Problem is most investors will still chase the new-age story even as oil kills their margins. Old economy doesn't tweet, but it compounds.

If oil goes higher, the real pain is for ultra-spenders, new-age, capex-heavy businesses priced at sky-high multiples. Not for old-20th-century, cash-rich, promoter-owned businesses available at multi-year low valuations.

@IndianTechGuide Proposals vs grounded is the gap that matters. How much of that ₹12 lakh crore is actually operational and generating returns?

🚨 BREAKING: Uttar Pradesh’s investment momentum hits unprecedented scale. From ₹4.28 lakh crore in 2018 to ₹33.5 lakh crore in 2023, total proposals now approach ₹40 lakh crore - a 10X increase under Yogi years. timesnownews.com/bizz-impact/ut… With ₹12 lakh crore already grounded and ₹13 lakh crore under execution, UP is fast emerging as India’s most decisive investment destination.

@AnkitFinAlpha @FinAlpha_in Most funds beat the index because they're overweight the momentum names that didn't correct. Wait for the reversal week.

How has been the week for Equity: #Smallcap Funds? 📈 Sorted by Weekly returns [Mon-Fri] Most Smallcap funds ended positive. ✅ The index ended -0.44%

@EyeOn_Trade The hardest part isn't pretending the money's gone - it's knowing when conviction became stubbornness.

Multibagger बनेगा या नहीं — ये भविष्य बताएगा। लेकिन जब भी आप किसी शेयर में दांव लगाएं, पहले दिन से ही मान लें कि ये पैसा डूब चुका है। तभी आप बिना डर, बिना लालच, किसी अच्छे बिज़नेस को लंबे समय तक hold कर पाओगे। क्योंकि असली wealth trading से नहीं… conviction और patience से बनती है। यह सिर्फ जानकारी के लिए है। शेयर बाजार बहुत जोखिम भरा है। आप अपना पूरा पैसा खो सकते हैं।

@Keval_IM Merger overhang was always going to be messy. Question is whether the fundamental franchise is intact or if this is structural damage.

HDFC bank lost 3,22,560 CR market cap in year 2026 And this is just March. #StockPortfolio #HDFCbank #investing #india

@MrFinterest Order inflow is nice but watch the execution timeline - that's where casting companies usually stumble when scaling this fast.

Interesting data: Highest ever single month order inflow 🔥🚀 #SimplexCasting scaled up 120% CAGR growth over last 3 years. While the revenue has just reached RR of 250crs. It has now started getting order worth 60+crs in single month itself. On a trajectory to become large! Mcap only 380crs (No reco, D-Invested)

@Alphamojo1 Weight in indices tells half the story. Real impact is when HDFC sneezes, FII algos catch a cold across financials 😄

📊 Why HDFC Bank Is So Important to the Indian Market?

@Rahul_Invest Bear markets don't create multibaggers. Management execution during tough times does. Most people confuse cheap prices with good businesses.

How to find a #multibagger in a bear market 🧵 Bear market = fear everywhere Prices falling, news negative, people panicking But this is exactly where future multibaggers are quietly built. Here’s a simple way to find them ⬇️ Don’t follow price, follow business Stock price can fall 50%… But check if the business is still doing fine: • Sales steady or growing • Profit not collapsing • Debt under control If business is okay but price is down... interesting. Look for boring companies Multibaggers don’t look exciting in bear markets. No hype No trending tweets No “next big thing” noise Just consistent numbers every quarter. Boring = powerful. Check if promoters are confident Simple signal: • Promoters buying shares • No heavy selling • No funny dilution If insiders are increasing stake, they know something. Find companies getting stronger quietly While others struggle, winners improve: • Gaining market share • Expanding capacity • Reducing costs Bear market kills weak players... strong ones grow bigger. Price down, but business same or better This is the sweet spot. If: Price is down But: Business is stable or improving That gap = opportunity. Avoid “story” stocks If the company is all about future dreams and no current profits… skip. In bear markets, only real businesses survive. Buy slowly, not all at once Don’t try to be a hero and catch the exact bottom. Buy in parts. Add more when conviction increases. Simple truth: Bull market makes money fast. Bear market builds real wealth. Most people quit here. A few people study, buy smart, and wait. Those few catch the next multibaggers. #Investing #LNPR

@Yashpatel9966 2023 was easy mode. Everyone was a genius in that bull run until they weren't.

Good Old Days 2023 Breakout stocks was on fire 🔥