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I was just doing some digging on this and I think you hit the nail on the head. Carney is running the elbows up 2.0 playbook to get a majority. I think Trump is in on it too.
A few little known facts that people are t discussing:
- USMECA not being renewed activates a sunset clause which keeps the agreement in place for 10 years (2036)
- if the US were to use the escape clause it would open up a 6 month window for them to leave, key here is this would need to be voted on my congress so he really would have to do this before May for this to have a chance of passing
Here’s the play:
- Carney: He will use this to get a majority via elbows up 2.0 and probably lower rates
- Trump will try to leverage this to appeal to US farmers (get rid of Canadian Dairy cartel) and US auto-workers (stop building in Canada and Mexico)
I’m not sure how much the populace will buy it due to the shocks that are bound to happen next year, but I think they are both banking on the and will shake hands in 2027.
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