Will Wolf ✌🏻 🚀

On a short enough time horizon, all investment success is indiscernible from luck

Aleph, our fully autonomous AI agent system for formal verification, aced all major theorem proving benchmarks including PutnamBench, VeriSoftBench, and Verina

Sometimes I wonder what twitter would have been like in 1999

The Google Threat Intelligence Group has detected the first known instance of a threat actor using an AI-developed zero-day exploit in the wild. While the attackers planned a wide-scale strike, our proactive counter-discovery may have prevented that from happening. This finding is part of our new report on AI-powered threats.

@nic_carter @Kazanjy But then who would vote for the dems??

@Kazanjy fun fact, if they stopped funding (fraud-ridden) healthcare explicitly earmarked for illegals, CA wouldn't have a budget deficit.

Not only is all of California's job growth all healthcare, probably 50% of it is state funded fake "home health aide" makework fraud.

We’re excited to announce our non-binding agreement with @GalaxyHQ to launch a first-of-its-kind $125M ecosystem liquidity fund to deploy capital into high-quality DeFi protocols and generate risk-managed returns that increase our ETH per share. The Galaxy Sharplink Onchain Yield Fund will be managed by Galaxy Digital and will target onchain liquidity strategies and early-stage protocol support. 👇🧵

@aakashgupta You can’t get current earnings yield by dividing by the CAPE, you need to use the current PE, which is ~31.85. The current earnings yield is ~3.14%. These 2 ratios do not mean the same thing. multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-rat… multpl.com/shiller-pe

Robert Shiller's gauge just hit 42.05. The U.S. stock market has only been this expensive once in 150 years. That was March 2000. Six weeks later the S&P 500 peaked. The index then lost 49% in real terms over 30 months. The 2000 high was not reclaimed in inflation-adjusted dollars until 2014. The simple "CAPE is high, sell" trade has been wrong for over a decade. The gauge crossed 25 in 2014. Anyone who sold then has missed the S&P going from 2,058 to 7,399. That's a 260% price return before dividends. Shiller himself has said CAPE is not a timing signal. The real signal is forward 10-year returns. At CAPE above 40, Shiller's own regressions put expected real return at roughly zero. The historical range spans -3% to +3% annualized. Your $100K becomes $100K in 2036 dollars. The math today is worse than the chart shows. The S&P 500's earnings yield is 1 divided by 42.05. That works out to 2.38%. The 10-year Treasury pays 4.38%. The equity risk premium is negative two percentage points. The last time investors were paid less for owning stocks than bonds was the year 2000. Compare the three valuation peaks. 1929: CAPE 32, 10Y at 3.6%, ERP -0.5%. 2000: CAPE 44, 10Y at 6.3%, ERP -4.0%. 2026: CAPE 42, 10Y at 4.4%, ERP -2.0%. Only one of those years shows up in this chart. The chart starts in 1978. The two prior episodes of negative ERP at this magnitude both ended in a decade of zero real return for the index. What's holding it up is visible in the data too. Q1 2026 earnings beat estimates by 18.2%. Net profit margins hit 13.4%, the highest on record. Mag7 alone drove S&P earnings growth to 27.1%. Capital is being delivered to AI infrastructure at a rate that justifies higher multiples on those names. The risk is what happens to the other 493 companies if AI capex normalizes. The forward P/E for the index is 21.0 against a 10-year average of 18.9. Strip out the seven names and the rest looks more like 2000 than 1995. Shiller won the Nobel for one finding. Long-run returns are determined at the purchase price. The S&P 500 just became a negative-yield carry trade.

On May 7th, Governor Kathy Hochul announced that New York's Fiscal Year 2027 budget will become the first law in the United States to mandate surveillance software inside every 3D printer sold within the state. It will make it a Class E felony to possess or share a 3D-printable file capable of producing a firearm component. Every printer sold in New York must ship with print-blocking algorithms that scan each job in real time and refuse to execute anything the algorithm flags. The sales pitch is "ghost guns." The mechanism is a permission gate inside a machine you paid for. Pilot tests of the proposed algorithm by an open-firmware team triggered the block on 17% of non-weapon prints. Brackets that resemble triggers. Cylinders that resemble barrels. A model train coupling. A bottle opener. The algorithm cannot tell. It will refuse the print and log the attempt to whatever server the manufacturer is required to maintain. The same arithmetic the printing-press licensors used in 1660. The same arithmetic the Stationers' Company used to brand a printer's son for distributing tracts the Crown had not approved. The same arithmetic the early DRM crowd used to make a DVD ripper a federal criminal in 1998. A tool you bought, in a room you own, with electricity you paid for, becomes a deputy of the state at the moment of purchase and remains one for the lifetime of the device. Anything that takes a digital design file and outputs a physical object is now within the reach of a state that has declared it owns the question of which physical objects you are permitted to bring into existence inside your own house. The fence has spent forty years moving inward. Around the song first. Around the page. Around the cipher. Around the camera roll. Now, finally, around the workbench. The state has run out of digital territory to enclose and has started enclosing the atoms. The maker who prints a bracket for a broken washing machine tonight commits the same act, technically, that the law is written to stop. The algorithm will not know the difference. It is not designed to know the difference. It is designed to fail closed, to refuse first and let the human appeal upward through whatever bureaucratic channel the manufacturer designs, if any, on whatever timeline the manufacturer chooses, with whatever paper trail attaches to the request. Permission to print, denied. Submit a ticket. Wait. Unfortunately for New York, and fortunately for us, the firmware on every consumer 3D printer is open or near-open. All of them forkable, all of them flashable, all of them already installed on millions of machines outside the reach of any future New York compliance certificate. The CAD files at issue are mathematical descriptions of geometry that will be mirrored on a thousand drives in a thousand jurisdictions before the ink on the bill is dry. The state cannot bind geometry. It can only bind the people who agree to be bound. Forty years from now nobody will remember the ghost gun argument. They will remember the year a state government decided that the physical output of a private machine was the state's business at the point of manufacture.

In just under 9 months we “made” enough to retire almost 10 days of new debt!

If we had 500 more trillionaire founders, your standard of living would be 2x higher. If we had 500 more politicians, your standard of living would be lower. Makes you think 🤔

Do you think Trump wants to send them handguns and bolt action rifles with 10 round magazines? Think about this when your state tries to disarm you. They understand what they are doing.

Many folks have asked us if this type of vulnerability affects our new @FOUNDATIONdvcs Passport Prime device. The quick answer is no! We made QuantumLink, a post-quantum encrypted comms protocol, that creates a tunnel through the Bluetooth chip. The BT chip can't see inside.

Current AI custom prompt: You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can. Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.

Elizabeth Warren was key in blocking the JetBlue/Spirit merger to "protect consumers"… The result? Spirit liquidates after 34 years. 16,000 employees just lost their jobs and the bigger airlines can now raise prices even more. Always wrong, never in doubt.

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Regulatory capture: When the biggest companies become intertwined with the state, competing with them becomes impossible. Regulation doesn't constrain the biggest companies, it entrenches them.

41 kidnappings of crypto holders in France in 3.5 months of 2026. Why? 🥖 French tax officials selling crypto owners' data to criminals (Ghalia C.) + massive tax database leaks. Now the state also wants IDs and private messages of social media users. More data = More victims.

@MishGEA @tyillc @jlounsbury59 @USRoute41 @mtmalinen @jimiuorio @JonFraserTF @GratkeWealth @grok @dgsommersmkts @jennycohn1 @gothburz Every administration is more corrupt than the last. Every time we elect someone new, that is the most corrupt administration in history.

Massive Insider Trading by the Trump Administration or Its Hot Connections @tyillc @jlounsbury59 @USRoute41 @mtmalinen @jimiuorio @JonFraserTF @GratkeWealth @grok @dgsommersmkts @jennycohn1 H/T @gothburz Details prove insider trading is not conjecture. mishtalk.com/economics/insi…

Warrantless backdoor searches allow the government to spy on Americans’ private information without their knowledge or meaningful oversight. The Constitution promises Americans freedom from unreasonable searches. Civil liberties must be protected.

Today at 10:30am ET, @RepBoebert and I will host a press conference at the Capitol House Triangle to announce our new Surveillance Accountability Act. It requires government searches to be conducted with a warrant based on probable cause, in accordance with the 4th Amendment.