timbogong

@Crashman_X French Provincial Masterpiece in, checks notes, fucking Yagoona!!!!!

Property removed. Some people didn't check the postcode before overcapitalising on a new build in that area.

@Potstirrer111 If it means that all sockless “buyers” agents, Facebook property gurus and every other ticket clipping moron have to head back to working the drive through window of red rooster from whence they came , the changes will be completely worth it.

Tell you the thing I’m most excited about with negative gearing changes on existing homes. How much it’s going to fuck up all the buyers agents that have popped up over the last few years charging 30k to buy a shitty fibro in a country town. Good luck convincing your clients your targeting on instagram to continue buying them when they can’t deduct the interest on the loan and they’re out of pocket $500 a week

@cpbaken @bowtiedstocks @samstrades It also takes years for a 50% drop in values. If you’re hoping to get a house at half of today’s prices you’ll need to wait 3-5 years and hope you still have a job to pay for it at that time, which at 15% UE, to achieve such drops, you probably won’t.

@timbogong @bowtiedstocks @samstrades A lot of people don't realise that job losses tend to happen after a property downturn. It's counterintuitive, but unemployment is mostly a lagging indicator

When I say Aussie propadee will fall I’m not saying it will be a uniform 30% fall in each city / market across the country Look at Melbourne for example - price growth only 9% last 5 years That won’t fall as hard as a south east Qld or Brisbane for example where I think the price falls will be closer to 50% or more in real terms

@bowtiedstocks @samstrades I agree that SEQ is the most overvalued property market in human history, but you need a really big spike in UE and credit restriction to lose 50%. It also takes years to play out, enough time for the govt to throw the kitchen sink at it to keep the show on the road.

It’s a very thinly traded market with low liquidity and little stock for sale, so it won’t take all that much to move the needle Heaps of white collar jobs at risk with corporate cost cutting, AI efficiency, etc And higher rates slows everything down and some companies naturally go bust I don’t believe everyone can just be an NDIS dog walker at $90 an hour and this can work out for our economy and propadee markets medium term

@88888sAccount @Kalshi Plenty of mass, no energy

JUST IN: Elon Musk says future currencies will only be "mass and energy"

@88888sAccount Best use case for AI.

@Potstirrer111 Getting it through parliament is the thing. Most MPs are balls deep in investment properties and will always back the horse named Self Interest.

If they limit the cgt discount and negative gearing to new builds only and get it through parliament in my view it will be the best government policy since Howard and the gst. Encourage investors adding new supply Tax investors that buy existing housing stock.

@Larryjamieson_ @ironic_capital Plenty more arrows in the quiver.

@ironic_capital people continue to underestimate how far we will go to pump

Ok, get rid of the 50% CGT discount Now, make mortgage interest tax deductible for FHB More than 50% of boomers have offloaded their shitboxes to overlevered millennials? Excellent, introduce a land tax

@bowtiedstocks If you have a go, you get a go.

Firmus designs, builds and operates AI infrastructure aka ‘AI factories’ - ‘specialized modular data centres optimized for high density computing workloads’ The company claims its AI data centres have significantly lower power / water / space needs than traditional data centres, along with faster deployment and better total cost of ownership The best in the world and building at half the cost of competitors, naturally… Pretty remarkable stuff given neither of the cofounders have any technical background or dare I say abilities One co-founder’s prior gig was running a small loss making French lingerie retailer The other co-founder’s most notable achievements are having a stint in Cooma Correctional, and being house husband to a publicity queen This set up is hilarious stuff all around 😂

@bowtiedstocks Vibes

I’ve been reading up on the Firmus planned IPO Wowzers this thing has a few red flags Here are a few I’ve picked up already (I’m sure there’s more too): 🚩 5 years ago this thing was a bitcoin miner 🚩Then pivoted to the ‘hot trend’ thematic of AI 🚩What the business does and the business model is not straightforward to understand 🚩90% of its total contracted value purportedly comes from just two customers, NVDA and an American tech giant 🚩Nvidia is apparently a supplier, investor and a customer of Firmus (circle jerk economy) 🚩Lead Manager is none other than Qld chop shop Morgans 🚩 Neither of the two co-founders have technical expertise 🚩Co-founder Tim Rosenfield’s prior role was running a small loss making French lingerie retailer 🚩Co-founder Oliver Curtis is a convicted insider trading criminal, a crime involving putting his own personal financial gain ahead of the integrity of financial markets laws Yeah good luck to the mug retail bag holders going for this one 🥴

@sydney_ev Incredibly sad.

Ferrari's first ever #EV! (finally a quick ev :P) will sell from $900,000 AUD Dollar bucks. its called the Luce. official premier is in Rome, next month.

@Larryjamieson_ Sounds like a Sydney boomer with a $5 milly home, but driving a 25 year old Camry and looking for ways to get the pension.

Even the guys making out like bandits aren't making out like bandits

@88888sAccount Kings

@bowtiedstocks They don’t call it the lucky country for nothing.

Aussie housing / immigration / Ponzi policy in action 👇

@Larryjamieson_ Sydney real estate agents have them covered.

The American insurance industry has so much to answer for

@bowtiedstocks Isn’t everything?

@timbogong Good chance I reckon Funded by equity maate

I’m surprised a bit by just how high some private school fees are in Brisbane today Many many schools north of $30k + a year in fees or around that mark No tax deductions for these costs either, it’s all post tax money So for high earners, that’s $60k a year per kid of pre tax earnings 3 kids there’s $180k before you get out of bed, clothe or feed them Can keep people running on the hamster wheel for a long time You can also see how what sounds like a reasonably good salary disappears pretty fast

@Larryjamieson_ schadenfreude can be a wonderful thing

Bulk lay offs at former work… oof