Michael Tinker

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to call this the greatest piece of prediction market content created to date.

"post-AGI, no one is going to work and the economy is going to collapse" "i am switching to polyphasic sleep because GPT-5.5 in codex is so good that i can't afford to be sleeping for such long stretches and miss out on working"

GPT 5.5 will be another GPT 5.4 moment.

There is no need to create software to disrupt Microsoft Visio. You can just generate the final image. Prompt: Generate a visio diagram of a corporate network that follows best-practices

@spqr_sulla we want to put a machine of unbelievable power in your hands personally for you to do with as you wish

We acclimate fast, but 5.4 Pro is magic. We're not quite at "solve x for x=unsolved research problem" yet, but it's crazy to me my computer is able to take a vague proposal for an actually novel idea and do super non-trivial math to get to an algorithm which works.

In a recent interview Dario was dismayed why he is considered an 'AI doomer' when he considers his AI outlook to be so positive. Then they build a jaw-dropping model, without a single mention of any new attempts at discoveries, scientific applications or health breakthroughs. Just stories about cyber apocalypse and a researcher eating a sandwich.

@cirnosad Is it even possible to make "covert" use of nuclear weapons?

🐤 Enterprise crypto just hit Nasdaq. $HBR is the first U.S. spot HBAR ETF—bringing registered access to a network governed by names like Google + IBM. Built for the next wave of real-world asset tokenization. Prospectus: hubs.ly/Q049DFBw0 @hedera @HederaFndn

Imagine trying to explain to someone that this best representation of OpenAI history

Gib morning 💜

@citrinowicz They seem just straightforwardly suicidal afaict...nothing more or less.

Can you explain "how the Iranian regime works"? Because they seem to just be trying to maximize the amount of damage they take before US declares unilateral victory, leaving them with no ceasefire, permanent war footing sans air defense vs Israel, a drought of biblical proportions, and the Shahed drone's shelf life as an asymmetric weapon expiring in months. How is this "working" in any sense for them?

For the millionth time: the U.S. still doesn’t understand how the Iranian regime works. That’s why negotiations have failed, why military pressure hasn’t delivered results, and why escalation won’t lead to a breakthrough. Here’s the bottom line: Iran will not surrender, even under heavy bombardment or severe damage to its infrastructure. The regime sees this as a fight for survival. External pressure only strengthens its narrative that the U.S. and its allies are waging war against the Iranian people, not just the regime. They won’t concede to demands they’ve already rejected in the past. And every time Washington raises the stakes, Tehran, and its regional partners will respond in kind. If Trump (or any U.S. administration) wants a deal, it must recognize a hard truth: Iran does not see itself as negotiating from weakness. There is no realistic scenario in which maximum pressure alone forces capitulation even if the U.S. targets strategic assets. Yes, the U.S. can inflict significant damage. But there is no “textbook solution” here, and certainly no path to regime surrender through pressure alone. The only scenario that fundamentally changes the equation is regime change, and short of that, escalation will not produce a different outcome. #iran

What we call borderline isn’t “fear of abandonment” or “fear of intimacy” or whatever flattering but meaningless therapy buzzwords people love to throw around, it’s a cluster of symptoms that basically amount to a failure to progress beyond childhood emotional development but that’s increasingly everyone now

Missed opportunity for, "Don't you think it's a little bit homophonic that we're so focused on the Straits of Hormuz?"

@OrevaZSN The "goal" is finding a low mcap memecoin gem on X

We’re living through a strange inversion: the habits most people can adopt are losing status, while the traits few people can change are becoming the new currency of success. Traits that are widely attainable and reliably linked to success seem to be losing cultural status, while traits that are far less within individual control are becoming more prized. By “attainable,” I mean the traditional, middle-class virtues: showing up on time, keeping your word, working hard, exercising discipline, treating others with respect, staying within the law. These are not evenly distributed, but they are broadly accessible. Almost anyone, regardless of background, can improve at them on the margin. You can be a little more punctual. A little more prepared. A little more conscientious. And those marginal improvements compound. By contrast, many of the traits that now seem to carry greater weight are far less malleable. Physical attractiveness has some room for improvement, but there are clear limits. The same is true of cognitive ability. People can develop skills and knowledge, but underlying aptitude is much harder to move. The ceiling is tighter, and the returns to effort are less predictable. What’s striking is not just this shift, but the accompanying change in how we talk about it. The older virtues are increasingly treated with suspicion or even contempt. Suggest that someone might benefit from working harder or being more disciplined, and the response is often defensive or hostile. The implication is that such advice is naive at best, or unfair at worst—that outcomes are driven primarily by forces outside individual control. Some of that critique is valid. Circumstances matter. But if we lose sight of the habits that remain within reach for most people, we risk devaluing the very behaviors that, historically, have offered the most reliable path to upward mobility.

@Ruesavatar Followed anon because her tweets read with a voiceover that lands...softly

Ok this place is dreary, so respond to this post and I will subtweet you tomorrow. You can then try guess which is yours for fun. 😹❤️

Totally ok, Im waiting for this 6 years 😂