tirymmen
34 posts


Shorting stocks systematically is not easy.
But after 2,196 live trades since June 2021, I am reasonably happy with this SHORT-only portfolio.
Exported directly from IBKR:
• Stocks and indices
• 52% win rate
• 1.16 profit factor
• 0.69 Sharpe
The portfolio internals are more interesting than the headline statistics.
Since last fall:
• Short mean reversion has been miserable
• Short momentum has picked up across stocks and index breakout models
Same lesson again:
I never know which approach will work next.
That is why I combine different short strategies instead of relying on one model.
One sleeve struggles. Another carries the portfolio.
The goal is not one perfect system.
It is a portfolio of robust return drivers.
Live results, not a backtest.

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@onlybreakouts But 1000$ stop could be wide or short depending on the size per trade , right ? In that case wouldn’t the size completely change the outcome ?
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Trading can be super simple.
For example, try this:
✓ Market ➝ E-mini NASDAQ (NQ), 30-minute bars, 24-hour data
✓ Filter ➝ ADX above 17.5 to confirm strength before breakout
✓ Entry ➝ Buy stop above the highest close of N bars back
✓ Exit ➝ End of day
✓ Stop loss ➝ $1,000
✓ Entry window ➝ 8 a.m. to 3 p.m.
It’s one of the few systems that performs well across multiple indexes.
You’ll see why simplicity matters in the comments.

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You spend weeks building a strategy on TradingView or MetaTrader 5.
The backtest looks exactly how you want it.
Consistent equity curve.
Reasonable drawdown.
You feel good about it.
You go live.
And within a few weeks, it falls apart.
You go back to the drawing board.
Optimize again.
Tweak the parameters.
The backtest looks good again.
You try again.
Same result.
This is one of the most common experiences in retail algorithmic trading.
And most traders spend months cycling through it before they figure out why it keeps happening.
It is not the strategy.
It is the validation step that was never done.
Here is what both platforms are missing.
The first gap: no in-sample/out-of-sample testing.
The way it should work is simple.
You build and optimize your strategy on one portion of your historical data.
You reserve a clean, untouched portion that your strategy never saw during development.
Then you test it there.
If the strategy holds on data it was never trained on, you have something real.
If it collapses, you saved yourself real money.
Neither TradingView nor MetaTrader 5 supports this natively.
There are workarounds.
But a workaround is not a workflow, and it does not scale.
The second gap: no walk-forward analysis.
This test tells you whether your strategy can survive the future, not just the past.
Walk-forward analysis runs your strategy across multiple different unseen data windows and checks whether it holds up consistently.
It also tells you whether your strategy handles regular re-optimization well as market conditions change over time.
Every profitable algorithmic trader I know runs this before touching a live account.
Both platforms skip it entirely.
The fix is to build your validation layer separately, then deploy the code.
My workflow: build foundational breakout models in BreakoutOS, run full in-sample/out-of-sample validation and walk-forward testing, then export the PineScript or MQL5 code directly into TradingView or MetaTrader.
Here is what that looks like.
I used 10 years of E-mini NASDAQ data.
Last 3 years reserved as unseen validation data, never touched during development.
The foundational model tested:
> ATR periods: 5, 20, and 40
> Space multiplier: 2.0
> No filters - raw edge only
ATR multiplier 2.0 ranked number one across all walk-forward periods.
Robustness index: 66%.
Recency alignment with the most recent data: strong.
That model is ready to deploy.
Not because the backtest looked good.
Because it survived tests it was never designed for.

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If you are not making money during this run:
You are likely trading the WRONG stocks..
For the last few weeks, all I've done was:
-Focus on strong themes (Semis, space, memory)
-Buy these names on pullbacks into the EMA's
-Hold these winners & don't sell too early
Once these start building bigger bases, now you are going to look for rotation into emerging themes.
How to know where to look?
1. Start With Relative Strength
Emerging themes always leave footprints.
You’ll notice:
-Certain groups stop selling off during weak markets
-They recover faster than indexes
-Multiple stocks in the same niche begin moving together
-Volume starts increasing across the sector
For example:
$IGV was making new highs while $QQQ was still below the previous all time highs
This showed relative strength in the ETF, and software stocks began to emerge with strong setups
2. Scan Weekly Charts First
You will start noticing that when almost every stock in a sector is setup on the weekly timeframe.. and explosive move follows.
Emerging themes usually appear first on:
-Weekly bases
-Weekly breakouts
-Multi-month consolidations
For example data centers recently.. all had a massive weekly base
3. Follow Volume Closely
Volume is one of the clearest signs of institutional participation.
You will start noticing:
-Highest volume EVER print
-Accumulation volume patterns
-Low volume sell offs
-A breakout with expanding volume often signals real demand
This tells you that institutions are piling into the trade
4. Watch for “Character Changes”
One of the earliest clues is a change in behavior.
Examples:
-Stocks stop failing on breakout attempts
-Pullbacks become shallow
-Names begin closing near highs instead of lows
-Weak sectors suddenly start holding moving averages
A new theme usually starts with:
-Better closes
-Better reactions
-Better continuation
before the headlines catch up...
For example $PLTR and $HOOD in the last few days.. starting to act much better and changing their characters.
5. Track News Narratives
Themes are often tied to macro narratives:
-AI spending
-Government backing
-Defense budgets
Follow themes, and stocks that have a REASON to go higher.
For example drone stocks last week, after the news that the government might take a stake...
Now this becomes top watch.
6. Focus on the Leader (Most important)
Every theme usually has:
-a leader
-secondary names
-laggards
The leader is where institutions concentrate first.
Your goal is to find the strongest theme, the strongest sector, and the strongest stock in that sector.
Characteristics of a leader:
-breaks out first
-has the best volume
-holds moving averages best
-reacts strongest after pullbacks
Most importantly... stack probabilities
Theme + Catalyst + Setup + Leading stock = super performance

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@The_Avg_Bear @flash_research Si solo el 5% de los trades genera todo el profit, la curva debería tener saltos más grandes , no ? Parece una curva muy suave para que solo el 5% genere casi todo el profit. Pregunto desde la ignorancia, saludos.
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@flash_research Setup de RR con dependencia muy grande de cola derecha
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8k. $OMEX fue una obra de arte, hasta que dejo de serlo, estoy empezando a arriesgar de manera irracional para terminar 10k y no tiene sentido. Prometo que en breve esta todo listo para sacar las entradas para el evento. Hoy en una entrevista que vamos a dar al respecto voy a mostrar un poco como opere $OMEX en vivo asi que no se lo pierdan.


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@sersansistemas @SergiSersan Buenos días, nunca me llegó la l email que enviarían ayer sabado con la explicación de ORB . Saludos .
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El sistema de trading más lógico y sin emociones ⏱️📊
La estrategia ORB de Toby Crabel es 100% mecánica: rompe arriba compras, rompe abajo vendes. Cero dudas, cero estrés.
¿La conocías o eres más intuitivo? 👇
🔗 Te explico la estrategia paso a paso aquí: youtube.com/watch?v=DIvO-M…
#trading #tradingespaña #estrategiatrading #bolsadevalores #daytrading

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@tirymmen ¡Hola! No te preocupes, el código se enviará este sábado a través de nuestra Newsletter 📩
Si ya estás suscrito, ¡revisa tu bandeja de entrada ese día! Si no, aún estás a tiempo de apuntarte 📈
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🎥 Nuevo vídeo con Víctor, El Psicólogo del Trading
Hablamos de una estrategia de rangos 100% mecánica que lleva 30 años ganando 👀
👉 Ya puedes verlo aquí: youtube.com/watch?v=DIvO-M…
#Trading #PsicologíaDelTrading #TradingAlgorítmico #SersanSistemas #YouTubeTrading

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@sersansistemas Hola @sersansistemas , Excelente vídeo. Una vez más, muchas gracias por compartir tus conocimientos y tu valor.
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@CharlieDLVega @CharlieDLVega es solamente presencial o se puede participar online también ?
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⚡ Formación Small Caps – Madrid
📅 31 Enero 2026 | ⏰ 10–14h (intensivo)
🔥 Llega una formación pensada para traders que quieren dar un salto de nivel, dejar de dudar y empezar a operar Small Caps con criterio.
🔥 Price Action – Intermedio
🔥 Setups – Intermedio
🔥 News – Lectura y planteamiento
🔥 Dilución – De inicio a intermedio
Evento único. Sin paja. Sin teoría vacía.
A por todas.
Si perteneces a AURUM CAPITAL (@aurumcaptl ) Tendrás descuento, escríbenos antes 💚
👇 Enlace
aurumcapitaltrading.com/eventos

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@LoneWolfeTrader Great results, even when the month was difficult you manage to end it up very well. Do you use same dollar amount for each trade? Let’s say 10k for a stock that is up 40% and the same for another that is up 90% ? Or depending on de extension/ dilution you put less or more ?
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@Erotikarl Que scanner usas para poder encontrar tantos tickers? Trade ideas ?
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The most satisfying part of my day is when I check the execution data and see that I kept my losses small.
This is what I think is the “falling in love” with the process aspect of trading.
All I want is daily, monthly and career-wide consistency, the money is secondary.
You have to be able to determine which wins are losses and which losses are wins.
It’s not enough to be purely happy/driven/inspired/content with $ results, under the hood you have to know you’ve traded well.
I would never be proud of a trade where I broke every rule in the book, even if it was a career trade.



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@Stratataaa @Jackaroo_Trades @timothysykes Congrats, the great effort is rewarded. Keep up the good work.
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1 million milestone! That was by far the hardest thing I’ve ever went through. So many good days and bad days and I wouldn’t change any of it. Of course this is not the end as you take a look around and see how many monsters have been crushing the small cap game as of late and it’s incredible how much potential there is out there. Joining the @timothysykes challenge back in 2020 changed the course of my life forever. I can’t believe how many people I’ve gotten to connect with around the world from the legendary OTChub, StocksnSteele, GCG, and now the Inner Circle. I can’t wait to see what’s next for me and everyone around 💪🏼

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@BrianLeeTrades Hi Brian, congrats for your results. To keep your loss that small, do you need that the trade goes into your way right the way and take small loss if it does not work in a few seconds? Thank you very much for sharing that much value to the community, it is very appreciated.
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@Erotikarl Hola carlos , el algo pide los locates también o no so lo tienes que hacer tú ? Gracias 🙏
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