Just a Voice

@BrettErickson28 This will Be Dragged For Months

Increasingly concerned this MOU is falling apart

@rohanpaul_ai The dot com bubble had nothing to do with apps - they didn’t even exist then. No mentions of the capex that was used in telecom - it got so over built that it as part of the bubble too and that was beyond equity holders only.

dot-com bubble vs. a possible AI bubble. From the famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business, “And that’s the real big difference between the dot-com boom and bust and the AI boom. We don’t know whether there’ll be a bust. History suggests there will be a bust. The dot-com boom and bust had no huge capital expenditure in that cycle. In fact, there was very little traditional CapEx, or even R&D, driving it. People started apps. They basically started going on it. This has been the biggest infrastructure run-up I think I’ve ever seen in business. You can go back and compare it to the automobile business 100 years ago. The amount of money that’s being put into AI CapEx is immense, which means that when the correction comes, the pain will be more intense. And herein lies the second problem. The dot-com boom and bust was almost entirely equity-funded. You think, so what? Well, when the bust came, those shareholders lost 60%, 70%, 80%, or 90% of their money. You felt sorry for them, but the loss was restricted to the shareholders. The problem with the AI CapEx boom is that not only is it immense, but a big chunk of it is funded with debt, and the debt is coming from private capital rather than banks. There’s a very real chance that if there’s a correction and companies start having problems, that problem is going to show up as distress and default, and that really doesn’t stay restricted. It spills over into the rest of society. I’m not saying it’s going to be 2008, but 2008 is an example of what happens when lenders overreach, when they lend money at too low a rate, and the correction comes. The pain spills over. So that is my concern with this big market illusion: the potential societal cost of having to deal with debt coming due that you’re unable to pay. It’s much more painful than your share price dropping 90% and you feeling the pain." ---- From "Excess Returns" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

@mehdirhasan @Timodc @Ali_Najmi So after we get a reality TV host becoming POTUS you’re good to go with a former musician and party promoter and another nepo baby… oh wait he was assemblyman for a minute.

@Timodc @Ali_Najmi There’s literally no one like him in American politics right now.

Guy just has it. If he was born in Queens he’d be the front runner.

@Timodc This is entirely just entertainment. You live in NO. I detest DJT. Been in NYC for 30 yrs…. Mamdani hasn’t improved anything. This is a nice little Disney Movie speech in front of the most primed crowd you can get with the easiest thing to talk about: Sports, Triumph and Resolve

@jaylovesarguin @Kanew @NYCMayor @ZohranKMamdani @nyknicks @NY_KnicksPR I’m not defending the guy… but how many more people do you think go with a longer parade route? It was a mess, I agree but at least it was contained in lower Manhattan…. I know many that didn’t go bc of the location. Not saying that was the intention but the broken clock theory

@tok2myself @Kanew @NYCMayor @ZohranKMamdani @nyknicks @NY_KnicksPR Every other parade is longer. They literally had the Puerto Rican parade last weekend and it was 3x as long and without check points. Mamdani is a joke

So just to be clear - Dolan says the Knicks have to go the White House to “respect the office”, but he and his son can disrespect the @NYCMayor’s office and try to humiliate @ZohranKMamdani on the most important day in decades? GTFOH. @nyknicks @NY_KnicksPR

@jaylovesarguin @Kanew @NYCMayor @ZohranKMamdani @nyknicks @NY_KnicksPR Do you live in NYC?

@Kanew @NYCMayor @ZohranKMamdani @nyknicks @NY_KnicksPR If Mamdani had any respect for Knicks fans he would have made the parade longer and more accessible. He’s a clown.

@JakeWSimons A guy in London knows the local US political disposition? You are Way off - this is his only hope of keeping a career

This man’s career is over

@Drewby22222222 @HunterBiden That’s what you think is America coming back? A corporate sponsored event that didn’t change one thing in anyone’s life. Carry on to your end while you applaude those ending it for you

Not a real good way to land a fight Hunter. That shit was America as fuck. I had chills throughout the entire event because it felt like America was coming back. If that South Lawn is for us then I can’t think of a better thing to do with it. A legendary event that I will never forget. You and Don Jr. Naa I’m good.

Dear Joe, I wish I could sit down with you face to face and explain why so many of us were offended by the UFC fight on the South Lawn of the White House. For me, it had nothing to do with the UFC or who showed up for the fights. The brand you and Dana have built is a bona fide American success story. More power to you. As for the fighters, in my book, anyone brave enough to put it all on the line in the arena is remarkable to witness. Their dedication and discipline inspire me. I don’t understand anyone who can’t admire that. And as for the people who attended, I, for one, love Shane Gillis. I think he’s hilarious and brilliant. It was a show. A once-in-a-lifetime spectacle. I can’t blame anyone for wanting to witness it firsthand. My problem is that I believe some of our public spaces are sacred. And unlike many of the great powers that came before us, these American monuments belong to all of us. Not to whoever happens to hold power at the moment. The White House does not belong to Donald Trump. It does not belong to any President. It belongs to the people. To treat it as Caesar treated the Colosseum is antithetical to everything our founding fathers fought for. This is not Rome. Presidents are not emperors doling out bread and circuses for the peasants. The White House is the People’s House. This “celebration” could have happened in any stadium within a stone’s throw of the South Lawn. No one would have had an issue with it. But that was obviously Donald Trump’s whole point. By holding the event on the South Lawn, what he was saying to the rest of us is: “This is my house. I own it. I will do with it what I please. I’ll build a colosseum and have the gladiators fight under my gaze. I’ll tear down the East Wing. I’ll pave over the Rose Garden. I’ll cover everything in gold and marble. I’ll erase the names of all the men who came before me.” The fights were an exhibition of imperial domination, not a celebration of our 250th anniversary as a democracy. The White House is not Buckingham Palace. It is not the Palace of Versailles. It is not the Forbidden City of Beijing. It does not belong to an emperor, or a king, or a commissar. The White House belongs to us. All of us. The person who sits behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office is nothing more than an honored guest. A temporary caretaker. The President is our servant. Not our Caesar. Respectfully, Hunter P.S. Cage match between me and Don Jr.? Your call on the venue. Anywhere but the South Lawn.

@MattRJBrodsky Yes, you are

I can't believe I voted for this pathetic clown 3 times. WTF? What a disgrace.

@DarioCpx From municipal bond traders to equity traders - a large % are in NY & Trump supporters. They’re not objective. They are going to believe Trump updates on the War and anything else - bc if they don’t they’d have to admit they were wrong. That’s worse than a bad bonus for them.

I have a strong gut feeling that, 2 weeks ago, Trump was informed about oil inventories approaching critically low levels, forcing the price to snap back to reality because soon there won't be enough to fulfill all the demand. Since then, he has done all he could to "reopen" the SoH, to the point he ended up accepting all "unacceptable" Iran's requests that have NEVER changed since April Now the US government is rushing to reopen the SoH, aiming to restore the traffic back to the pre-war state. This is something that, objectively, is impossible to achieve because of the mines in the water, Iran's strong grip over it, the war damage that will take months to repair, and the shipping industry unwilling to venture within the strait till there is 110% certainty the conflict won't escalate again. As I write these words, the Israeli army is still in Lebanon and has no intention to leave it. Objectively speaking, this means there won't be any official MoU signature between the US and Iran on Friday that starts the 60-day negotiation phase. Furthermore, Trump already said in a NYT interview on Monday that if he does not reach a satisfactory agreement with Iran, especially on the Uranium topic, he will resume the military campaign. Yesterday, a friend told me, "The market isn't trading based on reality; it is just betting the house on Trump" So far this week, there has been no meaningful pickup of traffic in the SoH despite Trump's rush to announce it was "fully reopened" Buyers around the world are still sitting on the sidelines; winter restocking is even over a month late, and peak driving season is starting. India is already rationing fuel, and the same is starting to happen in Russia, in case you missed the news. Refining spreads remain close to the peak too, as a sign of how strong demand is. This is the simple reality, and traders are sticking their heads deep in the sand to avoid seeing it betting on a Trump's "miracle", but the last time I checked miracles only exist in the Bible

If Trump doesn’t drink alcohol as he claims - he objectively looks awful naturally

If we have to make up for lost oil and restock SPRs would be a reasonable assumption that oil prices have to go up? Willing be wrong here but seems like it has to go ⬆️

@GuntherEagleman I envy your ability to see roses in a pile of $hit

🚨 NOT A PENNY OF TAXPAYER MONEY TO IRAN Vance shut it down: Not one single cent of American money goes to Iran, no matter what. Gulf states like UAE can only invest if Iran fully transforms: stops terrorism, stops nuclear work, behaves. No compliance? Zero benefits.  Their program and military are already wrecked from the strikes. Strait opens, we win either way. Qatari payoffs? Vance: “Not true. No money has changed hands.” This is leverage, not weakness. America First results. Obama gave away the store, Trump’s deal demands real change or nothing.

@stephtinmarie1 @ChristopherHale Ah forgot you like to be the victim instead of decent

@ChristopherHale I don’t want to hear the crying about Michelle Obama after all the sh$t they’ve done and said about President Trump! PERIOD!

Dave Portnoy calls on Trump to denounce the Michelle Obama slur that took place on the White House south lawn.

@abriNotMe77 @jaketapper It’s hard to know your hero’s are terrible but carry on, this won’t end well for you

@jaketapper You have people on your bogus network that say Trump is a pedophile and a child rapist with a straight face and no pushback from any of you news actors so, yeh...Michelle Obama is a man, I guess lol your rules

Asked for comment about UFC Fighter Josh Hokit saying “Michelle Obama is a man” in his post fight interview, WH spokesman Steven Cheung said “He had a great win last night. He showed toughness and the ability to pressure his opponent both on his feet and on the ground.”

@WSJ Breaking: I’m issuing a statement that I’m dating Sydney Sweeney. She hasn’t confirmed there is a relationship.

Breaking: President Trump says he will issue a statement imminently announcing the U.S. has agreed to a deal with Iran. Tehran hasn’t confirmed there is a deal. on.wsj.com/4va9cUR

@marctshort “Serious People” Replace with spineless

Serious people growing frustrated that same people who rightly criticized Obama JCPOA are cheerleading for JCPOA 2.0

@Glenn_Diesen Art of the Dope

The US and Iran was supposed to sign a Memorandum of Understanding today before the Israeli strike on Beirut. Trump is either dishonest (complicit) or weak (incapable of restraining Netanyahu). Either way, it will be very difficult to make a deal with the US.

@BrettErickson28 Does that even matter? If it’s his own thoughts that fill the void or his clown car of advisors we aren’t getting anywhere better. This destination is crap and all the mimosas in the world won’t change that.

It is increasingly clear that President Trump has benched FDD and UANI... and it's the best decision he could possibly make.

@FareedZakaria @ksadjadpour @ianbremmer “This time feels different” You must think every stripper is in love with you

President Trump has said the US is on the verge of a deal with Iran around 40 times since the war began. But this time feels different. I asked @ksadjadpour and @ianbremmer what to expect from a potentially imminent deal between the US and Iran to end the war: