Tom Lefevre

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Tom Lefevre

Tom Lefevre

@tomlefevre

Flan enthusiast. @kitsdeals

Katılım Mayıs 2011
928 Takip Edilen352 Takipçiler
Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
This is an interesting and revealing take which is such a common flavor of take from existing field experts evaluating a novel technology. What if instead of looking at the unified intersection of capabilities and considered that maybe that is what makes it interesting, we evaluated it as a set of isolated capabilities already in existence and concluded it isn’t novel? Oh and what if anything that hasn’t yet been statistically demonstrated is unlikely to ever be?
Nick Mark MD@nickmmark

I use ultrasound many times every single day in the ICU, but there’s a lot of unreasonable hype about this “whole body imaging” ultrasound. I’m very skeptical of the claims being made and I’ll explain why: First some fundamental limitations of US: Ultrasound doesn’t penetrate bone and doesn’t pass through air very well. This makes imaging the brain and lung parenchyma essentially impossible with US. Bowel gas also frequently makes it difficult to visualize abdominal structures like stomach, small bowel, colon. It can’t see into bone either which can limit its utility for musculoskeletal imaging. For this reason ultrasound isn’t really amenable to a “whole body scan.” It’s hard to see how this could replace other modalities (MRI, CT) if it can’t visualize so much of the body. Ultrasound exams are often dynamic. If you’ve had one you may have been asked to roll or move to visualize certain structures. This requires a skilled operator. Immersing the patient in a tank for a 1 minute scan is a cute shortcut. It’s technically easier but it probably won’t be able get optimal images, further limiting interpretation. Also are they exchanging the water in the bath each time? Much of the time spend on imaging is actually cleaning the scanner between patients. Unclear how you can quickly disinfect a liquid scanner. The theoretical resolution of ultrasound is very high, but that isn’t quite the same thing as being able to identify structures. There are lots of artifacts and limitations to ultrasound. For some organs (thyroid, kidney, liver) it’s great. For others it may be less so (pancreas, colon, stomach, etc). Hard to see this replacing existing methods, especially if the concern is cancer screening. Ultrasound isn’t really one modality. There are a lot of different techniques (B mode, M mode, 3d modes, different types of Doppler, etc). Unclear how many of these this gizmo can do. Adding these capabilities may make the scan more capable but will also add to the scan time if it has to switch modes. There’s no free lunch. There’s always a tradeoff between scan quality and time. AI is great at *certain* narrow medical image interpretation tasks. But there isn’t a massive training set of data for this “new” modality. I wouldn’t expect AI to be very good at reading these scans until they’ve accumulated millions. That means they are still paying human radiologists to interpret for the foreseeable future. Everything in medicine is based on evidence. Proving that lung cancer screening saves lives took a decade. Where are the studies for this? So far just hype. More concretely, without evidence insurance won’t pay. Finally, Who is this technique for? Yes it avoids ionizing radiation but so does MRI. Yes it’s quick, but so is a CT scan. The scan may be quick but the interpretation may be slow (It’s still dependent on human radiologists) and the machine may require time to clean. It can’t image lots of body parts so it’s hard to see how it replaces “whole body MRI scanners.” I’m sure there are tech/wellness bros who are excited but pay out of pocket for low quality wuick partial body scans but wider adoption depends on more than hype.

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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
Genuinely wouldn’t surprise me if their next applied venture was for mineral and oil field exploration
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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
World class at AI + applied field = new class of companies building the future. Anthropic’s future business is going to be a model development parent with 50 JV subsidiaries that apply their god tool to a specific problem.
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Joshua Achiam
Joshua Achiam@jachiam0·
To be extremely candid - the thing I'm most concerned about in the ongoing Fable dispute is that it could be the loud noise in the canyon that triggers an avalanche whose outcome is normalizing electronic citizenship verification as a step in using software.
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Derek Thompson
Derek Thompson@DKThomp·
If some dementia is basically “long shingles”… And if some multiple sclerosis is basically “long Epstein-Barr virus” …. We should probably expect that many complex diseases might emerge from the deleterious long term effects of everyday viruses … Which means one evidence based perspective on longevity—beyond eat real food, not too much, get exercise—would be “cure all the little viruses” … Which suggests that the US could maybe benefit from a HHS secretary who didn’t hate infectious disease research and vaccines.
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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
@zmanian Sincere Q: Why does the answer to “what’s more profitable, inference or PoW mining?” change based on whether power is aggregated or not? Or is your suggestion that non-professionals may may optimize for more than pure financial return, and that’s who will take over mining?
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zmanian
zmanian@zmanian·
I have some opinions about where mining is going... Anyone with large aggregated power is going to end up mining AI tokens and not crypto tokens. The future of mining is disaggregated power where the waste heat also serves a purpose like home heating/water heating. There is proof of work at scale is not remotely a completed task and needs to proceed in parallel with Crosslink in the sense that both need a lot of maturity work.
Sovright@sovright_

The Sovright Mining Pool testnet is now live! Built for individual miners, with shielded Orchard payouts, miner-controlled transaction selection, and no min hashrate, it’s fully CROPS-aligned. Explore it here: mining.sovright.com

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signüll
signüll@signulll·
my lord i am convinced on device ai will be good enough very very soon which will finally enable zero marginal cost ai products. that means network effects can actually take place. this will be a huge shift for consumer experiences.
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Ansem
Ansem@blknoiz06·
trading attention & low float high fdv coins for a decade has prepared me for this day there's 4% float outstanding, the narrative is AI & intergalactic space travel, & the KOL is Elon Musk
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zooko🛡🦓🦓🦓 ⓩ
Thanks, Anthropic, for helping protect Zcash users. At Shielded Labs’s request, they ran a security audit of Zcash with Mythos. It did not find any more serious bugs in the Zcash protocol. Shielded Labs and others are continuing security hardening work. Stay tuned for updates.
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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
I suspect frontier models will get more closed because the viable business model for *frontier* AI is requiring a JV to use their god tool to make a new drug
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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
Got glazed by Mythos and then checked the model and it was 4.7 kill me
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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
This is an important comment
zooko🛡🦓🦓🦓 ⓩ@zooko

@mstrakastrak You know…I agree in theory, but in practice I've been working hard to make sure the Zcash devs have access to better models earlier than the public does. 😂

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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
@sacha Thank you for surfacing this. Finding it compelling and diving in today. Extreme physical scarcity x Dinosaur generation entering wealth phase x collectibility x uncapped top of market is an unusual combo & that it’s metadao significantly derisks
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sacha
sacha@sacha·
jurassicfi has a good chance of being extremely successful if both founders are as locked in as they can be and stay laser-focused on dinosaurs the market is big enough and growing at a v fast rate (still v early days compared to art)
Ownership@ownershipfm

Why @JurassicFi avoids auctions and goes for private sales Sora, CEO of Jurrasic Finance, on the acquisition strategy: "I'll take an example of your favorite dinosaur, the Ceratosaurus. It was actually sold at @Sothebys for around thirty point something million dollars, and it wasn't a full grown adult. The initial evaluation was 15 million, and it was sold for 30 plus" "That's one of the reasons why we're not going to go to the auction, we're going to aim for private sales. In the auction, the price can skyrocket. Imagine we raise 7 million for a Stegosaurus that's evaluated at 6 million, and then Ken Griffin comes and somebody offers 40 million, you kind of get outbid" "For the whole dinosaur market, those sales are great because they boost the prices of all dinosaurs across the globe" - @Sora_i_guess

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Tom Lefevre
Tom Lefevre@tomlefevre·
Don’t be in DeFi when Mythos releases
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Wojak Satoshi
Wojak Satoshi@WojakSatoshi·
I don't think the zcash:native inflation bug was exploited. But what's more concerning is how quickly it was found with AI. The more complex the protocol, the bigger the attack surface.. and privacy tech is the most complex stuff in crypto. From an investment perspective, it probably still goes up this cycle. Privacy remains a prevailing narrative and it's clearly VC chosen. But let's be real about who's actually holding this thing and comparisons to Bitcoin. Saylor publicly owns 4% of BTC supply and paid $70B for it. ZEC likely has equivalent-sized holders, except theirs is a consortium of questionable actors. Winklevoss twins, whose Gemini is down 90% since IPO less than a year ago. Barry Silbert of Genesis infamy. Mert and the Solana crew. Naval, who has a long history of dumping on retail, including ZEC specifically. It's no longer something you can comfortably full port. Contract risk is real and more probable given the complexity. Size accordingly.
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