Todd Phillips

6.1K posts

Todd Phillips banner
Todd Phillips

Todd Phillips

@tphillips

Banking and administrative law. @RobinsonCollege. Fmr @amprog @fdic @acusgov.

Washington, DC Katılım Mart 2008
718 Takip Edilen3.2K Takipçiler
Todd Phillips retweetledi
Kate Judge
Kate Judge@ProfKateJudge·
Very misleading explanation of capital requirements. In lowering capital requirements, regulators are allowing to banks to take on additional debt. Capital is not money locked in a vault. It is the amount of equity a bank uses to fund its operations. wsj.com/finance/bankin…
English
3
7
23
1.8K
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
A contract on whether a sports announcer will say "what a catch" during a football game is not anything like a letter of marque. There is no social good that can come from trading this contract because it doesn't affect anyone.
Max Raskin@maxraskin

Prediction markets are more than gambling. They're modern letters of marque like those used by Congress to seize 🇬🇧 ships during the War of 1812 I spoke to the CFTC's @MichaelSelig and @robinhanson for this piece in @washingtonpost wapo.st/4lB9znD

English
2
0
2
738
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@DustinGouker Tell me about it. I can't count the number of reporters to whom I've had to explain "no, really, the CFTC can do something about all these problems, it just...isn't."
English
1
0
3
118
Dustin Gouker
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker·
The idea that some people are pushing that Polymarket is "offshore" is becoming increasingly irrelevant, I think is one of the lessons of today's news. The MLB deal is as much about establishing legitimacy as it is anything else.
English
7
3
42
4.9K
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
This is a wild thing for a financial regulator that has banned the listing of any contract "that involves, relates to, or references ... gaming" to do.
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig

Today the @CFTC and @MLB made history by signing the first-ever MOU between a sports league and federal agency. We’ve committed to work together to protect the integrity and resilience of prediction markets relating to professional baseball. Through this partnership, the @CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect our markets from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses. Thanks to @MLB and Commissioner Manfred for working with us to protect the integrity of these growing markets. Read the full MOU⬇️ cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…

English
1
1
9
1.6K
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
Most things people don't like about prediction markets are already unlawful. New legislation isn't going to fix that. As I told @nickdevor_, the problems are most significantly with the offshore markets that offer contracts to Americans without complying with US law.
Todd Phillips tweet mediaTodd Phillips tweet media
English
2
0
4
609
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@AlexanderGrieve To be clear, I've never said retail should be prohibited from legally trading derivatives. But if a reporter asks what retail should know about these products, I'm going to say they'll lose money.
English
0
0
1
16
Alexander Grieve
Alexander Grieve@AlexanderGrieve·
Sure but it’s your prerogative to invest in ETFs, whereas it’s mine to invest in a riskier portfolio if I so choose. Regulators can require disclosures that allow us to make those decisions for ourselves. But making a qualitative judgment on what is or is not suitable for people to invest in is not their job—nor should it be ours.
English
1
0
0
29
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
Despite all the interest in prediction markets, it's important to remember that retail traders are entering into contracts with someone more sophisticated than they are, just like when they gamble with a sportsbook. "And so just like gambling, you're going to lose."
Todd Phillips tweet media
English
5
1
11
5.2K
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@AlexanderGrieve The CFTC put out a study in 2024 showing that retail traders, on average, lose money in futures markets. And that's when retail was just generally buying S&P or NASDAQ futures, not parlays (ahem, "combos"). 2/2 cftc.gov/sites/default/…
Todd Phillips tweet media
English
0
0
0
54
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@AlexanderGrieve They're different. Equities aren't zero sum like derivatives (or bets) are. The pros get alpha, but retail will be left with an asset that will on average appreciate in value over time. That's why my portfolio is ~99% Vanguard equity ETFs (the market minus ~3 bps in fees). 1/
English
2
0
0
69
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
This bill makes unlawful something that is already illegal. The problem is the CFTC isn't enforcing the prohibition that already exists in Rule 180.1. Senator Murphy should be asking why the CFTC isn't enforcing the law.
Nick Devor@nickdevor_

NEW: Senator Chris Murphy is introducing new prediction market legislation today. Preliminary press release: U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and U.S. Representative Greg Casar (D-Texas-35) on Tuesday, March 17 at 10:30am will hold a press conference to introduce the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, bicameral legislation to ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. Responding to alarming reports that prediction market accounts – likely owned by government insiders – placed large bets in the hours leading up to both the Venezuela operation and the initial Iran strikes, Murphy and Casar’s BETS OFF Act would put a stop to these corrupt wagers, crack down on prediction markets that flout the law with offshore platforms, and reject the idea that we should commodify every part of our lives.

English
2
2
14
3.2K
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@AlexH_Johnson I'll add that I think states can also sue, but their regulators don't really have an economic incentive to do so...
English
1
0
1
259
Alex Johnson
Alex Johnson@AlexH_Johnson·
@tphillips I would bet that there are U.S. residents using Polymarket and the CFTC won't take any meaningful action to stop them. Not sure if these are actual things I can bet on. Worth checking. BRB.
English
2
0
0
388
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@MickBransfield @shermannatalie Kalshi needs to ask the CFTC to bring enforcement actions against offshore markets stat. They're getting such bad press that they can't do anything about.
English
0
0
0
23
Mick Bransfield
Mick Bransfield@MickBransfield·
@shermannatalie She starts the article about Kalshi and then immediately mentions multiple markets that are not on Kalshi.
English
1
0
0
108
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@PayomDousti Actually, no. I don't think you don't need physical delivery for something to be a hedge, you just need a payout that can offset economic or financial harm.
English
0
0
0
48
Payom Dousti 🦥
Payom Dousti 🦥@PayomDousti·
@tphillips @DustinGouker got it, thx. physical delivery can be a reasonable distinction, though it implies perpetuals are gambling (i’m guessing youd probably concur)
English
1
0
0
28
Payom Dousti 🦥
Payom Dousti 🦥@PayomDousti·
@tphillips @DustinGouker out of curiosity, and not drawing equivalence, would you say a diabetic buying calls on insulin is gambling or hedging? on a normative basis i agree this entire premise is dysfunctional
English
1
0
0
35
Todd Phillips
Todd Phillips@tphillips·
@PayomDousti @DustinGouker The drug's approval does not inherently harm the patient, meaning there's nothing to hedge. Yes, the patient may want to purchase the drug once it's approved, and betting on the drug's approval may be a way to afford it, but it's not a hedge.
English
1
0
0
46
Payom Dousti 🦥
Payom Dousti 🦥@PayomDousti·
think you can make a reasonable analogy to say producers hedge by buying puts and consumers hedge by buying calls. if you are cancer patient who may be reliant on trial drug outcomes - buying a call could make sense in the case where it passes trial given it will likey not immediately be subsidized or covered.
English
1
0
0
32

Keşfet

@DustinGouker @nickdevor_ @AlexanderGrieve @AlexH_Johnson @MickBransfield @shermannatalie @elonmusk @BarackObama