Cc

@Mr_Derivatives Old E… lol

I remember back in the day when Spirit Airlines had $19-$29 one way tickets. I was like no way they would survive doing this…

@ohiain Yea, good perspective but still kinda brutal 💀

$USAR entered Tuesday, got stopped Wednesday into the close, and then Thursday rips +10% in the first 30 mins. Kept it on a tight leash with FOMC + mega cap earnings, and sometimes that means you have to watch them go without you. Not mad at it! When my focus names are consistently running, it tells me my eyes are in the right place.

@AmeetRai @ShakePryzby1 Truth 😢

@ShakePryzby1 The best indicator out there is when we tell our wives about gains and start to flex that way 😂

Most people say Relative Strength is the most useful indicator. But boy do I have one for yall that we just haven’t quantified yet 🫠

Love you showing the ones that didn’t work as well as those that did. End of the day it’s a probability game and that gets massively lost with the recency and selective bias innate to any public facing medium. Don’t care who u are… absolutely no one knows which ticker is going to stick a breakout. I have seen mkt/sector leaders completely whiff and laggers completely rip. All we can do is put ourselves in the highest probability universe of follow through and the rest is up to fate. We are all governed by the law of large numbers whether we want to acknowledge that or not.

Tried $COIN today from the Trade plan on the break of the inside day high Unfortunately not much follow through and ended up taking a loss at low of day $CRML breakout and retest ended up working beautifully Just to clarify some rules for these trade plans: -Entry on break of key level -Use volume on break to confirm -Stop loss ALWAYS at low of day Not every trade is going to work, but the ones that do will run pretty nicely. The tighter the markets get the more of these ill post in the coming days!

@Peoplewish @TedHZhang Well said

As a swing trader, I shouldn’t take unrealized gains at face value. Going into a momentum-style swing trade, I should already be committed to trailing moving averages with ~50% of my remaining position. Assuming the 10DSMA is the standard trail, by the time price closes below it, price has usually already retraced 2–3 APTRs from local highs—anywhere from 15–30%, depending on the stock’s volatility in most instances. That said, whatever my current unrealized gain is, I should be mentally discounting it by ~30% at all times. After reconditioning myself to view unrealized gains as a 70/30 split between me and the market, I became less emotionally attached to the big number that isn’t really mine. If you think you can outsmart moving averages and don’t cut the market in on your profits, you’ll end up selling early and greatly underperforming over the long haul. If you do the deal and share that 30% with the market, it’ll reward you handsomely.

@SRxTrades No concerns about general market OE and getting cgt in pullback?

Trade plan 4/26: $HIMS break over 31.33, 35c May 15--to target: $33+ $CRML break over 11.68, 12.5c May 15--to target: $12+ $LITE break over 896.11, 1000c May 1--to target: $950 $COIN break over 202.54, 220c May 15--to target: $212 Leave a like❤️, if you want more of these.

@ShakePryzby1 Yea, its so hard in fast markets because if u don’t take off the 8 u regret it, and then if u do and get stopped … ur like well i should have just waited for the 20 - lol. Usual trader dilemma 🫠 can never win haah

@trader_cc_ 20 is best but willing to try at either. Originally bought DELL off 20ema on last touch. Sold bunch into rip. Was waiting on next 20ema test and never came before new highs. So have to be willing to try then and try them again lower

This market continues to be about focusing on the few strongest names, stalking them, and being willing to buy them in the hole. Just trimmed a piece of this $AAOI i bought when it finished puking into the daily 20ema yesterday. 5R in four market hours. Bought a full 1R position $136.34, stop $132.62 and just took a tiny Friday trim $154.89 to begin to pay for the risk. Looks amazing for next week now and I have unbelievable stock. There was a time I would pride myself on typing up 2000 names every night and think I'm "working harder than everybody else." Took me a while to realize that was a fool's errand and you should simply focus on the leading stocks. I was looking for chart setups every night and would be missing the best names that go on the best runs because I was focused on chart patterns instead of leadership. The massive adjustment I made was to keep a focus list of 30-40 stocks and be willing to buy them as physically close to support as possible. I am not the trader who does x% of my portfolio for each position. I have a day trader's pedigree and we were always taught the closer you buy off support, the more stock you can buy. If I am risking X dollars per trade, i can buy twice as much if I have a $3 stop versus a $6 stop. AAOI here ended up my 3rd largest position on this entry simply because I'm risking 0.5% of my account and buying as close to support as I can. K.I.S.S.

Hahah, couldn’t be at desk this morning and missed it 🤦‍♂️💀 thats how it goes sometimes. Congrats to everyone who cgt it! This was a hard one. Volume capitulation for the W.

Another massive candle today… we have to be getting close. On watch again tomorrow am…

$CAR wow that is a hell of an expansion candle, such a. Great reminder that mkts can stay irrational longer then u can stay solvent. 🤞gap up tomorrow…

@ohiain OR specifically, but can give you recommendations if you end up in ID, UT or WA. Some beautiful country and great water out here 🎣

@trader_cc_ PNW? I might take you up on that!

I don’t get much free time throughout my weeks, but I’ve learned there’s more to life than talking charts and staring at screens. If money weren’t an issue, I’d probably be somewhere on a river as a fly fishing tour guide in the Great Smoky Mountains!

Car is not a normal parabolic so do not beat urself up over it. @TheShortBear put out a really good post on some of the liquidity fundamentals driving the squeeze yesterday. The big tell and the reason i have stayed hands off after trading so many of these is the lack of gaps, which is odd and lead me to believe there was something else going on. I will still get involved (almost did today) but probably small and after a true change of character with close below vwap or something like that. Anyway, point is don’t beat urself up on this as this is 100% not trading like a normal parabolic for what it is worth. Just try best to not to throw more money at it if possible. There will be more ops. Good luck.

Apr 21 Daily Review: I Was Reckless Again I have been trading recklessly, specifically by attempting to short $CAR. I lack the requisite experience in parabolic shorting and failed to account for the volatility of liquid stocks hitting circuit breakers, which caused my stop to be bypassed and resulted in a >1R loss. The cumulative losses from $CRML, $CAR, and $GLW put me on tilt. Overall, not a good session to me.

@Mr_Derivatives 😂

The Dow Transport is a widely followed index that is a key leading indicator of the overall US economy. As of today, the biggest component in the Dow Transport is…. Avis Budget Rental Car co…. I’m done.

Interesting….

@Peoplewish 3 lol

Run it back.... Which to $1000 first?

@ConnorJBates_ NBD 🫠

$CAR Casual 25 ATR extended from 50-DMA

This is literally the most extreme momentum event in 40 years of recorded data. The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions. That is the fastest oversold-to-overbought transition in the Nasdaq 100's 40-year recorded history. The previous fastest was 25 sessions after Liberation Day last year. The historical average is 60+ sessions. Benzinga According to Bespoke Investment Group, this also marks the fastest move from a correction of this size to a new record high since 1928. Yahoo Finance The forward return data is actually quite bullish long-term. Across all 44 historical episodes where the Nasdaq gained 11% or more in 10 sessions, the 12-month forward return averaged +24%, with a median of +30%, and a win rate of 80%. At 6 months, the win rate is 74%. Benzinga But the near-term pullback is almost guaranteed. The average maximum drawdown following these signals was −18.39% — meaning while the 12-month destination is historically higher, the journey involves deep, punishing pullbacks that can severely impact over-leveraged portfolios. Ainvest The key number to watch: Based on the 6 most comparable historical analogues — COVID recovery (−8%), Liberation Day 2025 (−4%), Fed pivot 2018 (−6%), Asian crisis 1997 (−7%) — the most probable near-term pullback is 3-8% within the next 2-4 weeks. The April 22 ceasefire expiry is the most likely trigger. After that consolidation, the historical data overwhelmingly favors a resumption of the bull trend. The S&P 500 has experienced average intra-year declines of roughly 14% since 1990, even in years that finish strongly positive — and the average correction (10-20% decline) lasts just 17 days. U.S. Bank A pullback here isn't a disaster; it's the historical norm and historically the best re-entry point. Wes and I are extremely well positioned in the leaders.