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Bull (bear) Mccabe
5.8K posts
Bull (bear) Mccabe
@tradermccabe
looking for traps and trying to make good transactions in crypto and trad markets
my field Katılım Temmuz 2016
390 Takip Edilen523 Takipçiler
@tradermccabe bullish on inflation? lol
also, mind opening DMs? tryna get in touch with ya
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@TheShortBear @DualityResearch These valuations with oil at 60, what about oil at 100
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Hard to believe looking at the index but we have retraced further than the multiple contraction during the tariff tantrum.
We are actually all the way down near 2022 lows levels.
For those who believe we need to pull back significantly more, the combination of substantial re-rating, significant degrossing, and hedging creates a powerful state that could potentially allow us to climb back higher.
Keep in mind we could be in the formation of a bubble similar to 1997-98 when the market pulled back 20%+ a few times. The war is overshadowing the underlying technological boom.
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Omani oil practically back on par with WTI and Brent
War over?
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@mattr908 @JCOviedo6 That’s the tension but amidst fogs of war and endless headlines whipsaws I find it helpful to look at what the market is saying.
We really know nothing but I don’t think it’s useful to entirely dismiss what the market is saying amidst all that noise
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@cyberkn1ght99 @fejau_inc This feels like a realistic bear case for oil instead of a complete collapse
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@PrudentOD @qthomp what does china have to do with a conflict involving us/israel versus iran
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@qthomp Agree with your points, but the cost of higher oil/fertilizer/commodity prices on China is also leverage.
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The below point is very important to understand about any negotiations with Iran. Iran is happy for Trump to delay conflict, it strengthens their hand further by keeping the Strait closed for longer, ratcheting up the pressure on global economies and keeping oil prices elevated. Iran benefits tremendously from the current oil prices. This is what happens when you have the leverage.
If you exclude the nonsense coming from Trump and just look at the facts, nothing has changed. Israel and Iran are still trading blows, the Strait remains closed and the demands from both sides are very far apart. Trump is labeling the time he needs to refuel and restock military assets in the region as well as send additional troops as a 'delay to allow for ceasefire negotiations'.
Does the 3 month VIX look like de-escalation to you?
Quinn Thompson@qthomp
In a similar vein, there is an element of negative carry in the market right now. Trump's fake 5 day delay taco after a self-imposed deadline for an empty threat before his next weekend attack is not 'free'. Every day that passes and the Strait is still not open puts more stress on global economies, liquidity and asset prices. If his goal is to prolong a slow burning economic crisis, he is right on track. So it must be asked - if it looks, swims and quacks like a duck, is it a duck? The problem is you can't eliminate volatility, only transfer it. There will be a lot of money to be made by identifying where that vol is being transferred and when it will matter.
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@Tradermayne Tony hawks years was peak childhood, the games and everyone buying their first skateboard
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Growing up Tony Hawk hitting this was the pinnacle of extreme sports.
Now they are doing it in pools.
Crazy Clips@crazyclips_
honey the kids are hitting 900s in pools…
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@MMusclesd @MichaelPBento selling spy puts would be bullish, this is the opposite
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VIX puts being sold in size, you know what that means.
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@eagerbeaver1900 @EdConwaySky if you dont think the trump admin is insider trading at this stage i have a bridge to sell you, its been going on since he got back in
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@EdConwaySky What a disgraceful so called reporter you are shame on you and sky news for talking nonsense
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🎥WHO PLACED THE BET?
Someone just made a killing with an extraordinarily well-timed bet on financial markets, minutes before Donald Trump's announcement of war talks yesterday.
Was it luck, or inside information?
Either way... someone just got rich.
Four min primer👇
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@ezcontra kind of think we pump for a few days and then the main risk off move is next quarter
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Bull (bear) Mccabe retweetledi
@CavanXy 100% agree, monthly and quarterly look very toppy aswell
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When operating from a weekly timeframe, these "tacos" don't really move the needle
Sure, this war has a massive part to play in the outlook for risk, but had I not had a clue what's going on in the outside world and looked at these charts objectively, nothing about them is compelling (yet), even with Trump actively running plunge protection
Cav@CavanXy
Regarding US equities I think if you are a frustrated bear here, which I'm starting to sense there are, I think you simply have to be patient. I'm seeing a subtle shift in sentiment towards equities being impossible to short/go down, right when they look most vulnerable to me. A loss of the 4h trend led to a loss of the daily trend, which has now manifested (across all major indices) into a loss of the weekly trend. We have now also seen multiple attempts to reclaim the daily trend, which have been swiftly rejected. This is only week two of price accepting below the weekly trend, so from a higher time perspective, this move may still be in the early innings. Sellers are in control across all key timeframes, even with vanna/charm creating a supportive bid on bounces - which disappear come next week [opex is fri]. And as I've mentioned, I believe the credit market has been leading equities over the past month or so, and until we see 1) a meaningful shift in the trajectory of credit spreads, or 2) equities reclaiming trend across the aforementioned timeframes, I maintain a bearish bias and think we continue to trade lower from here.
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Bull (bear) Mccabe retweetledi
I have read literally every war headline that has come out today and can tell you I have no clue what is actually going on
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