Troy Teslike

@funwithnumberz I expected automotive gross margin to improve, because the average sale price data for the US showed higher prices for both the Model 3 and Model Y in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025.

@TroyTeslike Automotive margins rising despite much less production, higher input costs, more standard range variants and tons of price cuts?

Here are my estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.39 • Analyst Consensus: $0.33 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers in a few hours. The $0.33 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 20 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, released on Tesla’s website on April 17: ir.tesla.com/press-release/…

@MorganHammar There are different surveys for the analyst consensus. The main ones are Tesla’s own survey (also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus), Bloomberg’s survey, and FactSet’s survey. Tesla’s survey was published here. It shows the $0.33 consensus: ir.tesla.com/press-release/…

@TroyTeslike Someone said the consensus is .37. This is so weird.

Interestingly, the line “Digital assets (gain) loss, net of tax” does not reflect the Bitcoin impact. Instead, the impact is recorded under “Other (expense) income, net” and is included in GAAP net income. However, non-GAAP net income excludes the Bitcoin impact, so it needs to be removed. That’s what the “Digital assets (gain) loss, net of tax” line does. It removes the Bitcoin impact, so it’s equal to it but in the opposite direction.

@TroyTeslike How are they going to have a digital asset gain when BTC was down 20% from Jan 1 to March 31st?

@lin627661 I was estimating automotive gross margin to improve because the average sale price data for the US shows higher prices for both the Model 3 and Model Y in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025.

@TroyTeslike The fact that inventory built up, I don't think your gross margin can be improving though. EPS might be a bit higher as they might account the xAI stock conversion.

The actual numbers are in. Tesla beat the estimates. Non-GAAP EPS: • Actual: $0.41 • My Estimate: $0.39 • Analyst Consensus: $0.33 The last three columns show the actual results, my estimates, and the analyst consensus.

No, I didn’t change anything. We stopped getting weekly China car insurance numbers in mid-October 2025, which made estimating China more difficult. US estimates were already difficult due to limited data. I expected Tesla to make reasonable adjustments to production, such as reducing output when demand is weak, but that didn’t happen this time. As a result, I overestimated despite being cautious. The tables show my estimates, actual deliveries based on the data available so far (China numbers are still missing), and the difference between the two.

@TroyTeslike @TSLAFanMtl Your usual gap is smaller than Consensus, but this time was much bigger. Why do you think that was? Did you do anything different this time vs your prior analysis?

Hi everyone. Here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2026: • My estimate: 375,000 • Analyst consensus: 365,645 (based on Tesla’s survey of 23 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Mar 26) Last year, Q1 deliveries were 336,681 units, unusually low because of the Model Y Juniper transition. It’s a low bar to clear, though it’s still unclear whether full-year deliveries will exceed 2025.

@SawyerMerritt 20 minutes to go. I still like my 375,000 delivery estimate.

Tesla is expected to release their Q1 production and delivery results tomorrow morning (April 2nd) before 9:30 AM ET. Wall Street is expecting a delivery number of 365,645, with @TroyTeslike at 375,000. Tesla will also release their Q1 energy storage deployment numbers. I'll report the results the moment they come out.

@ChrisChichester Australia sales were • 46,161 in 2023 • 38,347 in 2024 • 28,856 in 2025

@TroyTeslike Nice work, Troy. What are sales like in Australia? Could they ever support a gigafactory on that continent I wonder.

Tesla’s Europe sales are trending stronger than usual. Q1 2026 deliveries in Europe (not global deliveries) are expected to surpass any quarter in 2025. The increase in demand may be linked to the ongoing oil crisis. For more details, subscribers can view the draft here: patreon.com/posts/154399594

@kris_predict I meant Q1 2026 deliveries in Europe (not global deliveries) are expected to surpass any quarter in 2025.

@TroyTeslike Any quarter of 2025 means? 497k+ lol

@DarisaRupesh Based on Tesla's survey, the analyst consensus is 365,645 units. It was posted today on Tesla's website: ir.tesla.com/press-release/…

@TroyTeslike What is expected?

Based on the latest data, Tesla deliveries this quarter are expected to come in between 360,000 and 390,000 units. I’ll tweet my final estimate on the last day of the quarter, as usual.

@Ghizmauve You are right. I deleted the earlier tweet and reposted it with the correct table.

@TroyTeslike There's no Q4 2025 actual numbers column

Hi everyone. Here’s my detailed calculation for Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings. Non-GAAP EPS: • My Estimate: $0.39 • Analyst Consensus: $0.44 The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual results tomorrow, January 28, after market close. The $0.44 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 19 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, which was released on Tesla’s website on January 22: ir.tesla.com/press-release/…

The actual numbers are in. Tesla beat the estimates. Non-GAAP EPS: • Actual: $0.50 • Analyst Consensus: $0.44 • My Estimate: $0.39 The last three columns show the actual results, my estimates, and the analyst consensus. Interestingly, higher than usual stock-based compensation had a positive impact on Non-GAAP EPS.

@GreenCandleCl @garyblack00 See x.com/TroyTeslike/st…. Actual deliveries came in at 1,636,129 units. I was too optimistic, but not as optimistic as Wall Street analysts.

@TroyTeslike @garyblack00 What were your total estimations for 2025 on Jan 2025 ? Total delivery forecast at the beginning of the year is very hard

After a 1.1% drop in 2024, Tesla deliveries fell 8.6% in 2025. I expect an even bigger drop in 2026. The big question is whether Tesla can achieve driverless FSD with vision only, scale it beyond a few supervised or remote-controlled cars, and start making money before automotive sales fall below 300K per quarter. Tesla hype is strong, but they haven’t actually achieved much yet, and reporting losses quarter after quarter would be a real hype killer after years of profitability.