Robert Rust

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Robert Rust

Robert Rust

@ucsrr

China Analyst, @UCSUSA Global Security Program. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.

Katılım Mayıs 2023
240 Takip Edilen102 Takipçiler
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
My blog on China's new arms control white paper. Short on arsenal details, long on sticking to the same strategy. Interesting bits include focus on developing countries' right to emerging tech for development + risk reduction with Chinese characteristics. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/ho…
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
@JimMillward That's not what they're evoking. 培训基地 is used to refer to plenty of training centers in all kinds of sectors across the country, the joke is a countrywide meme and not region-specific.
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James Millward 米華健
James Millward 米華健@JimMillward·
Critical comments suggest this establishment is a bar/restaurant. That’s even more interesting though dark that such a place would ironically evoke the camps and idea of a “base” as a restaurant name, while selling plof (Uyghur celebration food).
James Millward 米華健@JimMillward

库尔勒喝酒培训基地:”Korla【City】 drinking alcohol training base” in the video. “Training” was a term used for the internment camps peaking 2017-2020. 基地 ”base” also seems to me a really weird term in this weird context: same word as for “guerrilla base” etc.

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Chris McGuire
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire·
@natolambert That may or may not be true, but either way, it isn’t a reason to downplay the strategic significance of the efforts of Chinese labs to use this as a tactic to steal American IP.
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Chris McGuire
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire·
Sorry but that just isn’t true—distillation attacks are illicit activity, not an industry standard. They are against the terms of service of all frontier AI labs. There is a reason OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google all put out reports warning about it: none of them do it.
Nathan Lambert@natolambert

Distillation is largely an industry standard and not just something done by Chinese labs targeting OpenAI/Anthropic. Many American companies also distill Chinese (open) models.

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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
Seems to me the reason the US hyperscalers put out reports/focused in on *Chinese* distillation is because it helps their cause with the government + is easy to sell as a security risk that necessitates more govt support.
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire

Sorry but that just isn’t true—distillation attacks are illicit activity, not an industry standard. They are against the terms of service of all frontier AI labs. There is a reason OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google all put out reports warning about it: none of them do it.

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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
It seems like the Manus case has devolved mostly into an argument about rule of law, i.e. the US does the same stuff to block Chinese investment or acquisitions through CFIUS, but that's ok because it's not a unilateral decision by the executive.
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Bethany 貝書穎
Bethany 貝書穎@BethanyAllenEbr·
Rush is exactly right here, and the article he cites is on point. I also wrote an entire book about China's economic coercion dating all the way back to 1997. No, the US use of trade tools against China beginning in 2018 did not start the cycle of economic coercion. China did.
Rush Doshi@RushDoshi

It is a kind of orientalism to suggest a China is an exception to typical great power behavior. China indeed developed tools for economic coercion long ago. This article written in *2012* discusses several cases of economic coercion from rare earths to salmon to bananas.

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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
@ChrisRMcGuire "the Chinese government clearly believes that the US and Chinese AI ecosystems should be completely separate" that idea was actually all you, brother!
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Chris McGuire
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire·
After China's cancellation of Meta's purchase of Manus, why would any founder start an AI company in China if they had a choice? In China you have access to less compute, less capital, and salaries are lower than in the West. And if you are so successful that a non-Chinese firm tries to acquire you for billions of dollars, the Chinese government will lure you back to Beijing, ban you from leaving the country, and take your profits by canceling the acquisition. Manus did everything right. They even moved their entire business to Singapore to comply with U.S. outbound investment restrictions. Their only mistake was that they originally founded the company in China. It's not even clear what it means for China to force Meta to unwind the transaction. Is it going to force Manus's researchers to return to China and place exit bans on them too? Is it going to force Manus's founders and shareholders to pay back $2 billion to Meta? This is what happens when you regulate by fiat rather than rule of law. Ultimately, this is a much larger defeat for the Chinese AI ecosystem than for the United States. Meta will be fine without Manus. But Chinese nationals looking to found AI companies will increasingly just start them overseas. The message from the Chinese government here is that every AI company founded in China will forever remain subject to Chinese government regulatory pressure and manipulation, regardless of its legal status or location. Lastly, given the Chinese government clearly believes that the US and Chinese AI ecosystems should be completely separate, we should stop helping their ecosystem succeed! China's AI companies remain extremely reliant on US compute, AI models, and chipmaking tools. If we tighten the screws on China's access to US tech, the Chinese ecosystem will be even less attractive to founders, and more will just start companies overseas.
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James Millward 米華健
James Millward 米華健@JimMillward·
库尔勒喝酒培训基地:”Korla【City】 drinking alcohol training base” in the video. “Training” was a term used for the internment camps peaking 2017-2020. 基地 ”base” also seems to me a really weird term in this weird context: same word as for “guerrilla base” etc.
Mehmet Tohti@MehmetTohti

China's government has set up Alcohol Drinking Training Centre (ADTC) for Uyghurs, especially for those who are 70 or older, to push them intoxicate themselves in Korla city in East Turkistan with intensives and rewards. you cannot draw a picture of evil, however, you can finger point and name it.

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Robert Rust retweetledi
Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦
There're those who argue that U.S. actions over Greenland and Iran make PRC look comparatively docile over its actions in disputed Asian waters. This attempt at moral equivalency presents a fallacy. Coercion is still coercion. reuters.com/world/china/un…
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
@jordanschneider I would recommend reading the article you screenshotted, it supports Jostein's claim.
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
@tianyuf US has blocked plenty of acquisitions going the other way.
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Tianyu Fang
Tianyu Fang@tianyuf·
This is all well and good, but you nat sec guys from the Blob would’ve done the same thing—if not worse—if a hot California tech startup sells to a Chinese owner
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire

After China's cancellation of Meta's purchase of Manus, why would any founder start an AI company in China if they had a choice? In China you have access to less compute, less capital, and salaries are lower than in the West. And if you are so successful that a non-Chinese firm tries to acquire you for billions of dollars, the Chinese government will lure you back to Beijing, ban you from leaving the country, and take your profits by canceling the acquisition. Manus did everything right. They even moved their entire business to Singapore to comply with U.S. outbound investment restrictions. Their only mistake was that they originally founded the company in China. It's not even clear what it means for China to force Meta to unwind the transaction. Is it going to force Manus's researchers to return to China and place exit bans on them too? Is it going to force Manus's founders and shareholders to pay back $2 billion to Meta? This is what happens when you regulate by fiat rather than rule of law. Ultimately, this is a much larger defeat for the Chinese AI ecosystem than for the United States. Meta will be fine without Manus. But Chinese nationals looking to found AI companies will increasingly just start them overseas. The message from the Chinese government here is that every AI company founded in China will forever remain subject to Chinese government regulatory pressure and manipulation, regardless of its legal status or location. Lastly, given the Chinese government clearly believes that the US and Chinese AI ecosystems should be completely separate, we should stop helping their ecosystem succeed! China's AI companies remain extremely reliant on US compute, AI models, and chipmaking tools. If we tighten the screws on China's access to US tech, the Chinese ecosystem will be even less attractive to founders, and more will just start companies overseas.

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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
China's 2012 attitude toward economic coercion, as described in the article, is very different to today. 1) lower-value exports have been replaced by indigenous higher-value industries; 2) manufacturing that would go to Vietnam etc. went naturally/was pushed by Trump 1 trade war.
Robert Rust tweet media
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
Disingenuous, imo, to compare the US sanctions regime with Beijing's sanctions, which (at least pre-Trump) were generally short-lived and limited in scope. But if anyone had actually bothered to read the article, they'd see that that's more or less what it argues too.
Robert Rust tweet media
Rush Doshi@RushDoshi

It is a kind of orientalism to suggest a China is an exception to typical great power behavior. China indeed developed tools for economic coercion long ago. This article written in *2012* discusses several cases of economic coercion from rare earths to salmon to bananas.

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Gabriel Wildau
Gabriel Wildau@gabewildau·
@isaacstonefish "Agree or disagree, like it or not, support it or hate it, this is our reality. Businesses, Investors, regulators, elected officials, everyone needs to understand and discuss this."
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Isaac Stone Fish
Isaac Stone Fish@isaacstonefish·
You may not like to hear this, but there is a correlation between improving views of China globally and Beijing’s expulsion and harassment of foreign journalists. The Chinese Communist Party has successfully shaped the portrayal of China globally, by severely restricting journalists ability to analyze and report on the country. The result? Higher favoribility ratings of Xi Jinping and China than Trump and the United States, and growing favoribility rates of China in the United States. This is not to downplay the clear, Trumpian reasons the U.S. has lost global luster — rather, it’s to express consternation and concern of entities around the world for believing China to be a responsible global actor. fccchina.org/2026/04/20/fcc…
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Robert Rust retweetledi
Timothy Ash
Timothy Ash@tashecon·
I just think it’s remarkable that this request was leaked. Countries facing real challenges normally go for SWAP lines - it has to be bad if UAE is even close to this. UAE has enormous reserves of less liquid assets - just sell down some of these, quietly.
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen

UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY and other currencies." -WSJ, just now Via @ces921

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Robert Rust retweetledi
Clash Report
Clash Report@clashreport·
Reporter: Are you angry at China for them sending stuff to Iran? Trump: No, we do the same thing, don't we, with other countries?
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
@okaythenfuture Would like to know more about how the tutoring reforms are actually shaking out big picture, anecdotes from mainland parents make it seem like it's mostly business as usual, albeit surreptitiously.
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OK Then
OK Then@okaythenfuture·
The CPC has done many extraordinary things in the past 50 years. if it can somehow tame the bloodlust competition that is the Chinese education system and the parental arms race that fuels it, it will have achieved its hardest task ever. The Chinese government is heavily signaling it sees this as an obstacle towards resolving the birth rate crisis.
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Robert Rust
Robert Rust@ucsrr·
Eyes rolled back a full 180 degrees at this sentence in ChinaTalk's Dwarkesh/Jensen reaction
Robert Rust tweet media
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