Mike

It’s definitely not fine

UK Bans Pretend "Stepsister" Porn Months After Actual Muslim Incest Protections zerohedge.com/political/uk-b…

@ProfessorWerner At least the majority thinks it is

Some Hungarian don't think this election result is a good thing...

@ClarksonsFarm1 Qeues

What does Britain do better than any other Country?🇬🇧

I want to talk about the scale of what’s coming for the UK over the next three months. Because I don’t think many people have joined the dots yet. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for over five weeks. Before this war, 135 ships passed through it every day. Now it’s 5 to 7. Over 600 vessels are still stranded. Iran has mined the strait, is charging tolls, and controlling who passes. The CEO of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company said it this week: “The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. That is coercion.” Two thirds of Gulf crude has no alternative route. 14 million barrels a day behind a 21-mile chokepoint. Energy bills are forecast to jump 20% in July. From £1,641 to nearly £2,000. The second major energy shock in four years. Petrol up over 15%. Diesel up nearly 30%. Wholesale gas rose 75% in under four weeks. Food inflation could hit 8% by June and 9% by December. Academics advising DEFRA say it could reach 12%. UK food prices are already 38% higher than before Covid. We’re only 62% self-sufficient in food. We import 60% of our nitrogen fertiliser. Red diesel for farming has surged 60%. Average arable farm income has fallen to £17,000, the lowest in over 20 years. Yesterday, China announced it’s halting all sulphuric acid exports from May. Sulphuric acid is essential for phosphate fertilisers, copper mining, oil refining, and battery manufacturing. A third of the world’s sulphur was already blocked by the Hormuz closure. Now the world’s largest exporter has pulled the other lever at the same time. The fertiliser crisis just got significantly worse, heading straight into planting season. Before the war, markets expected rate cuts. Now they’ve priced in two rate rises. Over 1,500 mortgage products have been pulled. Two year fixes have jumped from 4.8% to 5.5%. Nearly £1,000 a year extra on a £200k mortgage. Gone in weeks. Flights are next. A quarter of UK jet fuel comes from Kuwait, behind the strait. In early April, major carriers said they had five to six weeks of reserves. That clock is running. Ryanair’s CEO has warned 5-10% of summer flights could be cancelled. Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, which handles 30% of the world’s helium, is estimated to take 3 to 5 years to repair. Helium is critical for semiconductors and MRI machines. That’s not a disruption. That’s structural damage. Chemical and steel manufacturers are imposing surcharges of up to 30%. Analysts are warning of permanent deindustrialisation. European gas storage was at just 30% after a harsh winter. If the strait stays restricted through summer, Europe can’t refill for next winter. In Ireland, fuel protests shut down Dublin for four days. The army was deployed. Over 100 fuel stations ran dry, with warnings of 500 by end of the week. Downing Street has held talks on the potential for mass protests here. The OECD has downgraded the UK more than any other G7 nation. Growth slashed from 1.2% to 0.7%. Inflation forecast nearly doubled to 4%, with some saying it could breach 5%. Starmer and Trump spoke this week about military options to reopen the strait. The UK is leading a 30+ nation coalition. But the ceasefire is already fracturing. Iran re-closed the strait over Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Reeves is boxed in by fiscal rules. Higher gilt yields are eating her headroom. And I haven’t heard a credible plan from anyone in Westminster. Energy. Food. Fertiliser. Aviation fuel. Mortgages. Industrial chemicals. Semiconductors. Shipping. Government borrowing. Political stability. All under stress. All compounding. This country imports 44% of its energy. Has almost no gas storage. Imports most of its food and fertiliser. Gets a quarter of its jet fuel from behind a mined strait. Every structural weakness built up over 20 years is being stress tested at once. The next three months aren’t going to be uncomfortable. They’re going to be defining

Why would Howard Lutnick and friends need a pardon?

another very inconvenient truth. Offshoring carbon generation

There is no way of knowing how often Parliament votes against what the public actually wants. Until now. houseofthepeople.com tracks every bill going through Parliament. You vote. We compare it to how your MP voted. The gap speaks for itself.

Yep. ALL TIME HIGH in US Consumer PRICES

@ProfessorWerner You say that because you don't live there. Ask the people of Hungary how well they are doing...

The Hungarian Prime Minister has taken a lot of pressure and abuse for his principled approach to securing reasonable Hungarian interests. I hope the Hungarian voters will reward this on Sunday. I think they will.

@JoshYoung @calvinfroedge What your religion says and what Israel is doing are very different things that's the whole point I guess. Point 4 DO NOT COMMIT MURDER

@calvinfroedge Jumping from making factually incorrect statements about my religion, which has specific laws and theology about how non-adherents are not just human but also have their own obligations, to criticizing fictitious actions by a country is also noteworthy.

The way news headlines hijack the narrative is fascinating, but let me tell you why they never mention vessel types, cargo, sanctions status, or total volume. Do you honestly believe passage through the SoH is still unrestricted? I truly cannot understand the chants from the crowd every time a single LPG tanker manages to squeeze through. "A ceasefire predicated on the full reopening of Hormuz"? Are you pretending not to know the truth, or do you simply refuse to see it in the first place? #oott #iran

The difference between humanity and barbarism is how we treat other people

@Kacper_PK_CH Check $RGSI

Ok, I found a cheap asset in these markets. $NG - nat gas. Really interested in storage plays.

GDP Q4 final: From original expectations of 4.4% to 0.5%. Mind you this all happened before current “excursion.” We have a growth problem.

@BlackScholesMan And hope Israel becomes a peaceful country 🤪

You just have to coordinate with Iran first and pay your "transit fee" in cryto and navigate the new Iranian defined navigation map and you are all set! Nothing too it!

@AidanSimardone What an idiot

I don’t give a fuck. Raise taxes on the rich

This just happened to me again and it was very upsetting. Many of you are making money daily without even considering my well-being. It's heinous asf that you wouldn't simply dm me and lmk what's going on.

@CRUDEOIL231 @calvinfroedge Completely understandable! Good luck!! Waiting to see some more of those crazy P&L posts 🤘🏻

@undercoverMike7 @calvinfroedge I cannot mention common stocks bc folks from my company also view this account...

I would like to thank everyone who has responded with ridicule instead of reasonable counterarguments. I see there’s no point in honestly posting my P/L after the ceasefire. However it’s quite a unique experience to be mocked by people managing $30k accounts when I’ve lost $2M after making $15M. I won’t stop you though; I guess that’s just how it goes. At the end of the day, even as we argue right now over 10mb/d of production remains offline and that’s all that matters. I’ve done all my oil trades through derivatives this year, but today was the first time I actually added oil equities. Physics will do its job anyway. Guys, I’m just a humble trader. There’s no need to waste your time and energy mocking me. Just go about your business.