Robert Cantwell III

We re-platformed our quarterly letters onto substack. Please report any issues 👍

We re-platformed our quarterly letters onto substack. Please report any issues 👍

Update on my average number of $GOOGL searches per day. LLM use now 70/30 Gemini/Claude. ChatGPT not helpful anymore.

@thenanyu @TechCrunch reminds me of $YELP. early claim on a vertical, but dependent on its competitors to operate.

@TechCrunch 👀 @upholdings

Harvey confirms $11B valuation: Sequoia triples down techcrunch.com/2026/03/25/har…

Will Stripe hire a banker to takeout $ADYEY / $ADYEN. Bags getting heavy.

You can coach better basketball players, but you can't coach better founders.

@thenanyu Agree strongly. A 10x increase in deployment without a commensurate increase in defaults. Chef's kiss.

@upholdings Reposting with different wording for clarity x.com/thenanyu/statu…

@thenanyu @401Casey The challenge of making money is more stimulating than the leisure of spending it.

@401Casey @upholdings thoughts

This WSJ article is a little surreal to see in print

"While noise, fear, and unanswered questions may persist across the private credit landscape, we are facing it in Sixth Street’s characteristic head-on attitude. We remain investors first." $TSLX

A year ago, @RomanPuglise and I teamed up. At this point, we've become each other's go-to advisor. His weekly drops have gotten so good. open.substack.com/pub/romanpugli…

I'm still waiting to hear a credible argument that $ORCL can be trusted. Thanks @SchwabNetwork and @MarleyKayden !

I limit myself to one recommendation each letter. I’ve been on a heater lately: $CSU, $ADYEY, $BTCUSD, $DDOG, $SHY, $GOOGL, $VRSN

@fulligin So you're saying I inspired you to get a haircut?

Ran into the Canadian goats at Grace Cathedral iykyk

Unless you have $5M+, AI is already good enough to be your financial advisor. Even then it’s probably good enough Try it. Share net worth, where/how you’ve allocated assets, what your goals are. Ask it to analyze and identify opportunities for improvement. Stress test different scenarios It gets basically everything right. Which tax advantaged accounts to use. Whether and which trusts to set up based on federal and state variables. Yup, estate planning advice too Really remarkable. And speaks to the fact that even if the models don’t improve, what we have today is going to totally transform white collar work

$GOOG. Nerves got to me. Owning $CSU instead, but not $ADBE.

@EconomPic Fun. 22-29: earn more than spend 30-35: spend more than earn 36-39: earn more than spend 40: big writedown 41+: roughly break-even so far

Earnings lifecycle is funny… My personal experience ex investments 22-25: spend more than make 25-27: earn more than spend 27-29: spend way more than make 29-33: earn way more than spend 33-39: spend more than make 39-45: earn way more than spend 45+: roughly break-even so far

@thespencerwalsh Good or bad?

Hmmm.... $ADBE

"So the first distinction I would draw is that [inorganic] growth by internally funded cash is more akin to organic growth than it is to growth by acquisition" David Barber (Halma, 1997)

Will the real CFOs please stand up?