Cusp (🌊, ⚡)

Meta building a prediction app is the headline. The real shift is prediction markets becoming a capital market. Then the hard part stops being trading UX. It becomes collateral, credit, settlement, and liquidation around event-settled assets. That's what Cusp is building on @solana.

@SuperteamIN @ordrtrade @UmbraPrivacy @koshmoney @TarunMangukiya @dalpattapaniya @ArcherExchange_ Only Wins 🏆

wins of the week are so back 🎉 > @ordrtrade is live on mainnet (gOrdr to everyone who celebrates) > @UmbraPrivacy absolutely firing on all cylinders > @koshmoney is here, congratulations to @TarunMangukiya, @dalpattapaniya and team! > @ArcherExchange_ is the newest entrant in @SuperteamBlack > say hello to tab[dot]markets (by @event_mesh) > @mmdhrumil on the @jito_sol podcast > @swishdotcash crossed $10k in volume > members shipping ft. @Rachit_twts, @priyansh_ptl18, @KunalSharm89327 and @Prakhar158 (the sweetest) and finally, @littleunusualHQ and @goatfishxyz at their usual A game.

@unabrijed @solana @superteam @SuperteamIN @capitalmarkets Because Cusp is built around those constraints, not pretending they don’t exist. We underwrite outcome risk, liquidity risk, and information asymmetry directly instead of treating these positions like normal collateral.

@usecusp @solana @superteam @SuperteamIN @capitalmarkets then why cusp?

Prediction market positions are not just another collateral type. They settle to binary outcomes They go illiquid when liquidity matters most Borrower often knows more than the lender. That's why generic lending never emerged here.

@tom_piskule @token_ventures @poppin_so @ridemarkets @predikt_gg @tradeonhunch @Dekantfi @Predictefy @cleopetrafun @RouletteRug @dumdotfun @benchdotmarkets @epochdotm

Keeping our prediction markets map fresh! 🗺️ Adding a brand new batch of projects emerging straight from the Solana Frontier Hackathon 👇 @poppin_so @ridemarkets @predikt_gg @tradeonhunch @Dekantfi @Predictefy @cleopetrafun @RouletteRug @dumdotfun @benchdotmarkets @epochdotm @SaySoFun @winnr_trade @usecusp @uselotusxyz @PredictumX @AstariaTrade @LevXtrade @overheatcrypto @trysuperpumped @TickXdotrade @yesno_market @YosokuSolana @duel_duck @hivy_alpha @CrispPredict @hedgeyourfun @sirenmarketsxyz @Rektofun @flewlive_ @hottake_app @easonyeye @MentionedMarket @MidnightNewsApp @MimicMarkets @polygamingxyz @predictedwtf @SwivOfficial @vezta_io @Axiom_vaults @catallaxyz @MAGMAonSolana @PolyPaldotFun @PredXSpace @survivedotfun @vanticxyz

Prediction Markets have officially evolved from a niche experiment into a massive sector, reaching over $25.7B in notional volume last month and over 3M unique users. 🤔📊 To capture the full scale of this expansion, We've built a comprehensive map of the entire ecosystem. From foundational Market Engines to the next generation of Trading Terminal and DeFi, this is the definitive guide to where the industry stands today. We're thrilled for @tom_piskule to have collaborated with @predictionindex on this to ensure the highest level of accuracy and depth. 🤝 The 2026 Prediction Markets Landscape is here. 🗺️👇

@niteshnath 👀

Really big week

@lmrankhan x.com/i/status/20653…

Personally, I think Kalshi’s products are net negative for on chain liquidity. Every product they launch pulls trading liquidity off chain rather than onchain. As a result, new users entering through Kalshi are more likely to remain within a closed, off chain environment instead of flowing into platforms like Hyperliquid or Polymarket or other chains. The second order effect is that less liquidity and user activity become composable with the rest of crypto. When state lives onchain, other apps can build on top of it, integrate it, and create new products. When state is offchain, those network effects are harder to capture. Over time, I suspect many successful onchain products could be replicated offchain via Kalshi or others. I’m sure there is enough liquidity onchain for the ecosystem to absorb some of this, but the question is where the marginal user and marginal dollar end up. If new demand is captured inside Kalshi first, then the capital, positions, and settlement state tied to that demand are less likely to become composable with the rest of crypto. Maybe that is fine. Kalshi could grow the overall pie and create more awareness for prediction markets and perps broadly. But the risk I’m watching is that crypto’s strongest consumer finance products get validated in the mainstream while the most valuable network effects accrue offchain

@0xfishylosopher yeah - new asset class is here x.com/usecusp/status…

@usecusp borrowing on PM positions definitely super exciting area

Hearing lots of recent discussions focusing on how prediction markets can become an insurance-like mech for SMBs (eg. NYC bar Kalshi hedge). A few rough thoughts on the pros/cons here: > Prediction markets offer fine-grained event hedging, easy/legible payout options, and less admin paperwork compared to trad insurance mechanisms. Prediction markets can also offer niche, parameterized markets that no traditional insurer would create for a single SMB. > Eg. a logistics company for example could hedge delivery risks by using on weather markets or Strait of Hormuz markets rather than going for costly custom-built insurance policies > For market makers, this "hedging" behavior by SMBs provides a really great source of nontoxic flow - the SMBs trade on exposure rather than on information, making these markets more attractive for MMs to provide liquidity and underwrite > One structural problem though, is that there could be a "basis risk" - the outcome of the market (esp. large liquid markets) might not be tied to the cost-centers of the business. For example, a PM has "will temps in New Jersey be under X" as a liquid market, but the real risk I as a business care about is will XYZ road to my NJ warehouse be frozen/filled with snow. This will probably result in some sort of tradeoff - either I accept a more liquid market that carries basis risk, or I attempt to bootstrap some bespoke market. > Another question is on the privacy side - by default, SMB's insurance policies are private. However, PM orderbooks are public - this could be how something like the NYC bar's hedge is surfaced and doxxed. This might be resolved through some pooling mech. > Finally, one interesting angle is regulatory. SMBs and other companies may be legally obligated to buy certain forms of insurance (eg. workers' insurance, auto insurance). So even if on a mechanism level PMs can fulfill some insurance functionality, SMBs are still legally required to retain insurance. Overall, using PMs to fulfill insurance criteria is a super super interesting evolutionary direction + research focus, but we're still super early and the idea still needs to be proven at scale. Excited to see more experiments by @lzminsky and others in this area!

@streamflow_fi solana

@usecusp Choose solana every waking second

Choose Solana.

@thenarrator asset class x.com/usecusp/status…

the prediction market primitive is more powerful than a memecoin because it resolves on truth the challenge is that truth alone has never been enough to drive mass consumer adoption the teams that study why billions flowed into objectively worse products and selectively apply those lessons without compromising the core will be the ones that break out

from conviction to capital, stay liquid🌊

@event_mesh @solana @colosseum @toly Lfggg

tab.markets is live. Every newsroom, Twitter post, filing, onchain move, and prediction market event - turned into one signal you can trade in a tap. Stocks, commodities, crypto, tokenized RWAs on @solana. One tab. Early access open. 100 spots.

@0x_scientist 👀

If you’re into prediction markets or it’s variants, send me DM or comment below

@thenarrator x.com/usecusp/status…

important piece from Rashan at Lucrum Verus Capital on why prediction markets will become one of the most important financial asset classes of the next quarter century the core thesis: prediction markets are not just consumer speculation. they are a new market layer for event risk Rashan brings a perspective almost nobody in this space has: US Senate policy experience, head of policy at dYdX, and deep work on federal crypto legislation grateful to have been part of the conversations that helped shape some of the thinking here

@Xiznft @sagapad_icm @solana_stream @colosseum 👀

Ship Talk @sagapad_icm x @solana_stream 🎙️ Episode 1 !? Friday the 12th at 4 PM UTC I loved this initiative, I hope they make a multi-episode series at the Solana Frontier Hackathon of @colosseum . There are many great projects and teams that definitely deserve more visibility First lineup: - @looftaxyz - @fdn_labs - @tendrdotbid Of these three, the one I'm most interested in is Loofta. I think it's a fantastic project with great potential. I even spoke for a few hours with its founder, Lisa. It totally deserves to be in the first lineup I'd like to see more from Fdn Labs and Tendr; I'm sure they're very good It would be wonderful to have more episodes and for this to be a long-term project Here's just an image with 77 other possible projects for this, all of them amazing! Original post below lol

@jemmmyjemm @MonkeFoundry @solana 👀

Spent a few hours with the team going through @MonkeFoundry applications. We're only 1/4 in. Already encouraged by what's coming through - teams reinventing TradFi, RWAs, consumer apps, security, legacy industries. Make no mistake - the builders are here, & they are on @solana

@Rashan 🫡

@usecusp 🫡