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Useless Flame
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Useless Flame
@useless_flame
$APU is a community of frens who value working for frens. The US dollar is a memecoin. #SPX6900 aeon alt: @BenevolentBlaze
Katılım Nisan 2025
1.2K Takip Edilen855 Takipçiler
Useless Flame retweetledi

@i_am_jackis harrypotterobamasonic10inu homies not gonna love that, hands off the ticky bickies

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@ApteekkiApu @DivineApustaja im literally blinded by the brilliance, thanks u bitch
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@MartyTalk They are building the social credit score to be used with programmable money
Elon is not our friend, Elon is compromised
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The infamous dual mandate.
What does this mean for the middle and lower class?
The system is broken and you know it.
#SPX6900
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
WSJ's Timiraos: The House Financial Services Committee is taking up a bill that would amend the Federal Reserve Act to eliminate the dual mandate and focus only on price stability.
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@IMFCrypto @JohnSiderides You guys are on the hook for millions in wrongful liquidations what in the tone deaf fuck is this?
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@zk_lmao @BasedchadSenpai gimme that sweet sweet autmo-quant clear takes
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> Cohen: I'm going to almost 2x $GME share price with this $EBAY merger that isn't guaranteed. It's accretive!!
> Cohen: I'm going to need permission to be able to dilute 5x. But dw I'm aligned!!
Is the merger bet worth it for you?
Compute the expected value:
qS + (1 − q)F − c
where
q = probability of success
c = your cost basis
F = failed merger price
S = successful merger price
S can be computed as P(NP +56B)/(NP+28B), where N is 448,650,736, and B just means billions; Or use whatever number your imagination thinks is realistic.
Example:
If the merger goes through:
If pre-merger GME price is:
13.65 : float = 2.5B, new price = 24.8, ownership = 18%
22.00 : float = 1.7B, new price = 38.3, ownership = 26%
32.00 : float = 1.3B, new price = 53.1, ownership = 34%
Both extremes are just as unlikely, but you'd expect it to be between the worst case price where the merger is still possible and the mid 20s.
Assuming success of the merger, if the average long term GameStop bull has a cost basis of 25, they are looking at no gain from the worst case starting price, to a 2x in the unlikely edge case that price somehow runs to 32 before the merger. Average case, a ~30-50% gain.
If you use the markets ~20% probability, even in the 32$ pre merger price case under the same constraints, right now the odds are ~neutral for you. So it's entirely a bet on if Cohen can succeed with the merger if you are buying with q this low.
Then you have to ask, would you just make more betting on the prediction market for the merger?
Right now, probably.
The payout for that is ~d(1-q)/q, where 0 < d < 1, accounts for slippage, fees, spread, etc and is probably around 0.85. Conservatively, the same bet right now would give you a ~3x if liquidity is sufficient for your size.
Cohen was serious when he said he wanted people with a 100 year time horizon. In the short term his big brain deal is worse than a binary gamble on its success.
Opportunity cost, innit.
lmao
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Though my NFT is a 1/1, I’m still retarded.

LFGOOO 🐸🌞@lfgooo
Though my NFT is not a 1/1, to me it is.
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