Alex

18.2K posts

Alex

Alex

@venturewriter

Navigating uncharted territory.

Seattle, WA Katılım Eylül 2010
759 Takip Edilen758 Takipçiler
Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
@jing1218 @DeItaone No way! They just like to have it closed for fun 🤩
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jing
jing@jing1218·
@DeItaone Is Iran using the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip in negotiations?
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
RUBIO: HORMUZ COULD BE OPENED TOMORROW IF IRAN ALLOWED IT
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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
He openly says that FBI and DOJ now belongs to the President and he can do whatever he is wants with them. Using them against his political enemies is completely ok now. The next Democratic president should not change this approach and revert back to the Biden’s detachment from law enforcement. He should swiftly lustrate these agancies by firing anybody who works for Trump, and direct them to vigorously prosecute the current administration.
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Alex@venturewriter·
@LeadingReport And she also learned that Russians have been watching how she connives to support Trump to sell out our country to Russia
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Leading Report
Leading Report@LeadingReport·
BREAKING: DNI Tulsi Gabbard has reportedly learned that U.S. intelligence intercepted plans by the Ukrainian government to funnel hundreds of millions in U.S. taxpayer dollars to support Biden’s 2024 campaign against Trump and the DNC, according to Just The News.
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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
This post shows your strong conviction that the markets will tank. What level should they fall to for Ajay to admit his advise was wrong ? And conversely, are you prepared to admit that you were wrong if they don’t get to that specific level and stage a quick reversal, like in April?
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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
@Kacper_PK_CH I love the allegory. I may start calling you “Captain Kacper” soon 😊
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Kacper Piotr Kaminski
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH·
Copper The long term target is much higher. $18,000 per ton or $9 per lb seems quite inevitable in the 2030s, absent a prolonged global recession. Still, we may retest the breakout first. I know many did not catch the last rally. The good news is we will likely get another chance soon. I have the destination in mind, but how we get there depends on the currents, seasons, wind, and storms. We just navigate through it.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski tweet mediaKacper Piotr Kaminski tweet media
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH

INDUSTRIAL METALS Markets are pricing in a global recession and demand destruction due to high energy prices right now. If it goes this way, we'll just have to wait until the cycle is complete. The one positive is that it's shock-driven, so we'll likely see the bottom much sooner than we'd normally have to wait for. SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK • SILVER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥 • COPPER – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥 • PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥 • ALUMINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 • LITHIUM CARBONATE – CHINA: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 • URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥 • TIN – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥 • ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: sideways 🟨 ➝ downtrend 🟥 MEDIUM-TERM TREND CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK • SILVER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 • COPPER – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 • PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 • URANIUM SPOT PRICE – GLOBAL: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 • ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: uptrend 🟩 ➝ sideways 🟨 COT CHANGES SINCE LAST WEEK • COPPER – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥 • PLATINUM – UNITED STATES: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥 • ZINC – LME, UNITED KINGDOM: neutral 🟨 ➝ negative 🟥 Medium-Term Trend: past 20 weeks | Short-Term Trend: past 20 days $SI / $SLV / $PSLV $PL / $PPLT $PA / $PALL $HG Highlight for the week, shown below. 👇

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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
@GeraldoRivera Loyalty - blind loyalty for sure. Competence? Strike that!
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Geraldo Rivera
Geraldo Rivera@GeraldoRivera·
Karoline Leavitt is a terrific White House press secretary, and spokesperson for the president, measured, controlled, informed, competent. Whether you’re right or left, Republican or Democrat you have to appreciate competence and loyalty.
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
I would be shocked if Barron Trump wasn’t fed at least some of these wild market moving signals…
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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
@Kacper_PK_CH Like a fairy tale! Back door to mine…
GIF
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Kacper Piotr Kaminski
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH·
Backdoor to my building. I don't think I'll ever move from Europe.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski tweet media
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Andrej Karpathy
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy·
Software horror: litellm PyPI supply chain attack. Simple `pip install litellm` was enough to exfiltrate SSH keys, AWS/GCP/Azure creds, Kubernetes configs, git credentials, env vars (all your API keys), shell history, crypto wallets, SSL private keys, CI/CD secrets, database passwords. LiteLLM itself has 97 million downloads per month which is already terrible, but much worse, the contagion spreads to any project that depends on litellm. For example, if you did `pip install dspy` (which depended on litellm>=1.64.0), you'd also be pwnd. Same for any other large project that depended on litellm. Afaict the poisoned version was up for only less than ~1 hour. The attack had a bug which led to its discovery - Callum McMahon was using an MCP plugin inside Cursor that pulled in litellm as a transitive dependency. When litellm 1.82.8 installed, their machine ran out of RAM and crashed. So if the attacker didn't vibe code this attack it could have been undetected for many days or weeks. Supply chain attacks like this are basically the scariest thing imaginable in modern software. Every time you install any depedency you could be pulling in a poisoned package anywhere deep inside its entire depedency tree. This is especially risky with large projects that might have lots and lots of dependencies. The credentials that do get stolen in each attack can then be used to take over more accounts and compromise more packages. Classical software engineering would have you believe that dependencies are good (we're building pyramids from bricks), but imo this has to be re-evaluated, and it's why I've been so growingly averse to them, preferring to use LLMs to "yoink" functionality when it's simple enough and possible.
Daniel Hnyk@hnykda

LiteLLM HAS BEEN COMPROMISED, DO NOT UPDATE. We just discovered that LiteLLM pypi release 1.82.8. It has been compromised, it contains litellm_init.pth with base64 encoded instructions to send all the credentials it can find to remote server + self-replicate. link below

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Aakash Gupta
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta·
Someone just poisoned the Python package that manages AI API keys for NASA, Netflix, Stripe, and NVIDIA.. 97 million downloads a month.. and a simple pip install was enough to steal everything on your machine. The attacker picked the one package whose entire job is holding every AI credential in the organization in one place. OpenAI keys, Anthropic keys, Google keys, Amazon keys… all routed through one proxy. All compromised at once. The poisoned version was published straight to PyPI.. no code on GitHub.. no release tag.. no review. Just a file that Python runs automatically on startup. You didn’t need to import it. You didn’t need to call it. The malware fired the second the package existed on your machine. The attacker vibe coded it… the malware was so sloppy it crashed computers.. used so much RAM a developer noticed their machine dying and investigated. They found LiteLLM had been pulled in through a Cursor MCP plugin they didn’t even know they had. That crash is the only reason thousands of companies aren’t fully exfiltrated right now. If the code had been cleaner nobody notices for weeks. Maybe months. The attack chain is the part that gets worse every sentence. TeamPCP compromised Trivy first. A security scanning tool. On March 19. LiteLLM used Trivy in its own CI pipeline… so the credentials stolen from the SECURITY product were used to hijack the AI product that holds all your other credentials. Then they hit GitHub Actions. Then Docker Hub. Then npm. Then Open VSX. Five package ecosystems in two weeks. Each breach giving them the credentials to unlock the next one. The payload was three stages.. harvest every SSH key, cloud token, Kubernetes secret, crypto wallet, and .env file on the machine.. deploy privileged containers across every node in the cluster.. install a persistent backdoor waiting for new instructions. TeamPCP posted on Telegram after: “Many of your favourite security tools and open-source projects will be targeted in the months to come.. stay tuned.” Every AI agent, copilot, and internal tool your company shipped this year runs on hundreds of packages exactly like this one… nobody chose to install LiteLLM on that developer’s machine. It came in as a dependency of a dependency of a plugin. One compromised maintainer account turned the entire trust chain into a credential harvesting operation across thousands of production environments in hours. The companies deploying AI the fastest right now have the least visibility into what’s underneath it.
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy

Software horror: litellm PyPI supply chain attack. Simple `pip install litellm` was enough to exfiltrate SSH keys, AWS/GCP/Azure creds, Kubernetes configs, git credentials, env vars (all your API keys), shell history, crypto wallets, SSL private keys, CI/CD secrets, database passwords. LiteLLM itself has 97 million downloads per month which is already terrible, but much worse, the contagion spreads to any project that depends on litellm. For example, if you did `pip install dspy` (which depended on litellm>=1.64.0), you'd also be pwnd. Same for any other large project that depended on litellm. Afaict the poisoned version was up for only less than ~1 hour. The attack had a bug which led to its discovery - Callum McMahon was using an MCP plugin inside Cursor that pulled in litellm as a transitive dependency. When litellm 1.82.8 installed, their machine ran out of RAM and crashed. So if the attacker didn't vibe code this attack it could have been undetected for many days or weeks. Supply chain attacks like this are basically the scariest thing imaginable in modern software. Every time you install any depedency you could be pulling in a poisoned package anywhere deep inside its entire depedency tree. This is especially risky with large projects that might have lots and lots of dependencies. The credentials that do get stolen in each attack can then be used to take over more accounts and compromise more packages. Classical software engineering would have you believe that dependencies are good (we're building pyramids from bricks), but imo this has to be re-evaluated, and it's why I've been so growingly averse to them, preferring to use LLMs to "yoink" functionality when it's simple enough and possible.

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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
@DannyDayan5 The big question is to the upside or to the downside?
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
If this channel doesn't break soon, I am moving to a Buddhist monastery to become a monk.
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Alex@venturewriter·
@Kacper_PK_CH There was a big drawdown in October 2025 when the price went all the way through the averages for a while. I am wondering why you did not exit at that time? Was it because the averages did not converge and the trend seemed to be still strong?
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Kacper Piotr Kaminski
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH·
@venturewriter Yeah, pretty much. Plus other technical signals, breakouts and such. If they agree with well researched case, then I go long with confidence.
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Kacper Piotr Kaminski
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH·
Uranium Update As communicated, I sold half of my position when the short-term trend (20 days) broke in early February, and the rest just after the Iran war, on the medium-term trend break (20 weeks). But that's history, and I'll be back when price action aligns with the strong fundamental case. Here, I wanted to show how I typically trade a portion of my long, usually about 1/3 of the maximum, that's on top of my core 2/3 position. On the first chart, I’ve marked what I consider good entry and exit points for these tactical opportunities.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski tweet mediaKacper Piotr Kaminski tweet media
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH

Uranium All right, I may get some pushback on this one, but I sold half of my physical SPUT here. Please note that I bought it in mid-2021, rode it up, and rode it back to trend. Although I don't think it'll happen, I don't want to repeat that exercise. It's profit taking, as simple as that. Now I'll use the proceeds to hunt for other opportunities in this space, I think we have a decade to go here. Alternatively, if we settle over $100/lb for good, I may add back a bit higher.

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Endless Capit🅰️l
Endless Capit🅰️l@endless_frank·
I’m really sick of this shit. I’m a total Trump supporter. Never voted against him. For 6 months now, markets get fucking destroyed on every attempt to rally 1%. I understand that Iran was and is a threat and we need to do what’s right for humanity by neutralizing that threat, but I’m sick of this insider shit. Some large cohort of insiders knew for 6 months what was coming and sold every single fucking rally since. This is not a market, it’s a 3rd world casino and I’m really fucking tired of it. My vote will not EVER be for a democrat. I don’t believe in open borders to criminals, I don’t believe in shoving the LGBTQ flag and transgender’ism in anyone’s faces and I don’t believe in crooked politicians that enrich themselves through fraud LLC’s and NGO’s, but I also don’t believe in is this bullshit that I’m witnessing in markets. Everything is a complete fucking fraud and maybe @TuckerCarlson has a point. The American way has lost itself. There are frauds literally everywhere on both sides of the isle and it’s destroying this country inside out.
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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
This would be a letter to Biden’s government, I suppose. Trump would not get one since he did not do anything for Ukraine at all
Mykhailo Rohoza@MykhailoRohoza

Dear NATO partners, Thank you for your interest in Ukrainian drone technologies. Unfortunately, the transfer of modern drones is currently not possible. Their use requires serious training, and our instructors mostly speak Ukrainian. Many terms, as practice has shown, cannot be translated — they have to be experienced. There are also well-founded concerns that the equipment could fall into enemy hands. Given your current combat experience, we are not confident you would hold out even for three days. Please do not take this as criticism — rather, as an observation from the front line. As a compromise, we can offer upgraded Mavics. However, this would require approval from “Madyar.” As you know, he has his own conditions — including, but not limited to, the exclusion of Hungary from the EU. Additionally, we are ready to consider supplying outdated drones, for which the enemy already has electronic warfare countermeasures. If you manage to use them effectively, we can revisit the discussion about newer models. As for long-range and strike systems — their transfer is not possible in order to avoid escalation. This is a principled position. In terms of defensive solutions, we can allocate up to 100 units per month. We should note right away — we ourselves are short on them, as industry has not yet been fully converted to a wartime footing. Respectfully, Ukraine (a country that has been “holding out for three days” for five years)

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Alex
Alex@venturewriter·
@wintonARK @ManuKumar I also have free supercharger. Kinda nice with the gas prices these days :)
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Brett Winton
Brett Winton@wintonARK·
It really is bizarre. Most of my friends don't have FSD (or a Tesla). And it is the single biggest lifestyle difference between us. They drive their cars. My car drives me. They don't get how much--even at its current capability-level--the product changes life-feel. FSD truly is a mass luxury product. That it is still so narrowly enjoyed is mind-bending.
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Utkarsh Sharma
Utkarsh Sharma@techxutkarsh·
BREAKING: MIT just mass released their Al library for free. (Links included) I went through these and honestly... this is better than most paid courses I've seen. Here's the full list of books: Foundations 1. Foundations of Machine Learning Core algorithms explained. Theory meets practice. 2. Understanding Deep Learning Neural networks demystified. Visual explanations included. 3. Machine Learning Systems Production-ready architecture. System design principles. Advanced Techniques 4. Algorithms for ML Computational thinking simplified. Decision-making frameworks. 5. Deep Learning The definitive textbook. Covers everything deeply. Reinforcement Learning 6. RL Basics (Sutton & Barto) The classic. Agent training fundamentals. 7. Distributional RL Beyond expected rewards. Advanced theory. 8. Multi-Agent Systems Agents working together. Coordination and competition. 9. Long Game Al Strategic agent design. Future-focused thinking. Ethics & Probability 10. Fairness in ML Bias detection. Responsible Al practices. 11. Probabilistic ML (Part 1 & 2) Links: lnkd.in/gkuXuexa Most people pay thousands for bootcamps that teach half of this. Bookmark it. Start anywhere. Just start. Repost for others Follow for more insights on Al Agents. MIT's books on Al Foundations 1. Foundations of Machine Learning - lnkd.in/gytjT5HC 2. Understanding Deep Learning - lnkd.in/dgcB68Qt 3. Machine Learning Systems - lnkd.in/dkiGZisg Advanced Techniques 4. Algorithms for ML - algorithmsbook.com 5. Deep Learning - lnkd.in/g2efT6DK Reinforcement Learning 6. RL Basics (Sutton & Barto) - lnkd.in/guxqxcZZ 7. Distributional RL - lnkd.in/d4eNP-pe 8. Multi-Agent Systems - marl-book.com 9. Long Game Al - lnkd.in/g-WtzvwX Ethics & Probability 10. Fairness in ML - fairmlbook.org 11. Probabilistic ML (Part 1) - lnkd.in/g-isbdjj 12. Probabilistic ML (Part 2) - lnkd.in/gJE9fy4w
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Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff·
Trump used Truth Social to dramatically escalate the war on Saturday, only to do a complete 180 just before the stock market opened on Monday. Is this Trump being a master negotiator, market manipulation, or just an indication that the President has no idea what he is doing?
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