Venugopal PSV

Investors get tools first and skill later. The IIMM - individual investor maturity model venupsv.substack.com/p/the-individu…

@jlippincott Timing is the X factor. AI may enable 'destruction creative' (other way around of creative destruction). Displacement is front-ended, gains are rear-ended. this gap needs navigation.

"Mass displacement" of workers in a growing economy is not a problem. After WWII, millions of men left military service and started looking for private sector work. The result was not impoverishment but an economic boom. This was entirely predictable. Labor is an asset. The influx of new workers into the post-WWII economy meant new lines of production could come into being and old ones could lower costs and expand operations. If AI produces huge efficiency gains then there will be a surge in consumer spending and capital investment because prices will FALL. This means SAVINGS will RISE. Those savings will serve as the foundation for new jobs and growth. When demand for workers is strong, there are powerful incentives for job training, relocation funding, etc. in order to meet the market demand for labor.

@SridharanAnand seems like an input like - bridge+rock+black+water combo - remix permutations to create any buzzword.

Buzzword Bingo in social studies department must be wild. Competitive authoritarianism Cooperative fascism Subaltern neoliberalism Systemic intersectionalism Neoclassical ableism

@balajis Aha - HITL now means - Human in the lead !

Every AI agent ultimately has a human principal.

@MichaelGielkens As Buffett quipped on Leverage - "If you're smart, you don't need it; and if you're dumb, you shouldn't be using it."

Scary, hard to sustain when this is the source of new capital.

@neetcode1 Agree. Have written on 2nd order effects both on 'help' and 'hinder' dimensions for both input (producers of AI) and output(users of AI) substack.com/home/post/p-18…

So he’s saying Microsoft will be dead? Idk why no one ever talks about the second order effects of anything

@venkat_fin9 Good way for govt to get this going - use the recovery to reduce direct tax outgo for the year. If such recoveries are 15k crores, make that ‘tax back’ like a cash back l, and give to tax payers.

₹10.77 crore in cash, ₹3 crore worth jewellery, bundles of currency hidden inside mattresses, wardrobes, the prayer room, and even a bathroom flush. This was allegedly recovered during raids at properties linked to a retired Commercial Tax Department officer. While honest taxpayers struggle and pay every rupee, some people in the system seem to have treated public service like a personal jackpot. And then they ask why public trust in institutions keeps collapsing. @FinMinIndia @nsitharaman see the level of corruption in tax deparments, yet you choose to stay calm like as if nothing happened. Wow.

@venkat_fin9 One way forward is seats elected by tax payers / NRIs ? De-limitation takes MP seats to 846-850 anyway. Make it 1,000. The 150ish seats should be elected by tax payers and NRIs (sending 130bn $ a year). Fully online and global voting.

Even if someone earns ₹1 crore, you have absolutely no bloody right to take 35.8% in taxes for the kind of governance being delivered in India. Citizens are paying premium taxes but getting substandard accountability in return. @FinMinIndia @PMOIndia @IncomeTaxIndia

@WeekendInvestng Rhymes with Japanese stock and real estate bubble of 80s ? May be this time it is different! Valuation is the economic equivalent of black hole.

Numbing stats.!!

@unusual_whales OEMAI !

China is sitting on a $3 trillion pile of hidden bad debt that threatens to turn an economic malaise into a permanent drag, per Bloomberg

@upadhyay_harsh1 sounds odd. needs something more catchy.

Digital gold and silver players form self regulatory body DPMACI ▪️The body will be chaired by public policy expert Nirupama Soundararajan. ▪️Current members include MMTC-PAMP, SafeGold, Augmont, PhonePe, BharatPe, Mobikwik, Gullak, Lenden Club and CRED.

@talk2anuradha The only way forward is seats elected by tax payers / NRIs ? De-limitation takes MP seats to 846-850 anyway. Make it 1,000. The 150ish seats should be elected by tax payers and NRIs (sending 130bn $ a year). Fully online and global voting.

My appeal to PM Modi- In order to save petrol & diesel, please make it mandatory for bureaucrats, MLAs & MPs to use public buses and metro instead of large convoys. It will also be a good opportunity for them to experience world-class infrastructure they are building for us.

@SarangSood The only way forward is seats elected by tax payers / NRIs ? De-limitation takes MP seats to 846-850 anyway. Make it 1,000. The 150ish seats should be elected by tax payers and NRIs (sending 130bn $ a year). Fully online and global voting.

They’re not ranting on X like us when our expiries are taken away or STT is hiked. They’re taking serious action when their livelihood is at stake. There’s a lesson in that.

@BoringBiz_ Looks like 2a is not making sense and hence investments made will degenerate into 4a space. This also means 3a impact (IT sell-off) will rebound ? This 4 dimensional model seeks to map the interplay.

Chamath on why the AI capex spend might end up in a bubble Even though the race is on to adopt this technology as fast as possible, key economic indicators such as productivity and GDP growth are not yet showing any meaningful changes because of AI For the spend on AI to continue, companies need to be able to point to margin expansion or revenue growth that was directly contributed through AI A shoe company must be able to say they sold more shoes because of AI adoption A food or restaurant business must be able to say that they generated higher profits because of AI adoption This is simply not the case today. Until that happens, the AI thesis remains fickle

@Fxhedgers Money possibly is a bit more downstream in this context? The implied change is couple of degrees earlier - at 1st order scarcity is overcome, which limits need for exchange, which then impacts need for money? May be 2 tier money? Given vs Earned?

Sorry Elon, I am going to still keep saving and investing. “Saving for retirement will be irrelevant,” Musk said. “The services will be there to support you. You'll have the home. You'll have the healthcare. You'll have the entertainment. The way this unfolds is fundamentally impossible to predict because of self-improvement of the AI and the accelerating timeline.” But it’s coming, he trumpets, at a “not-too-distant" point. ”Anyone can have whatever stuff they want — incredible medical care that's better than any medical care that exists today — and there will be no scarcity of goods or services.” Plus, “the best education will be available for everybody.” “As far back as we can trace human civilization, there has always been some form of ‘money’ for exchanging goods, from shells and beads, to gold and silver, to today's complex and increasingly digital monetary system,” said Conor Kelly, partner and senior financial adviser at Prime Capital Financial and self-described Musk fan. “It's hard to imagine money simply disappearing in our near-term future.”

@noncarbona39357 @CliffordAsness moochers amock ?

@CliffordAsness It's pretty amazing how realistic the villains in Atlas Shrugged and The Fountainhead turned out to be

In Atlas Shrugged they passed laws to stop businessmen from quitting. Just saying.

@IshanTanna1 @Sharad9Dubey NPA numbers not mentioned?

Kissht (OnEMI Technology Solutions) — IPO Deep Dive India’s digital lending space is crowded, but Kissht’s operating metrics are worth studying. Key highlights • AUM scaled from ₹1,268 Cr to ₹5,956 Cr in <3 years • PAT increased from ₹27.7 Cr (FY23) to ₹199 Cr in FY26 (9M) • ROE ~23.5% and ROA ~8.5% (annualized) • 11.17 million customers built on 63.7 million registered users • Focus segment: salaried & self-employed earning ₹25k–75k/month • Average ticket size ₹7,000–25,000 Operating model • Data-led underwriting using 39 ML models and 400+ variables • Nationwide presence across 17,000+ pin codes • Hybrid collections strategy supported by 8,291 field agents Kissht is building a scaled unsecured lending platform targeting India’s underbanked mass market — a segment with strong demand *but higher credit and regulatory sensitivity. The company has filed its RHP for a ₹850 Cr fresh issue along with an OFS by existing investors. I’ve covered business model, growth drivers, risks, unit economics, and IPO outlook in the detailed deep dive. bit.ly/4tkXvsX

@Iamsamirarora Numbers should never be allowed to disturb narratives 😀

In an article today in Bloomberg the journalists talk about how Shriram Finance deal is a test deal for India because of (among others) "India's guarded embrace of foreign capital" Who will tell these guys about presence of very high (even 100%) foreign owned successful businesses in broking, AMCs, Banking, NBFCs etc for decades already.

@iancassel I remember reading his book - commanding heights, many years ago.

A quick and easy 700 page read for my flight to Houston tomorrow

@BRK_Student I remember his signature on travelers checks !

Had the great fortune to meet former American Express CEO and BRK director, Ken Chenault!

@Ronitper This church-casino framing is for the first time ?

“We’ve never had more people in a gambling mood than now.” “Markets are like a church with a casino attached to it. People will always find the casino more attractive.” - Warren Buffett