Vic Lausas

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Oh dear... You genuinely think it'd stop at tolls? If the US pulls out, that is a signal that the coercion worked. That is also a signal to the GCC allies, that the patron is no more. Iran would de-facto use the coercive instrument on GCC to force them to kick the US troops out. And not only that, but if the GCC is no longer trading under American protection but under Iranian permission, then the old pattern of dollar trade and recycling is no longer politically secure. Iran could enforce Gulf energy trade in Yuan, gold or other exchange mechanisms from day one. That is the spiral. Less secure dollar trade. Less volume in global dollar trade overall. Less automatic recycling. Less reliable Treasury support at the margin. Higher debt servicing strain. Worse fiscal fragility. More pressure feeding back into the system. And this is not happening in a vacuum. Reuters has recently flagged Treasury-market unease, fiscal sensitivity, and a broader environment where financing conditions matter a great deal more than Washington would like to admit. So no, the problem is not merely that the United States might "look weak." The problem is that if this breaks badly enough, the U.S. could face a deteriorating monetary-security chain at exactly the moment its fiscal structure is least comfortable handling it. That is not a tactical setback. That is a self-feeding strategic-economic spiral. That is why Washington cannot just walk away anymore. Because walking away without breaking Iran’s leverage over Hormuz would not end the crisis. It would ratify its result.

WSJ GIFT LINK: Trump might end the war without trying to forcibly open Hormuz. It stinks, but this is likely the least bad choice in a situation of all bad options. Ending the U.S. war is a necessary condition, but possibly not a sufficient one, for Iran reopening the strait. I get that it feels irresponsible for the U.S. to simply leave after creating a mess. It’s maddening, but might be for the best. Hear me out. Trump created a global public bad by attacking Iran and prompting the regime to close the strait. It was a colossal mistake that has caused pain in the U.S. and beyond. But cutting U.S. losses in a failed war makes more sense than continued fighting for a lost cause. And if the U.S. keeps fighting, no doubt Iran will continue to threaten the strait. If the U.S. quits the war, that would increase the political pressure on Iran to reopen the strait now that hostilities are over. Iran may try to extract “tolls” and if the Tehran Tollbooth persists after the war, it will be a lasting reminder of U.S. policy failure. But the tolls themselves aren’t that high — $2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels is just a $1/barrel surcharge, amounting to a 1% tax. Not great, but better than what oil prices are doing now. It would also incentivize Iran to keep traffic moving securely through Hormuz by monetizing safe transit. Yes I know it rewards bad behavior and morally it stinks for an odious regime to profit, but that’s the reality that Trump’s blunderous war has bestowed on us all. There’s a reason most of us don’t worry about Egypt (today) closing Suez or Panama closing its canal — the profit motive is powerful. Overall if Trump ends the war (which he should) with the Tollbooth intact, we are all worse off than we were on February 27, but better off than where we are now, and better than where we could be if the war stretches on for months or years. I know it’s not a satisfying ending but it’s pragmatic and we don’t live in the best of all possible worlds. There is one problem, though: Israel. Trump will almost certainly need to restrain Israel from continuing its war for Iran to reopen the strait. It should be a no-brainer: Israel is the junior partner and Trump should have the leverage to make them stop, given how much military aid the U.S. gives to Israel. But it’s not clear Trump will use it. @defpriorities wsj.com/world/middle-e…

𝗨.𝗦. 𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗣𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝘀𝘆-𝗼𝗽𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁 Embassies are instructed to recruit local influencers, academics, and community leaders to spread messaging that appears locally driven rather than directed by Washington. The directive tells diplomats to work with the U.S. military’s psychological operations unit...

@NoContextBrits Love the accent!

Say something nice about the UK.

@krassenstein He's talking to his supporters, not to people who actually follow world news and have half a brain. As long as he has even marginal support, he's comfortable in his own bubble.

TRUMP: “The world respects us right now more than they have ever respected us before.” - France: closes airspace to our military - Italy: closes their airbase to our military - Spain: closes their bases to our military - Poland: refuses to provide missile batteries to us. Trump doesn’t understand what respect means.

@RemoTony007 @SkyNews @BellusUK Then you woke up and let the cat out...

@viclausas @SkyNews @BellusUK Yes we can. We're going to do it so that Europe doesn't get anything through the Straits. That's the deal with Iran nothing going to Europe gets through

BREAKING: Trump tells the U.K. to 'get some courage and go get your own oil' Sky's @BellusUK shares his analysis Live updates: trib.al/LoCcyC6

correct. though that should be happening already, tbh. enough is enough. you can't stab an ally in the back while spitting to its eye and expect the ally to remain a wilful subordinate. europe most definitely should make its own energy deals with the GCC / RU (despite being a politically hot potato) - and pay in Eur.

@viclausas @balajis The US loses its credibility and US bonds will be sold off heavily.

This could be the offramp the world needs. You can think of it as the best outcome for everyone, under the circumstances. (1) From MAGA’s perspective, if Trump declares victory here and moves on, the US won’t waste yet more blood and treasure in the Middle East. It won’t invade Iran. It also won’t take all the blame for the ongoing global supply chain crisis. It just pulls out and lets everyone work out the regional security equation for themselves. Trump can say he’s fulfilled both his campaign promises: stop Iran from getting a nuke, but also no endless Middle Eastern wars. (2) From Israel’s perspective, Iran has now been shown to be quite hostile to its neighbors, and its military has been substantially degraded. Stopping now is good. Otherwise there’s a danger of overreacting to Oct 7 as Americans overreacted to Sept 11. Israel can stand back and call it a win, because after a US pullout, Iran will have much less excuse for holding the Strait hostage. (3) From the Iranian diaspora’s perspective, it’s unfortunately clear that the current war isn’t going to result in liberalization. Further attacks would push Iran further into fundamentalism, making it even harder to eventually do a liberal reformation. (4) From the long-suffering Iranian people’s perspective, ending the war now would also save countless lives. Otherwise they’ll get hit by friendly fire and drafted by the regime to fight for fundamentalism. (5) Finally, from the world’s perspective, once the US declares victory and goes home, substantial diplomatic pressure will be applied to Iran to simply open the Strait of Hormuz and allow ships through. Iran’s leadership has shown, perhaps surprisingly, that they care about global public opinion…and they would be on the hook for the suffering of billions of people if the Strait remains blocked. TLDR: if Trump declares victory and leaves, Iran no longer has any excuse for blocking the Strait and holding the global economy hostage. Let the matter be worked out diplomatically with pressure from all the 100+ affected countries on Iran. America shouldn’t have to spend a single cent more, or send a single soldier more, to the Middle East.

@skscartoon false. the EU can buy its LNG from Russia as it did prior the US sanctions, but the entire US economy is dependant on GCC trading in dollars. Leave the Strait to Iranian hands and that's the end of it.

The Strait of Hormuz matters a lot more to Europe than it does to the US

@viking_pl @TrumpTruthOnX Now there's a thought. Russian LNG is a lot cheaper than the American one the Europe is currently buying anyway... Europe should stop buying from the US, or with the USD. You don't need Europe, so it's time to cash in those bonds, as well. Good luck.

@viclausas @TrumpTruthOnX Or Russian rubles 😉

All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT (TS: 31 Mar 07:11 ET)​​​‍​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​​​​​​‌‍​​​​‌‍​​​​​​‌‍

@FoxNews The UK Should also start trading in GBP or EUR instead of the USD...

BREAKING: Trump tells fuel-starved countries to buy from US, fight to free Strait of Hormuz: 'Go get your own oil!' foxnews.com/live-news/us-i…

@BRICSinfo Don't forget to trade in GBP or EUR while at it, too...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇬🇧 President Trump tells the United Kingdom to "build up some delayed courage" and take the Strait of Hormuz themselves. "The US won't be there to help you anymore."

@EricLDaugh "Allies" are pretty much done buying stuff with USD...

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just dropped a BRUTAL reality check on our "allies," telling them FIGHT FOR YOURSELF, America is done holding your hand "All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT." "You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" 🔥🔥🔥

@WhiteHouse Don't forget to trade with GBP or EUR instead of the USD...

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you…” - President Donald J. Trump

The U.S. cannot simply walk away despite not needing the Strait for its own energy, if doing so leaves Iran holding effective coercive leverage over Hormuz. Whether that is about outright closure, selective passage, toll extraction, or hypothetical non-dollar enforcement, the common denominator is the same: Iran would be shown to have broken the security order and lived to monetise it. For Washington, that is bigger than a shipping lane. It is a test of whether the U.S.-led Gulf system still exists in practice. Iran could enforce GCC to throw the U.S. out and enforce the trade in other than USD. Hence, all talks about the U.S. not needing the Strait is outright BS. Leaving Iran with effective control over Hormuz would be the beginning of the end of the U.S.-led Gulf order. #washington #trump #Iran #GCC #oilmarket #lng

Washington is still threatening, Tehran is still rejecting, shipping is still burning, troops are still arriving, and the economic fuse is getting shorter. That is not a peace process. That is a countdown.

This reads like the U.S. is trapped between the rock and the hard place. Fishing for diplomatic solution and off-ramp while Hormuz remains the red line. This is not a victory announcement, this is weak posturing and threath disguised as a plea. The U.S. simply cannot walk away while leaving the smoking gun on Iranian hands. linkedin.com/pulse/why-us-c…

“The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran.” - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸