george fuller

Imagine living in 1978 and seeing a new band called Dire Straits

@simongerman600 Bunk

Europe is running out of Europeans. Want higher birth rates? Simply make housing more affordable, childcare cheap, jobs stable, ensure that dads participate as equals in the household, and ensure that careers and kids are compatible. In short: births rise when family life feels doable, not risky. Source: #lightbox" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comm…

@Cephii1 Live an empty life

You are not allowed to have children. What are you going to do?

@justin_hart Equilibrium

I hate to tell you folks, but low gas prices signals the economy’s demise. This isn’t a chicken and egg thing… it’s just supply and demand. Demand is super low for just about everything. Which means people are buying less and companies are shipping less and producers are making less. Thus — as I predicted back in July — WTI hit $55 / gallon.

15 years Until we can get him out, it's truly up to us

Regarding: Do Kwon Sentencing I regret that I couldn't make it to the sentencing. I followed the tweetstorm by @innercitypress . I wasn't in the room but like many of you, I was with Do. Kind of glad I didn't go honestly, I would've cried uncontrollably, especially during his speech. But the whole situation doesn't sit right with me. I feel like this should've played out way differently. I need to say something upfront. I wanted Do to fail. I wanted him punished. I thought he was arrogant and reckless and I told him so to his face multiple times. I'm not here to defend Do Kwon the person. But the legal case is broken. I don't blame the judge. Engelmayer was sympathetic, extremely methodical, and demonstrated that he made every effort to apply the law given the circumstances and set a standard. The problem is that Do taking the guilty plea means admitting to the government's charges as is. There's no debating afterward. I found it incredibly ironic that a national speech and debate champion like Do didn't contest. My guess on what happened: Defense attorney Patton was attorney in chief for federal defenders. Thinks like a public defender. Convinced Do to take the plea. Probably thought he'd get 7-9 years, somewhere between the defense ask of 5 and prosecution ask of 12. Serving half would've been 3.5 or 4.5 years, plus credit for time in Montenegro, meant maybe 2 years before transfer to Korea to settle things there. Compared to going to trial, the expected value math probably looked good. Trial would've consumed more resources, dragged out longer, shifted the calculation. And you have to understand the state he was in. On the run in Europe. Not seeing his family. Isolated. Shitty conditions in Montenegro. The emotional uncertainty. He probably thinks he's guilty now. But even if he thinks he's guilty, I don't think the government can produce an argument that meets the legal standard for fraud, and a proper defense probably could have created reasonable doubt. The government's core theory on the Terra collapse: Do claimed the algorithm self-healed in May 2021. He didn't disclose that Jump Trading stepped in to buy UST and help restore the peg. Therefore he lied about the algorithm's strength. Therefore investors were deceived, and therefore fraud. QED. When I was at TFL, I only heard vague whispers about this Jump deal through the grapevine, and I had to piece together through rumors. And even when it was revealed to me in full during the investigation, that argument felt flawed. Fraud is when you claim your system has safety mechanisms it doesn't have, and people invest trusting that fake safety, and then they lose money when the danger you hid materializes. Like if Do had said "we have a $10 billion reserve fund backing UST" when there was nothing there. That would be fraud. You're claiming safety you don't have. But what the government is alleging is the inverse. Do said "no reserves, the algorithm alone handles it" when he actually did have Jump as a backstop. In my eyes, he was claiming less safety than he actually had. If he'd disclosed Jump, investors would have been more confident, not less. "Algorithm alone can handle stress" sounds a lot riskier than "the algorithm can handle stress, but we have market making partners with reserves to protect it." I think a case could've been made that Do made Terra sound more dangerous than it actually was at that moment. You don't defraud someone by hiding additional safety mechanisms. The direction is backwards. The prosecution claims Do's private admission that "we might've been fucked without Jump" as equivalent to "he knew the algorithm was broken." But those aren't the same thing. Might've been fucked is uncertainty about an unknowable counterfactual. Knew it would have failed is a claim of definite knowledge. The only way to actually know the algorithm wouldn't have self-healed is to not intervene and watch it die. But TFL was making every effort to treat the chain as a live financial system responsibly. It only has one chance, one life. You can't rewind and try the alternative. Do called it a tainted experiment afterward, because once he intervened out of caution, he couldn't tell whether the algorithm alone would've saved it. The algorithm was working during that period. Arbitrage was happening. UST was being burned for LUNA. Jump was also buying. Both things were true. And one could make the case that NDA with Jump wasn't concealing fraud but a game theoretic defense. Algorithmic stablecoins operate in adversarial conditions. Speculators actively try to break pegs for profit, same way Soros broke the Bank of England. If you're defending a peg, you face game theory considerations. If attackers know your exact defense capabilities, they can calculate whether an attack is profitable. Uncertainty about defense resources is itself a defense. Central banks don't announce their full intervention capacity. The Fed maintains strategic ambiguity. Not disclosing your backstop's size is standard practice when you're facing adversarial pressure. Would disclosing Jump have made Terra more or less secure? Attackers could have calculated exactly how much force was needed to overwhelm the defense. That's probably the mistake that happened with LFG. As the popular adage goes, never reveal your position. Prosecutors point out that LFG was not truly independent, that Do controlled it rather than the governing council. But does LFG independence affect death spiral risk? A truly independent council would have deployed the same reserves the same way. The mechanism that killed Terra was the redemption pressure exceeding absorption capacity. Decentralization of governance doesn't make a stablecoin more resistant to bank runs. This argument is about theater, not safety. The defense could've argued that it's not material to why people lost money. Do's statements were one signal in an incredibly noisy channel. Crypto Twitter, YouTube, Discord, news outlets, influencers, critics all talking about Terra constantly. Kevin Zhou was famous for criticizing exactly this death spiral vulnerability. The risk was described in the original white paper. The code was open source. The potential failure mode was publicly debated for years. These risks were a public discussion, not an authoritative pronouncement by Do, no matter how much he tried to be. He wasn't hiding information that wasn't available to anyone paying attention. He was one voice among thousands. The prosecution never established direct causation between Do's specific statements and investor decisions. In a public ecosystem with open source code, a white paper describing the death spiral risk, and years of public criticism, how do you prove that any individual investor relied on Do's tweets rather than on the thousands of other signals in the environment? The 20% Anchor yield was the draw. The degen looping strategies were the draw. Do's tweets were background noise in a cacophony of shilling. Fraud requires that the defendant's lie be the thing that induced the investment. In Terra's case, the risks and the rewards were both public knowledge, debated endlessly, and the prosecution never untangled Do's voice from the chorus. By May 2022, investors knew about backstops. LFG was created in January 2022 and announced publicly. Billions in Bitcoin reserves were visible on chain. The pure algorithm narrative was already dead by the time the crash happened. Investors who were in Terra in May 2022 knew there were defense mechanisms beyond the algorithm. They invested with that knowledge. It failed anyway. The May 2021 non-disclosure about Jump is causally disconnected from May 2022 losses because the information environment had completely changed by then. Terra was in essence a financial product and experimental technology. It might have oversold its founder's confidence, but it was a financial product, and like all financial products, they have operating ranges. I don't think Do ever claimed Terra would survive infinite redemption pressure. "We survived May 2021" doesn't mean "we survive all possible stress tests forever." The Titanic passed sea trials and was hailed as unsinkable. Bridges are rated for specific loads. A bridge rated for 10 tons isn't fraudulent when it collapses under 50 tons. The question is whether the rating was honest based on available knowledge. Engineering has boundaries. May 2022 was a categorically different event from May 2021. The macro environment had shifted. Fed raising rates. Risk-off sentiment across all markets. And then large coordinated sells hit UST, testing the mechanism beyond its capacity. Terra's collapse cascaded outward and contributed to Three Arrows and Celsius and the broader crypto winter. The question for fraud isn't whether Terra's failure hurt the ecosystem. It's whether Do's specific statements caused specific investors to take risks they otherwise wouldn't have. The causal chain from "algorithm self-healed in 2021" to "I lost money in May 2022" runs through too many intervening variables to establish direct causation. One thing I can't get over is the fact that Do signed off on pleading guilty to causing $40 billion in loss. Market cap decline is not fraud loss. If I buy LUNA at $1 and it goes to $100 and then back to zero, my loss is $1. The $99 was paper gains I never realized. The government is conflating actual invested principal with evaporated peak market cap. These are completely different numbers. By this logic Satoshi would be responsible for trillions in fraud every bear market when BTC drops. The actual money people put in and lost is a fraction of what the government claims. And treating market cap decline as fraud damages sets a terrible legal precedent for the industry. When the judge said that the letters from supporters, including my own, read like those supporting a cult, and "the Kool-Aid's still there", I felt hurt. But I can see a glimpse of truth in that. Do did act like a cult leader, and embraced his identity online. I said in my letter that he lost himself to a manufactured façade that was nothing like my boss. Engelmayer said that the power revealed who he was. I acknowledge that he's not totally wrong. The two sides of Do, the kind, nurturing mentor who cared genuinely for the people in his community and those he worked with, and the brazen, arrogant persona, they probably exist together. And as much I felt vindicated that Tyrant Emperor Kwon was shot down for his hubris, I do not believe he was at the center of a massive fraud. What happened with Terra was a frenzy. Hysterical mass delusion led by a charismatic founder, riding on the supercycle belief that drove 3AC, amplified by an ecosystem of degens chasing yield. Do was leading the charge but he was also a true believer. He set up LFG as reserves. He announced it publicly and investments poured in like crazy. People felt reassured, they supported the external backstop with a massive reserve denominated in the gold standard of decentralized currency. He was leading a charge and people followed his brazen certainty. When the crisis came he legitimately deployed them trying to save the peg. I personally know people who were in the war room in May 2022. Do wasn't saying "it's fine relax" and walking away. He was doing everything he could. He believed he could save it. That's not fraud. That's a founder fighting for his project and ultimately losing. Unlike FTX or Celsius, there were no lockups with Anchor. You could leave at any time. People were scared to exit, but Do wasn't forcing anyone to stay. SBF literally stole customer deposits and used them for other purposes. That's why SBF victims are being repaid. The money was taken and still exists somewhere. Terra victims can't be repaid because the value was destroyed in a crash, not stolen and moved to a different account. Treating these situations as equivalent is wrong. The Chai stuff has more merit as an actual fraud claim. The government says Chai didn't use the blockchain at all and Do faked transactions. That's not entirely accurate. Chai did use Terra for accounting, for saving on credit card processing fees, Terra wallet was integrated into the app, you could top up Chai with KRT. But Do probably stretched the truth early on about processing payments on chain when the actual payment settlement happened on traditional rails because of Korean regulatory constraints. The strongest case is institutional investors like Novogratz or Mark Cuban who I recall parroting the Chai adoption narrative. There might be measurable damages in the tens of millions there. But the Chai narrative is completely separate from peg maintenance and the May 2022 crash. Overstating Chai adoption didn't cause the death spiral. Mirror wasn't really decentralized. TFL had admin keys and used centralized bots to maintain price parity with real stocks. But I don't think anyone bought mTSLA because they believed in the purity of decentralized governance. They wanted exposure to Tesla without a brokerage account. The decentralization framing was more about keeping the SEC at bay than making claims about safety or reliability. Whether the prices were maintained by bots or by organic market makers doesn't change your risk profile as someone holding synthetic Google stock. The fraud theory here requires believing that investors cared about decentralization as a feature rather than as regulatory theater, and I don't think that's true. Anchor is harder to defend. Shilling it as sustainable stable yield when the reserves were obviously depleting, encouraging protocols to build things like Angel Protocol for "perpetual giving" on top of subsidized rates, that was reckless. Do knew the yield reserve was burning down. He knew the 20% couldn't last forever without a plan. That's probably the closest thing to actual misrepresentation that caused real harm, because people parked money in Anchor believing the yield was organic when it was a subsidy. But even here, the losses came from the depeg, not from Anchor's yield dropping. If UST had held, people would've just earned less interest. They wouldn't have lost their principal. But these specific things don't add up to $40 billion. They don't justify 15 years. Properly scoping them required an actual defense, which never happened because of the plea. If founder confidence plus project failure equals fraud, we've criminalized entrepreneurship. Every crypto founder who tweeted positively about their project is exposed. Every founder who said "we're building something that works" before their startup died could be charged. The only safe position becomes never expressing confidence in anything. And this case will be applied to future founders who don't deserve it. I don't blame Judge Engelmayer. He applied the law diligently given what was in front of him. But Do taking the guilty plea meant accepting the government's framing without any opportunity to challenge it. He cornered himself. I feel like my mentor slipped into a wrongful prison sentence. He might not see his daughter grow up. I think he could've argued this down substantially if he'd contested the government's theory with a proper defense. A man took a deal he didn't have full clarity on. Exhausted and stressed from his own poor decisions, years of running, isolation, uncertainty. He has to forever live with that. Something doesn't feel right about how this ended. I don't know how I feel. $LUNA $LUNC #LUNCcommunity

@Cephii1 Who will scorch the earth? Centrists or Nazis?

All centrists will be called nazi which will force them to scorch the earth.

@ThePolemikOne Therapists use a recurring revenue model

Therapy has replaced religion in the West... But more specifically, I would say that it has replaced confession and repentance found in historic Christianity. Instead of confessing to priest, who then gives you practical and spiritual guidance to make positive changes in your life... People are confessing to a therapist who, more often than not, is just affirming your delusions and never pushing you to take real accountability. Great convo from @ChrisWillx and @freyaindiaa

@SantaDecides 1911

What is the greatest handgun ever made

@CryptoWizardd Yes, you did. Then amended to +- 125k. I played that --- THANK YOU!!

Posted 11 11 2024 My personal thought on this cycle #BTC topped for this cycle. But #ALTS will catch up. While btc ranges I think we visit 105 /110 k one last time the coming months.

This is the GREATEST video of all time! 🤣

My Short Film Back Door made the top 10 Finalists 🏆 It will be judged by Artists such as Grimes, Logan Paul, Oliver Tree, Beeple, but also from the public! So please if you can go through the submissions here and join their Discord to cast your top 3! thedorbrothers.com/top-10

OYCI merges blockchain innovation with sustainable aquaculture, allowing investors to participate in a profitable, eco-friendly venture. OYCI accelerates the growth of oyster farming while creating new opportunities for community-driven investment in real-world assets.

Feel free to hit my bid. $KWEEN

Nice, you hit my bid. $KWEEN

@noiz_noiz23 @davidagoebelt @Lalalunalina Agreed, it is a free market .... do what is best for you. I prefer a free market vs a cult market with low liquidity.

@davidagoebelt @Lalalunalina Appreciate your time and thoughtful response David. Btw, I have no problem with any holder selling some $Kween to buy other opportunities. I’ve done it myself and will continue when given the right opportunity.

First signs of life with volume. We bottomed. Go go go. $aster $kween

It’s Monday. The world resets. But $KWEEN? She never paused. While others stretch and scroll, she builds, she breathes, she bends time to her will. New week. Same vision. Stronger magic. This is going to be magical. #UST #ETH $MOG #SPX6900 $CULT $SOL

Sundays aren’t for slowing down. They’re for tuning in. While the world rests, $KWEEN aligns. Energy clears. Vision sharpens. Chaos sleeps, power awakens. Feel the beat beneath the stillness. She doesn’t wait for Monday. She moves now. #SPX6900 #ETH $MOG youtu.be/yoRVG7eIofM?si…

Flames of want too soon, Craving fruit before it’s ripe Patience pays the wise. $KWEEN $MOG #SPX6900 #ETH $CULT