Charlie Clarke

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Charlie Clarke

Charlie Clarke

@wagonomics

Katılım Eylül 2010
1.2K Takip Edilen750 Takipçiler
Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@401Casey @bennpeifert Another possibility is that red states are poor because they enacted bad policies for decades and bad policies create lots of poor people.
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@bryan_caplan The last generation of bloggers gave us Bryan Caplan raising Bryan Caplan’s cloned baby. A new blogger had to rise up to restore balance to the force.
GIF
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Bryan Caplan
Bryan Caplan@bryan_caplan·
More importantly, parental effort is pretty scarce and even top-quality sperm is superabundant.
Nicholas Decker@captgouda24

@TwinkTheory No, and this is a frankly stupid question to ask. People have different comparative advantages!

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Louise Rowntree
Louise Rowntree@Louise_Rowntree·
@dollarsanddata That makes sense. But I’d imagine that’s still a small minority (Or maybe UK top private schools are more expensive then US ones @ 85k a year?). Are US ones taxed (like in the UK) or do you get a rebate (like in Oz)?
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Nick Maggiulli
Nick Maggiulli@dollarsanddata·
Private schools are the most expensive placebo in America. Nowhere else will you pay $250k+ for something that has so little impact on school achievement. My latest on why private school isn't worth the cost: ofdollarsanddata.com/why-private-sc…
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@dandolfa @DavidBeckworth I don’t want to revive all these arguments for 2023, and I’m not really equipped, but if I had to choose my champion…
Ivan Werning@IvanWerning

@DavidBeckworth No. This is a common misconception. In standard models a temporary high real marginal cost (from supply or demand) or markup raises the price level permanently. Bringing it down again would require a recession.

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David Beckworth
David Beckworth@DavidBeckworth·
This adds to a growing number of papers that point to excess aggregate demand pressures—created by macroeconomic policy choices—playing a key role in the inflation surge. (1/3)
Ricardo Reis@R2Rsquared

How much did public deficits contribute to the inflation surge of 2021-24? A popular argument notes that inflation rose in the US by almost as much as in other OECD countries. Yet, the US had a large fiscal stimulus in 2021 that most other countries did not. Therefore, the US fiscal stimulus did not contribute to the inflation surge. Is that right? No, it is not. To inspect this claim, you can use expectations data. By virtue of its mandate, the IMF is one of the best forecasters of fiscal variables and all economists pay attention to them. The IMF also forecasts inflation; during 2021-24, it was as right or as wrong as other institutions or surveys. Start from the IMF's forecasts in October of 2019 for the next 5 years of how much public debt would grow and what would be fiscal deficits, interest rates, inflation, and growth rates. Then look at the IMF April 2025 reports of those actual variables. Subtract one from the other and you have how much of the unexpected increase in public debt was due to unexpectedly high deficits, unexpectedly high interest rates, unexpectedly low growth rates and unexpectedly high inflation. The plot compares the unexpected high deficits with the unexpected high inflation terms for OECD countries, using the common units of their impact on the public debt. For countries that ran higher unexpected fiscal deficits, inflation was also unexpectedly higher. Some countries had their stimulus early, others only later. Somer larger, other smaller. Some had more, others less inflation. The accounts of the government let you consistently sum these differences over the 5 years to look beyond timings and to use consistent units. Thinking in terms of surprises and using expectations data allows you to compare countries with very different fiscal trajectories. More generally, in all models and theories of inflation, including fiscal account, expectations are crucial. Using expectations data to inspect them is very informative. Note: as with the initial claim, the plot is a correlation, not a causal statement. Sources: (i) Section 4 in Reis "Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021-24? Channels and Evidence from Expectations" (ii) This simple exercise is inspired on the analysis of Barro and Bianchi “Fiscal Influences on Inflation in OECD Countries, 2020-23.”

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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@yuanyi_z The thesis of his book “The War on Warriors” was that the U.S. should do more war crimes.
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Yuan Yi Zhu
Yuan Yi Zhu@yuanyi_z·
I don't think Hegseth here is proposing the US forces to do war crimes. I think he's too stupid to realise that giving no quarters is a war crime and not simply a really cool expression. Yes, I know he went to Princeton & Harvard.
Acyn@Acyn

Hegseth: No quarter, no mercy for our enemies. Yet some in the press just can't stop. More fake news from CNN reports that the Trump administration underestimated the Iran war's impact on the strait of hormuz. The sooner David Ellison takes over that network, the better.

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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@ATabarrok Hegseth, famously, has advocated that we should commit more war crimes, so this checks out.
Charlie Clarke tweet mediaCharlie Clarke tweet media
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
Sometimes students just don’t study and don’t do well. But I hate to see when my students are trying but not succeeding. Now I can see that. It’s a bit spooky and surveillancey though.
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
Moodle collect all sorts of "click" data that I never look at. I gave the click data for my test review to Claude. I really just wanted to see how many students did the review before class (33%), but I quickly realized it can do much more.
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@dansenor @elicalebon They’ll greet us as liberators and establish a liberal democracy. Playing all the Iraq war hits! Doesn’t even seem like the administration pretends to believe that this time tho.
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Dan Senor
Dan Senor@dansenor·
How did the oppressive Ayatollah regime convince the Western left that they’re the victims? @elicalebon joins Call Me Back to discuss. Listen here: lnk.to/4KnGXp
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Ben Golub
Ben Golub@ben_golub·
very few people understand this (of those who do, few understand the magnitude of it) but here's the reality: we are now living in what will later be viewed as the past </poaster voice>
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@alz_zyd_ Funny, I remember this exact lesson in high school. The limen is the transverse beam in a door frame. So liminal is the space (literally in the door) between one room in the next.
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alz
alz@alz_zyd_·
In the modern academic humanities, there are a bunch of words that sound cool but mean nothing, like "liminal". Like, if you say "Eataly lies in the liminal space between restaurant and grocery store", the word "liminal" literally means nothing, but sounds really cool
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Eric Nelson
Eric Nelson@literaryeric·
@Sally_Sharif1 @ABarnardNYC I’d be curious to know if all your colleagues are experiencing something similar. It’s not impossible that somehow you just blew it this semester. I’m not trying to say you did. It’s just that it’s as possible as freshman brain rot.
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Dr. Sally Sharif
Dr. Sally Sharif@Sally_Sharif1·
I just gave a closed-book, pen-and-paper midterm exam in my 300-level course at UBC with 100 students. All exams were graded by an experienced graduate-level TA according to a rubric. *** The average was 64/100.*** My class averages at UBC are usually 80-85. Context: • This was the first midterm, covering ONLY 4 weeks of material. • Students had a list of possible questions in advance: no surprise questions. • Questions included (a) 3 concept definitions, (b) 3 paragraph-long questions, and (c) a 1.5-page essay. • I have taught this class multiple times. Nothing in my teaching style changed this semester. • We read entire paragraphs of text in class, so students don't have to do something on their own that wasn't covered during the lecture. • Students take a 10-question multiple-choice quiz at the end of every class (30% of the final grade). • Attendance is 95-99% every class. Attention during lectures and participation in pair-work activities are very high → anticipating the end-of-class quiz. *** But unfortunately, I suspect many students are not reading the material on the syllabus. They are asking LLMs to summarize it instead.*** After the midterm, students reported: • They thought they knew concept definitions but couldn't produce them on paper. • They thought they understood the arguments but struggled to connect them or identify points of agreement and disagreement. My view: It might be “cool” or “innovative” to teach students to summarize readings with ChatGPT or write essays with Claude. But we may be doing them a disservice: reducing their ability to retain material, think creatively, and reason from what they know. If you only read what AI has summarized for you, you don’t truly "know" the material. Moving forward: We have a second midterm coming up. I don't know how to convey to students that the best way to do better on the exam is to rely on and improve their own reading skills.
David Perell Clips@PerellClips

Ezra Klein: "Having AI summarize a book or paper for me is a disaster. It has no idea what I really wanted to know and wouldn't have made the connections I would've made. I'm interested in the thing I will see that other people wouldn't have seen, and I think AI typically sees what everybody else would see. I'm not saying that AI can't be useful, but I'm pretty against shortcuts. And obviously, you have to limit the amount of work you're doing. You can't read literally everything. But in some ways, I think it's more dangerous to think you've read something that you haven't than to not read it at all. I think the time you spend with things is pretty important." @ezraklein

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Hattie Zhou
Hattie Zhou@oh_that_hat·
There's a fruit fly walking around right now that was never born. @eonsys just released a video where they took a real fly's connectome — the wiring diagram of its brain — and simulated it. Dropped it into a virtual body. It started walking. Grooming. Feeding. Doing what flies do. Nobody taught it to walk. No training data, no gradient descent toward fly-like behavior. This is the opposite of how AI works. They rebuilt the mind from the inside, neuron by neuron, and behavior just... emerged. It's the first time a biological organism has been recreated not by modeling what it does, but by modeling what it is. A human brain is 6 OOM more neurons. That's a scaling problem, something we've gotten very good at solving. So what happens when we have a working copy of the human mind?
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@aliciaandrz Imagine if you could get undergrads to put 40 hours a week into college.
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dr. alicia andrzejewski (she/her)
I’ll never forget the undergrad professor who told us to treat being a student as a 9-5 job, with breaks, lunch, etc. he said school had no business taking up our brain space outside working hours. I wish more academics, myself included, could follow this advice.
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@jasonfurman @econcallum @asdomash But revisions are very normal. In the Survey of Professional Forecasters (which happens mid quarter) their prediction for 1 quarter ahead GDP has an R-squared of about 30%. Interestingly, their nowcast is about 65%. The future is hard to predict, even when it’s the present.
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Jason Furman
Jason Furman@jasonfurman·
@econcallum @asdomash I wouldn't argue with @asdomash! And I agree I don't think AI was a lot. But the pace of productivity growth in 2025 was quite good whatever the cause. (And Q4/Q4 is the better way to think of what happened in 2025. Is also what BLS reports. And is what my own 1.8% was.)
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Callum Williams
Callum Williams@econcallum·
Still don't understand why yesterday's productivity numbers got people so excited about AI. You simply cannot infer anything from this data
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Charlie Clarke
Charlie Clarke@wagonomics·
@JohnSmi44431202 @sam_rosenfeld You are about to spend your next year in academic integrity hearings. You will lose them all. And depending on your status you may be reprimanded or fired.
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John Smith
John Smith@JohnSmi44431202·
@sam_rosenfeld Why do you not simply declare that using AI to write a paper is cheating, that you will be the sole arbiter of whether AI was used, and if you determine that AI was used, it's an automatic fail?
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Sam Rosenfeld
Sam Rosenfeld@sam_rosenfeld·
the modern professor's feeling of warm relief and gratitude at encountering artisanal, human-crafted bad writing while grading papers
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