Jeff Grift (Optimist Prime)

@choffstein gambling for entertainment is a legitimate form of recreation. perp dex were born as casinos.

my growing concern for perp dex valuations is that without onboarding natural producers and consumers, OI/volume is constrained by speculators who net lose money over time. well, until I went to vegas last week and was reminded that the speculator class is undefeated.

@ScottPh77711570 keep your meat

You’re flexing your watch I’m flexing my meat (see what I did there) We are not the same

@stevehou @ramahluwalia @GavinSBaker convergence trade then, sry i got hung up on the long term investor thing. sell a call spread on the ETF (SMH, SOXX) buy a call spread on NVDA dollar neutral i was tempted to put this on but i think it's a little too early. at some point i will.

I’m just saying that the scenario in which we have a “quality-junk correction” in which the smaller supplier stocks go down while the quality laggards like $NVDA doesn’t seem likely to happen. Rather, the scenario in which it does is likely to coincide with everything going down and perhaps the quality stuff going down by less. The “2x, 5x, 10x” corresponds to the returns that the smaller junkier stocks have been earnings while $NVDA has moved sideways or modestly up.

.@GavinSBaker says what I’ve been saying for months…. The cyclical industrials complex - the cooling, the generators, the turbines - are over-priced. And $NVDA’s pricing at 21x NTM is a gift for long-term investors. The cross-sectional mispricing in semis is echoed by the rally in junk stocks. What’s happening is Quality is trading cheap; retail momentum in *new themes* is off the charts. Meanwhile, ‘old guard high beta’ continues to lag. I believe part of what is going on is that quant trend following strategies are amplifying both moved. Ordinarily, institutional money might step in and buy ‘Quality’. That’s what they are trained to do. As long term rates comes down and energy costs eases, I’d expect a rapid bid in Quality. There’s a lot of cash still tracking the SoH as if it still has signfiicant relevance to asset prices.

@Alpha_Ex_LLC buy calls 1 month out from earnings sell calls just head of earnings big if tru

incredibly cyclical pattern of the spread between 1m and 3m implied vol on $GOOG. once the name reports, all of the implied vol comes out of the 1m option and it then gets priced into the 3m option (which now contains the next earnings date and the vol anticipated from it). so the spread between 1m and 3m implied vol reaches 6-7 vol points (1m 6-7 BELOW 3m). the opposite occurs as the name is about to report. the 1m implied vol gets bid up ahead of the earnings, typically 6-7 ABOVE the 3m implied vol.

@stevehou @ramahluwalia @GavinSBaker what is this 2x 5x 10x?? i haven't paid attention to the discourse besides watch the podcast with gavin on the couch. as a 'long term investor' the equity risk premium for ES is about 7-8%? if NVDA goes up 15% you've beaten the mkt. we're not talking shitcoins here.

I think the that $NVDA has been flat is to me a major reason why the smaller stocks at the various so called "bottlenecks" have been able/allowed to fly, often multi-bag. $NVDA and what you refer to as "quality" keeps a lid on the market index hence lengthens the lifespan of the rally. I don't think the fact $NVDA is priced relatively "cheaply" is really too germane here. They are all being priced and traded off of the same set of optimistic assumptions Jensen and other leaders of the AI industry giants projected. The marginal dollar is going to then chase the names that have the highest leverage to the themes, names that have not yet "participated" but have exposures that could become meaningful should the projections materialize. And if macro fundamentals improved, lower rates and cheaper energy, I still wouldn't expect this pattern to change materially. We might just see a migration of "bottlenecks" bid while the quality laggards march gradually upwards. I think eventually, perhaps at the end of the summer, we might see a massive surge of the quality laggards, but that likes coincides with a blow-off top, during which the smaller junk names will have exploded up much more. Fundamentally, just mathematically, it's hard to envision $NVDA go up 2x much less 5x or 10x without some dramatic re-rating of macro assumptions about AI, in case we'd still expect more explosive reaction in the small names. And the scenario, in which we do eventually see a relative outperformance of $NVDA and quality laggards to the smaller "overvalued names", it'd likely come in the form of a market wide sharp sell-off, which unless timed perfectly, it'd be very difficult to benefit from, certainly for a long-term investor.

@andruyeung reminds me of leaving caladan

There’s an underwater Michelin-starred restaurant in Norway built 18 feet beneath the sea. It’s the world’s largest underwater restaurant. Guests eat a 22-course menu for ~$400 while making eye contact with jellyfish. The building is designed to survive storms and doubles as an artificial reef for marine life. We need more weird shit like this in America.

@AgustinLebron3 bookmarked for, oh jeez i dunno, a future party trick maybe? the chicks dig esotericism and are so gonna blow their mind and (capacitive) load when i bring out the cmos analogy.

With very parsimonious assumptions, you can show that the optimal valuation increase round to round, for a VC-funded company, is a factor of e.

@stevehou gavin getting everyone bulled up and creating a massive exit singularity for holders to dump onto retail when the time comes. i support this. fukrs never learn

Increasingly think “compute in space” really may be a this cycle thing. If we are racing towards AGI within the next couple years, what’s the point of waiting another cycle?

@bennpeifert so levered beta?

We also increased the overall long-term risk target for the strategy from 10-12% to 15-18%. The anchor investor for the new commingled fund had been asking us for a long time to design a separate share-class with increased risk (for capital efficiency purposes) for the old fund.

Good morning my loves, happy Saturday. Sorry I've been quiet, obviously been busy, but thought it'd be nice to give you all the details on the multi-strategy absolute return program that experienced the 28% drawdown this year. (1/n)

@BlacklionCTA we weren't shitting on benn cuz his fund wound down. we shit on him cuz he has a good life, was banging hot chicks while playing video games while our lives are shit.

For all who where dancing on Benn's grave. This is a transparent , detailed breakdown. Some of these hit very close to home.

@volisdead waller scared every hoe on friday with his common sense. goldilocks is if we backpedal the year end 25 pt hike. untenable truce aside, i'm a bit concerned about positioning going into spcx ipo.

I’m such a pod monkey pm that I don’t know whether I make or lose money on Tuesday when I get back into the office if the war is over

@agnostoxxx @kust1983 the power to open and shut a door and be perpetually 2 weeks away from a bomb which, at this point, is sufficient but not entirely necessary for the door thing.

@kust1983 This is completely unstable equilibrium. It either gets resolved in a new war or with Iran emerging as a new super power

SO POLITE !!!!! 🤣🤣🤣 “US AND IRAN CLOSE TO EXTENDING CEASEFIRE BY 60 DAYS, SAY MEDIATORS”

@busgus @macrocephalopod so is ES i'm told. im not american

@weaponizedFOMO @macrocephalopod SPY bad for US taxpayers, no 60/40 split

Objective ranking, in order of most sophisticated to least sophisticated: - ES - E-minis - Spoos - SPX - S&P 500 - SPY

how long before: * the term 'clanker' is a slur on par with n!993r * alongside gender you have to declare sentience (biological or synthetic) * coordinated throttling between autonomous guilds to dispute thermal rights, batch size limits and inference credits

@stevehou nvda is finally trading like a gay value stock

“What ‘summer melt-up’? The index has barely moved.” “You should take a look at the AI momentum or ‘bottleneck stocks’. We are melting up.”

@taobanker only if you look at it

serious question is anyone gonna go to prison for this quantum shit

@macrocephalopod really enjoyed the history of matlab vid

RIP to the GOAT. mathworks.com/company/aboutu…

@686Prism australia kinda cheats on this metric with our flat vs tall empire try looking at it by deca-billionaires okay, now do trillionaires

it's more impressive when u adjust it for population

racks in space connected by lasers. when you say it like that, sure it sounds retarded. then again, you have a CFA and don't even know how to solder diodes in parallel. whereas i have watched the gavin baker interview.