Jeff Grift (Optimist Prime)

@0xkyle__ enjoy losing another billy on them oil longs

garrett may have lost a billion on btc longs but his oil tracking has been superbly accurate and a great napkin barometer estimation of the situation credit where credit is due, this table has really been quite great

Huge spike in equity futures! News?

@jukan05 for starters, it's china. it's also cheaper vs. HK so you see tourism flow from HK into SZ where people go to SZ for weekend or week long vacations.

Shenzhen offers hotel quality that’s far better than in the US at half the price, with no tipping. Why is it so cheap here?

@JLinvilleFert are these outright bans or export quotas and other restrictions designed to slow things down? farmprogress.com/marketing/chin… i recall in 2021 similar restrictions were put in place by the NDRC on domestic producers and mandating onerous inspections - not outright ban.

Lot of fear about "China just banning fertilizer exports" recently. For urea and dap/map, this was already the case. Before 2026 started, the gov't banned the export of those products until August. The recent ban just covers all other "smaller" fertilizers.

@stevehou she genuinely looks like a vampire.

Elon's mom is in China, again, having a grand time it seems.

cme commods sensitive to urea (reliant, hard to substitute). corn ~330 (~15%) wheat (SRW/HRW) ~200 (~12%) rough rice ~260 (~12%) figs are lbs/acre (% of total input cost) to get to nitrogen halve the urea oats, soy (bean, meal, oil), cattle (live, feeder), diary not sensitive.

@ScottPh77711570 @Tallow_beach

@Tallow_beach If you know…

Listen - don't do heroin. Obviously. But.... My goodness has the world never properly acknowledged how f**king great Herion-Era Mick Taylor was....

@DiveBomb321 to do that energy needs to go higher. food and fuel is a nuisance but still affordable.

The question isn't "will Trump TACO", it's "what will make Iran open the strait?" I don't see why they would until max pain is hitting the US.

axial overload yes, but we're just comparing broad direction. gold recovers (albeit following months of pain).

@StevenMandrapa mike hunt (snr) scalping a 10 pt rip in es on a sunday

me making fun of people for being on the app on a sunday me trying to figure out how to do that without also being on the app on a sunday

@anasalhajji @RichardHaass @JavierBlas yuan rails it is then.

@RichardHaass @JavierBlas Iran is not going to get a single cent from any country that takes Iranian oil (beside china) Check what Bessent said.

The oil the US is allowing iran to sell is too small to stabilize energy markets, but it is large enough to help iran fight the war & raise its price for ending it. truly misguided. open.substack.com/pub/richardhaa…

@W98AB these dumb chinese phones all have beauty filters on by default. everytime i got take a kyc selfie i need to spend 5 min tryna figure out how to turn it off.

hard to tell because they use so many filters it looks like AI and kind of makes them look similar but as the connosiuer that I am 99 times out of 100 she is chinese

@blknoiz06 lol u know exactly where we are

crypto twitter check in

youtube.com/watch?v=Fs3bXm… TRUMP: TALKING ON HOW PEACE TALKS WOULD LOOK TRUMP: REJECTING DEAL WITH IRAN TRUMP: MILITARY OBJECTIVES COMPLETED WEEKS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE maybe give the other guy time to open your email.

@StevenMandrapa @EconstratPB gm steve

@StevenMandrapa @EconstratPB maybe the thing that happened was a blessing helped you see things for what they are and reprioritize also, hope you booked your return flight - the way things are going you might be walking home.

wife bot a person-sized dry humpable pillow shaped like a cute seal (she's already given it a name "melons") so that thing's definitely gonna get more action than i ever will.

@VKMacro @JuneGoh_Sparta it would be poetic if the ofac reprieve doesn't create a new market for floating sanction barrels but rather reduces the execution risk for established rails.

@JuneGoh_Sparta I’m not sure on operations - I.e. how purchases will be made, which fx, and to who But if we assume there’s day 50 mm barrels available, isn’t the net impact that these are now available together rather than being drip fed to China? So the flow rises temporarily

Of course, I said this in jest. The truth is, all Iranian oil flows into China, and specifically, into the Chinese teapot (aka independent) refineries. If the oil was waiting on water before, it would have eventually flowed into the teapots at the right price. Furthermore, with Venezuela cargoes off limits since January, the teapots would have drawn down more on Iranian and Russian crude and fuel oil on floating storage. So seriously, if there are any extra Iranian oil left on water, who can buy it? And how would the payment be made to fulfil the promise that "Iran will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated by the move"? Maybe the teapots can optimize by selling it to China's state owned refineries if the margins to do so is better than outright running the crude themselves. But I think that's about the best it can go. Intra-China base case for me. Nett zero impact to the rest of the world. Pure conjecture on my end, but it really doesn't solve our big crude supply imbalance issue. Helpppppppppp...... #oott

@JuneGoh_Sparta thanks june. wrt why you think realistically it's going to china, are you saying china already has the established yuan payment rails, banks, intermediaries and commercial experience taking sanction barrels that other buyers don't have the seller's trust or readiness to take?