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Thinking about running it back… Judy Shelton vs Kevin Warsh again. Should I bet
polymarket.com/event/who-will…
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random user 589
283 posts
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@miniminnow @xwastheone don't ping him he knows better than i do
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A lot of people think the story is over because the Polymarket market resolved to Kevin Warsh..
But over the last 24 hours a lot of information has been circulating across multiple X accounts and sources
This thread is simply a summary of the elements people have collected and discussed
When you put everything together the situation looks more complex than it appears.
Here is the full picture:
1️⃣ First the Polymarket resolution itself:
The market “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair” worth about $617M was resolved to Kevin Warsh
This immediately wiped out all Judy Shelton positions
But several users quickly pointed out a major issue:
According to the market rules the PRIMARY resolution source was supposed to be senate.gov
The nomination had to be formally transmitted to the Senate
At the moment the market resolved many people were checking senate.gov and there was nothing posted
So the market appears to have been resolved using secondary media reports instead of the primary source defined in the rules
That is a very important detail
2️⃣ Another strange element is the oracle process:
Some users reported that there were zero UMA oracle votes recorded when the resolution happened
For a $617M market this is extremely unusual
The question many people are asking now is simple
Was the market resolved too quickly based on headlines instead of the official source
3️⃣ There is also precedent for corrections:
Some posts show that Polymarket has intervened before in rare cases when high visibility markets were resolved incorrectly
It is rare but not impossible
If rules were not applied correctly the platform technically can review or adjust outcomes
4️⃣ Then there is the nomination document itself:
One screenshot circulating shows a White House nomination listing “Kevin Warsh, of Florida.”
But people immediately noticed something strange
Warsh was born in New York
Raised in New York
Lives in Manhattan
So why is the document listing Florida.
This does not prove anything but it adds another layer of ambiguity
5️⃣ Meanwhile Judy Shelton has been extremely active:
She continues posting about
monetary policy
global finance
gold standard debates
geopolitical developments
She even shared the official White House nominations page?
Someone who is completely out of the race usually goes quiet.
Shelton is doing the opposite.
She is still engaged in the public conversation.
6️⃣ At the same time the contrast with Kevin Warsh is striking:
Almost total silence
No posts
No public comments
No media appearances
One tweet even joked that Warsh had been nominated while “suspended on X”
Obviously a joke but it highlights something real
His public absence is noticeable
7️⃣ Media attention on Shelton has not disappeared either:
Bloomberg recently ran a headline
“Judy Shelton Makes a Comeback Years After Missing Out on the Fed.”
So despite the market resolution she is still treated as a serious monetary voice
8️⃣ The policy debate she represents is also gaining traction:
Shelton recently shared an article about Missouri discussing a return to the gold standard
Across the financial world there is increasing discussion about
bank liquidity rules
post-2008 monetary policy
the role of the Fed in lending vs the real economy
These are exactly the themes Shelton has been pushing for years
9️⃣ And politically the process is not over until everything is finalized:
Nomination
Senate process
confirmation
History shows that surprises can happen during these stages
Nothing in politics is ever truly finished until the last step
🔟 The final point is about prediction markets themselves:
They are powerful tools but they are not perfect.
Sometimes they move faster than reality.
Sometimes they resolve based on consensus reporting rather than official confirmation
And sometimes the crowd gets ahead of the facts
So yes the market says Warsh
But the full situation still contains many unusual signals and unanswered questions
And in politics the biggest reversals often happen exactly when everyone believes the story is already finished...
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Bingo 🎯
random user 589@whereiswarsh
A lot of people think the story is over because the Polymarket market resolved to Kevin Warsh.. But over the last 24 hours a lot of information has been circulating across multiple X accounts and sources This thread is simply a summary of the elements people have collected and discussed When you put everything together the situation looks more complex than it appears. Here is the full picture: 1️⃣ First the Polymarket resolution itself: The market “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair” worth about $617M was resolved to Kevin Warsh This immediately wiped out all Judy Shelton positions But several users quickly pointed out a major issue: According to the market rules the PRIMARY resolution source was supposed to be senate.gov The nomination had to be formally transmitted to the Senate At the moment the market resolved many people were checking senate.gov and there was nothing posted So the market appears to have been resolved using secondary media reports instead of the primary source defined in the rules That is a very important detail 2️⃣ Another strange element is the oracle process: Some users reported that there were zero UMA oracle votes recorded when the resolution happened For a $617M market this is extremely unusual The question many people are asking now is simple Was the market resolved too quickly based on headlines instead of the official source 3️⃣ There is also precedent for corrections: Some posts show that Polymarket has intervened before in rare cases when high visibility markets were resolved incorrectly It is rare but not impossible If rules were not applied correctly the platform technically can review or adjust outcomes 4️⃣ Then there is the nomination document itself: One screenshot circulating shows a White House nomination listing “Kevin Warsh, of Florida.” But people immediately noticed something strange Warsh was born in New York Raised in New York Lives in Manhattan So why is the document listing Florida. This does not prove anything but it adds another layer of ambiguity 5️⃣ Meanwhile Judy Shelton has been extremely active: She continues posting about monetary policy global finance gold standard debates geopolitical developments She even shared the official White House nominations page? Someone who is completely out of the race usually goes quiet. Shelton is doing the opposite. She is still engaged in the public conversation. 6️⃣ At the same time the contrast with Kevin Warsh is striking: Almost total silence No posts No public comments No media appearances One tweet even joked that Warsh had been nominated while “suspended on X” Obviously a joke but it highlights something real His public absence is noticeable 7️⃣ Media attention on Shelton has not disappeared either: Bloomberg recently ran a headline “Judy Shelton Makes a Comeback Years After Missing Out on the Fed.” So despite the market resolution she is still treated as a serious monetary voice 8️⃣ The policy debate she represents is also gaining traction: Shelton recently shared an article about Missouri discussing a return to the gold standard Across the financial world there is increasing discussion about bank liquidity rules post-2008 monetary policy the role of the Fed in lending vs the real economy These are exactly the themes Shelton has been pushing for years 9️⃣ And politically the process is not over until everything is finalized: Nomination Senate process confirmation History shows that surprises can happen during these stages Nothing in politics is ever truly finished until the last step 🔟 The final point is about prediction markets themselves: They are powerful tools but they are not perfect. Sometimes they move faster than reality. Sometimes they resolve based on consensus reporting rather than official confirmation And sometimes the crowd gets ahead of the facts So yes the market says Warsh But the full situation still contains many unusual signals and unanswered questions And in politics the biggest reversals often happen exactly when everyone believes the story is already finished...
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@whereiswarsh Then we riding together
with indomitable faith ;)
I don't how we get from here to there, but I know we get there. It may be a long twisting road, difficult terrain, but we get there.
BRAVE NEW WORLD.
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Dear Judy Shelton team
YES holders
Be proud. You believed in a fair change of paradigm. This bet reflected a real hope to nominate a great woman with strong ideas to improve the system
Even if we lost, don’t regret believing in something noble instead of betting on wars or deaths
There will be other opportunities. This is only the beginning
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@GollumGekko1 You could have taken the win quietly and with some humility
Winning is part of the game, but so is respecting the other side
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@judyshel Knowing that money is involved, it’s worth adding a small note. Some people might interpret the message the opposite way, and that can be a bit embarrassing 😅
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I’m really disappointed. It hurts. My portfolio just got nuked. We played, we lost.
We didn’t make this out of thin air. We had arguments, we had signals, but it looks like we were wrong. Judy Shelton gone. What a journey.
It’s not the end though.
Already recovered 20% of the losses by panic longing USOil 😂
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@jt_xrp @WhoDeanie589 the market will resolve in 1 hour so
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random user 589 retweetledi
@StebbingAndy1 @realDonaldTrump @judyshel oh wait i’ll just call him on his private phone number personally
should be sorted in an hour or two
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@whereiswarsh @realDonaldTrump Dear President Trump. Sir, you may need to nominate and send to the Senate, immediately @judyshel for Federal Reserve Chair. She is a much better nominee on Fiscal Policy, and Economics than Mr. Warsh. She proves her knowledge and wisdom in multiple books.
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Dear Kevin Warsh hope you’re doing well
Please give us a sign of life soon I’m getting worried 😕
If you read this please blink twice or something before I have to call 911
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Kevin Warsh:
For those who think this is recent:
Photo is from May 8, 2017
Idea from November 2025
Meanwhile Judy Shelton is posting almost every day about markets, liquidity and the Fed
When you know
You know
Reuters Business@ReutersBiz
Breakingviews - Kevin Warsh has a point on AI and inflation reut.rs/404MzDw reut.rs/404MzDw
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Has anyone heard from Kevin Warsh recently?
ISABELNET@ISABELNET_SA
🇺🇸 Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would linger and growth would take a bigger hit 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @GoldmanSachs #oil $wti #crudeoil #inflation #cpi
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Bro still locked in February.
For Warsh to join them we’d first need to know where he actually is
Where is Kevin Warsh ?
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@jbm32753 @plawler610 @Carril1J @DebbieDem3 @marynlm @NycLadi @Uta_gunter @AnaPorras5 @AngelaRises @Charlen67947182 @papijones4 @Cook16228Cookie @DryDry62054 @PaulDereume @dreamcatchermja @4thDimension111 And Howard Lutnick is still in his cabinet while Kevin Warsh will soon join them - as Fed Chair.
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