Jyack1213

@shmilylt @Balsikafi Stock trading like that. Frustrating. Should have enough liquidity to get through 2027, without cutting any opex. Even w/out cost cuts - small cash hole to get to other side. They should have plenty of options - outside straight equity, assuming they hit their projections.

@Balsikafi Equity rasie is the basic assumption, isn't it?

$RPID 1Q summary: Inline-pos. Rec rev up 30%. No one-offs. Mgmt v pos, usually too conservative. MM service agmt signals greater closeness. Stock low - fears of equity raise between now and late 2027. Cost step down this quarter coincides with accelerating growth. 2Q big qtr

@InvestSpecial Agree. I’m new to the situation - post failed strategic. CEO and his group clearly incentivized to make $ here - 33% interest I believe. To walk away from $22 bid and do nothing with your stock at the lows seems crazy. Don’t love the biz but seems like it’s way oversold IMO

Let's see if all of that actually translates into FCF. The company is still bleeding revenue fast. And that 2024 buyback, in hindsight, has not been a great move. Can we expect anything better from this management? Not sure. The company should have been sold, and the fact that insiders did not match the bid from Lemonis does not look great in terms of how much upside they see here.

What a disaster $BARK has been since the deal rejection. Down another 30% since the Lemonis bid was rejected. Insiders not coming back to the table, at least for now. Good reminder for $PETS arbs: massive spreads are there for a reason. Exit while you still can. Deal is dead.

@InvestSpecial $20mm+ cash on balance sheet + q4 working capital inflows + $15mm tariff refund potential + $28mm cost cut announced in March. Not sure this business is burning much if any free cash flow, this year, but we’ll see. They bought back a boatload of stock in the $20s in 2024…

@wolverineyack They can't really do that; the company is burning too much cash.

@mmauskopf @Valuemaverick Are you still involved? How do you think it plays out from here - valuation seems silly

@Valuemaverick CEO trying to steal co. I’m pissed but nothing I can do . Hoping a little bidding war .

There a few scenarios for the $bark buyout 1. Marcus win at $1.10 2. Marcus pulls out and MBO wins at $.90 cents 3. More bidders show up and either partner with management or Marcus or alone. 4. All bidders walk away. Options are saying winner will be $1.10 or higher but known winner. In the 3 of the 4 scenarios you can make money from .10 cents a share to .30 cents a share. The 4th scenario and the stock goes to $.50 cents but board and mgmt will be fired or need to be removed.

@Valuemaverick Any updated thoughts? I’m new to the name - seems like you’re buying at basement level prices though. Tons of gross profit for a strategic to buy, optionality on tariff refund, low float - share buyback can move needle. Don’t love the segments but seems like a lot of value

@richtrades100 New to the name. Any updated thoughts? Seems like a lot of optionality, at these prices.

Biggest issue for $BARK last year and this, were tariffs. The two bidders are getting this for a BARGAIN price if successful in their attempts. Now, tariffs appear to be potentially over LT. Remember, 90c bid from insiders. 1.10 bid from GNK. Moellis to give their verdict soon

@Off_The_Tape Makes 0 sense that B shares trade at $109 and A shares in the $11s. Same economics. Crazy.

$kelyB ... x.com/Off_The_Tape/s…

@MicroCapClub $ELUT sold a biz that closed in October - screens poorly until next report. ~$1 of cash at year end + value of small existing biz + huge option value pending approval from FDA on new product. Small burn. 1 year hence, you’ll have north of stock in cash + answer from FDA.

What are your favorite microcaps that are being punted at year end for the tax loss?

@richtrades100 Still following? Been under a ton of technical pressure - tax loss - Deerfield and recently from HighCape distribution to LPs. Should have close to $1 of cash at year end + value of small existing biz + huge option value pending approval from FDA on new product. Seems asymmetric

$ELUT - good news, they cleared debt, bad news, biz, is essentially starting from the ground up again

@CapitalFang Take a look at $PRSU. High single digit PF EBITDA. Incredible assets in national parks (hotels + attractions). Banff Gondola crown jewel - $30mm+ EBITDA. Much less capex. Growing same-store, pristine balance sheet (another $25mm cash inflow 12/31). CEO just bought some stock

Looking at a set of beaten down high EBITDA margin "consumer experience" names: $PLAY, $LUCK, $PRKS, $FUN, $MCW. TopGolf gone. Been 12-18 months since I've looked at the theme parks. $PLAY stinks, but could squeeze. Prefer $MCW, but wish they were as s/h friendly like $LUCK.

@BoyarValue Stepping down to spend more time with his wife, among other reasons. Would think he would want to sell the team, which he has absolutely no ties. Everyone incentivized heavily & recent transactions suggest massive upside. Any idea why the stock has languished so much lately?

Big news for John Malone fans... ‘Cable cowboy’ John Malone to step down from media and telecoms empire Curious what if anything it means for $BATRK $BATRA bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@depr248 @SFarringtonBKC @Wolfdog_Capital I’m thinking $235-240mm revs, EBITDA in the mid $30s.

@wolverineyack @SFarringtonBKC @Wolfdog_Capital what numbers are you thinking Q3 looks like? I think rev in 250 range, eps below $2.5, ebitda $35ish.

Kinda thinking $JAKK is a lower risk near term double

@depr248 @SFarringtonBKC @Wolfdog_Capital Should be well understood that 3Q is a tough comp YOY. Even still, in a year with tariff uncertainty and underwhelming content slate, should still do $25-30mm+ EBITDA and generate FCF. What’s the downside, when the stock trades at 4-5x trough EBITDA? Decent divvy while you wait.

@SFarringtonBKC @Wolfdog_Capital See my back and forth with some putz about tariffs. Even people writing about jakk don’t have a clue

@taobanker @RecoveryTrade Hotels have exposure but small part of the overall business. Movies are a cheap form of entertainment, when economy turns, and it’s all about the slate - which looks strong. So much optionality - btw real estate, buybacks, sell/spin one of the segments. Eventually it’ll turn

@wolverineyack @RecoveryTrade i understand the capex cycle but they'll still get hammered in a downturn selling $20 movie tickets and hotel rooms

$MCS I wrote it up 2 years ago saying it was fairly valued at around this price $433mm market cap movie theater + hotel owner-operator. Ballpark 2/3 of ebitda from theaters, 1/3 from hotel, but keep in mind hotel capex is a bitch. Spent a metric fuckton -- $300mm+ -- upgrading their movie theaters in the years leading up to 2020. Massive L but at least they have nice theaters now. And we are still depreciating those investments, $45mm a year while movie theater maintenance capex is prob $15mm-$20mm now. Similarly I believe they caught up on hotel capex over the last few years. Point being -- we prob should add back like $30mm of depreciation, putting us in potential double digit free cash flow zone. Problem is while box office expectations may have bottomed, management recently leaned into hotel with what seems like a pretty poorly-timed acquisition. Doesn't seem like these folks are great at business. Ultimately for two mediocre businesses stitched together by mediocre nepo management, I think it's best to stay on the sidelines and see if this turns into a real pukefest...

@taobanker @RecoveryTrade Usually stocks underperform like this when the business is embarking on a multi year major capex spend. That’s currently behind them. The stock trades at a similar price to when they had dilutive converts outstanding, uncertain box office, major capex ahead, half the EBITDA.

@wolverineyack @RecoveryTrade if consumer stocks flush

@taobanker @RecoveryTrade Stock can’t catch a bid. Frustrating. Valuation makes little sense. Real estate alone is worth north of the stock. Slate looks solid. Agree it’s time for mgmt to back the truck up on buybacks. Flush with cash soon. What’s the justification for $8?

@RecoveryTrade 8 is possible if hotels shit the bed

@carolinaderby Seems like Ohio has decent momentum. What gives you pause? If not Ohio, what state do you think legalizes first?

I am opportunistic Ohio joins the iGaming party within two years. This year? We will see. 🤷‍♂️

@BitMoreLeverage @GHeator Wouldn’t we get a court ruling (June 9th) before that and would a delisting really change Orbic’s desire to own the assets? It’s a fascinating situation. I’m not sure I see an end game for mgmt, that ends well, if they don’t engage on a sale - even at a much lower price.

@BargainHunter07 Special committee also came back and, among other asks, wanted price bump to $4.21. Seems like they’re willing to play ball. Bid-ask doesn’t seem too far off. Orbic presumably not going through all this trouble for nothing..

Orbic and AJP have filed a complaint to Delaware court for breach of fiduciary duty and wrongful rejection of BoD nomination 💪 $SONM