John Seiler

My latest article: Trump and Sympathy for the Devil in Ankara, by @writejohnseiler open.substack.com/pub/johnseiler…

@MarioNawfal Delusional

🇫🇷🇺🇦 Macron on the importance of defending Ukraine: "Those who think this war will stop at Ukraine's borders if we yield or seek to accommodate the aggressor are wrong. The history of our continent has taught us what capitulation costs. We will not make that mistake again." Writers: Mhedi, Michael

Trump's foreign policy ratings are going down into the Strait of Hormuz with big midterm implications. Voters trusted him by 10 pt over Harris in 2024 on foreign policy. His net approval now is -22 pt. Trust in him on Russia-Ukraine is down 20 pt. Voters hate him on Iran too.

@luke_nicastro Communism died 1991. Neocon militarism didn't

A misleading caption, but the fact that Johnson is doing this bizarre domestic red-baiting routine while talking about the defense budget is noteworthy

@EricRSammons What's OG? Old guard? Yes, we should charitable. But the trad thing simply went on too long. Time to come back into the church and fight with the rest of us on the front lines and if necessary suffer and maybe have a heart attack from the bad music at the Novus Ordo.

Michael Matt is an OG trad, but far more importantly, he’s a good man.

December 2025: Jack Smith swore under oath that he didn't spy on text messages belonging to members of Congress. Today: New evidence confirms he spied on dozens of members of Congress, myself included. This is a blatant abuse of power, and exactly what our Founders warned about.

@ThomasEWoods Good thing Trump was elected instead of Hillary or we would have just gotten more Forever Wars.

Yeah, remember those days when the two wings of the empire could yuk it up together in happy harmony while bombing the shit out of God knows who It brings a tear to my eye to recall those wonderful days

10 year bond is now trading over 5%. Imagine being the one in charge of trying to refinance our $39 trillion dollar debt as it comes time to roll it over.

@FlashReport Democratize his fortune. After him in office 8 years, we all could use some of his wine for free.

“The only way to save our country is to increase the role of the federal government in the American society.”

Donors vs. the Base — Why the GOP Betrays | Barnes and Baris: What Are the Odds? The GOP donor class doesn't at all share the values of the GOP base, and when they win elections, the donor class wants payback and the base wants promises kept. The donor class wins every single time. @barnes_law and @Peoples_Pundit explain to Chat. Pre-Order "Burn It Down: What the Polls Say Young Americans Really Want" amazon.com/dp/B0GV4PT4LB

@Stanovaya Stalingrad

Putin does not believe that Ukraine's strike campaign can break Russian society. He reads it as a Western attempt to make his position fragile, and he is drawing conclusions from that reading which are not the ones being anticipated in Western capitals. The new R.Politik Bulletin, No. 13 (187), is out today. The assumption underpinning current Western policy is that mounting pressure will eventually bring Putin to the negotiating table. Trump has said publicly that the strikes on Russian refineries are "an escalation that can help lead to an end". Moscow's reply, and more importantly its private calculation, points the other way. The bulletin sets out what the Kremlin actually concludes from the pressure it is under, why that conclusion produces an incentive to escalate rather than to soften, and where the escalation is most likely to go next as the geography of the war widens. The fuel crisis has become the central issue of Russian politics, and the authorities are managing it in a way that tells you a great deal about how the system now works under strain. The bulletin explains what is being decided, by whom, and what the Kremlin expects the political cost to be before the September vote. Andrei Melnichenko's essay in The Economist has been read in incompatible ways: as a declaration of loyalty, as a text written in the presidential administration and merely signed, as a businessman breaking with the war. R.Politik's reading differs from all of them. Even if it changes nothing in practice, the essay may mark the beginning of something consequential for the fate of the regime. The bulletin sets out what it is actually proposing, and who its real addressee is. The same pressures run through the rest of the issue: Lukashenko's narrowing room for manoeuvre between Moscow and Kyiv; the pre-election congresses and what United Russia's list reveals about the Kremlin's read on its own society; the arrests around the Rotenberg brothers and what is really being contested there; and Moscow's decision to install an outsider in South Ossetia for the first time since 2008. R.Politik Bulletin No. 13 (187) examines how these decisions are taken under pressure. Available at rpolitik.com/bulletin/13-20…

A Ukrainian police officer has a gun to this Ukrainian man’s head because he doesn't want to fight in the war This is the part of #Ukraine's conscription Zelensky doesn't want the world to see. @MarioNawfal

The hidden history of the deadliest, most destructive US proxy war in history is here just in time for Trump’s final betrayal of his promise to end the conflict You won’t understand how much you were lied to about Ukraine until you read Aaron’s debut book

@stevenmaviglio @CalPERS Are any right-wingers left in CA?

Looks like we can put an end to the "sky is falling" chatter from right-wingers about @CalPERS after it more than doubles its targeted returns. This is just 1 number and factor, however, and the fact remains: @CalPERS is in robust shape.

Ukrainians that Zelensky need for war will no longer be allowed into the EU. The EU paid for a proxy army and demands that it fights to the last man.

Tyrant

"...you better agree on these principles"? WTH are you, Speaker Johnson, to give us a lecture? You treat us as subjects rather than American citizens who knows our rights that keeps us free under the US Constitution.

@KATYSaccitizen Happy birthday!

This birthday my husband threatened to turn me in for two 32-year olds - our long standing joke going back 35 years. 🤣 I just visited my grandsons, which explains the joy on my face. "We turn not older with years but newer every day." -Emily Dickinson

@KATYSaccitizen @LorenaSGonzalez How can you "turn your back" on a state? Our country is America, not California.

Newsom neglects to say that he and former Assemblywoman @LorenaSGonzalez drove Musk out of California, and right into the awaiting arms of Texas.

@KofmanMichael But Russia just took Konstantinovka and is winning

New article with Greg Whisler. We lay out how the Russian force expanded during the war leading to a paradox: as the quantity grew, its ability to employ force at scale decreased. As Moscow fielded more forces, the value of that mass steadily diminished. warontherocks.com/a-return-to-ma…

GM - Flock says they have a 7% error rate when reading plates, which means 1.4 BILLION "alerts" from their system aren't accurate every month. No liability for Flock, just 1.4 billion chances police draw guns on another innocent person.