Anton

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Anton

Anton

@xdBergarn

the majority is always wrong

Katılım Şubat 2018
582 Takip Edilen271 Takipçiler
Cluseau Investments
Cluseau Investments@blondesnmoney·
People think financials are dead money, but my collection of favorite banks, insurers, and discount-to-nav situations is up 14% YTD. All of them (with the exception of IBKR) trade at less than 10x forward earnings, a significant discount to peers, and repurchase shares regularly. Right now there are only 18 members (Stonex was sold at a gain), but HRTG will probably be added after reporting Q1 earnings (which I expect will be very strong, but just want to make sure). On the hunt to find 2 other names to round it out to 21 components.
Cluseau Investments tweet media
Cluseau Investments@blondesnmoney

Another fresh high in the Blackjack 21. Banks, Insurance, Investment Banks, Discount to NAV Setups, hopefully something for everyone. Average YTD return of 9%, average P/E still a mere 8.1x (excluding Interactive).

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Olle
Olle@89Olle·
Börsen just nu vill se en vändning fullföljas innan uppvärderingar. Nu är kurs ner från 20-22 kr (runt rapporten) till 17,55 (& ner 17% på ett år). Vid samma tidpunkt för ett år sedan var ARR 119m & fallande, nu är det 131m & ökande. Jag äger orimlig mkt aktier här. DYODD
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Olle
Olle@89Olle·
I Q4 2024 minskade $Nepa OPEX med 21,7% & ökade samtidigt orderingången med 20,7%. Resultatet blev EBITDAC ökning från 1,9 -> 6,6m SEK. MEN resultatförbättringen drevs enbart av OPEX minskningen, INTE av orderingången. Försäljningsökningen var årskontrakt, med låg effekt direkt.
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@Analytikern1234 Aldrig direkt kollat på Klarna och ser att provisions/GMV diffar med 1bps några kvartal men, enl IFRS måste de ta ECL provision direkt med nytt lån, rimligt att då visa "upfront provisions" om man inte tror ECL ska spegla faktiska NPLs. Har inget med ändrad redovisning att göra
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Magnus Skoog
Magnus Skoog@Analytikern1234·
Klarna kommunicerar mer likt ett skitbolag på First North än ett mångmiljardbolag noterat i USA. Att ändra hur man redovisar (kreditförluster i detta fall) är ett av de äldsta och sämsta tricken i lurendrejeri-boken för att dölja dåliga siffror
Magnus Skoog tweet mediaMagnus Skoog tweet mediaMagnus Skoog tweet mediaMagnus Skoog tweet media
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@89Olle Träffar mig rakt i hjärtat
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Olle
Olle@89Olle·
Börsåret 2025: 0,9% avkastning efter en rad felbeslut. Ett försökt att fundera kring helheten, snarare än 2025 års misslyckanden. En splittrad investerare försöker hitta vägen framåt. Blir det återkomst eller haveri 2026? CAGR nere på 49,6% (13 år). jakten.blogspot.com/2026/02/borsar…
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@BodenPJ Vad har ni värderat Intellego possen till i ert NAV?
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BodenPJ
BodenPJ@BodenPJ·
Intellego sagan fortsätter spela ut värre än man kunde tro. En mindre corp firma försökte sälja aktier på 20 pct lägre pris än senaste. Vi fick förklara att handeln är stoppad och 20 pct verkar ganska låg discount.
Sven Nordenstam@SvenNordenstam

Intellego: bomben med stort B. Typ ALL försäljning (utom Daro) 2025 kan vara luft. Det osar katt big tajm även om 2024 och vissa affärer 2023. Själv inte så överraskad, men fy 17 vilken kalldusch för aktieägarna. Och varför är kassan så liten? mfn.se/a/intellego/fo…

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Ekan
Ekan@ekbucken·
@Snaljapen 2026 kan bli året det lossnar för Kambi. Annars blir det new takes inför 2027
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Olle Qvarnström
Olle Qvarnström@Snaljapen·
Näta vecka är stora iGaming-mässan ICE i Barcelona. Jag råkar ha vägarna förbi. Vad ska jag spendera tid på?
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@the_zack_zhu Ha wow.. That really speaks about the growth potential still left, fascinating, thx. I might jump in with more questions down the road, still early in the learnings process here! Appreciate it Zack
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Zack Zhu
Zack Zhu@the_zack_zhu·
Yeah. $SE Shopee is a second generation eCommerce platform. The penetration and usage limit is a lot higher than the first generation of eCommerce that dominates western economy. Shopee Monthly active users is over 60% of Taiwan's population. About the order volume, Shopee actually still got a lot of room to grow, it's still a lot lower compare to China! And we got a much higher income. China now average 141 parcels per year. (and a lot of people are still in the villages, the usage is still really low)
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Zack Zhu
Zack Zhu@the_zack_zhu·
It’s wild to think that Taiwan — despite having just 23 million people — remains $SE Shopee’s second-largest market by GMV. Taiwan alone contributed $20B+ GMV in 2024, which is approximately 20% of Shopee’s overall GMV. The top 3 markets of $SE Shopee in 2024: - Indonesia: ~$26B - Taiwan: ~$22B - Brazil: ~$11B Brazil’s GDP is 50% larger than Indonesia’s, so it has the potential to overtake both and become Shopee’s top market in the future. - What’s even more surprising is the gap between Taiwan’s real eCommerce activity and official stats. Our government estimates the 2024 eCommerce market at just $21B, with a penetration rate of 13.5%. These numbers are widely cited — but misleading. In contrast, earlier government reports from 2017 estimated Taiwan’s eCommerce at over $40B (with $25B from B2C). So what happened? If you read the fine print, the current stats exclude transactions on marketplaces like Shopee. 🤦‍♂️ This is a classic case of outdated or flawed metrics, something all too common in developing countries. - Unfortunately, this kind of underreporting may be one reason Shopee Taiwan has been ignore by the public.
Zack Zhu@the_zack_zhu

Did $SE investor knows that in 2017, Taiwan contribute more than half of the Shopee's GMV? Taiwan was Shopee first best market! Historically speaking, management team rarely talks about Taiwan despite Taiwan is still Shopee's second biggest market by GMV and the most profitable ones. They don't talk about Taiwan for two reasons. 1) Taiwan only got 23M population, it's a very small market population wise. It's not good for capital markets. 2) They are super dominant in Taiwan, monopolies don't talk about how dominant they are, especially when they got Chinese link that might irritate Taiwanese government politically. Should I talk more about Taiwan eCommerce Market more? ( Taiwan order size is estimate to be 2~3x higher than SEA)

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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@the_zack_zhu Thanks - Crazy penetration: ~40 orders/capita a year then... And they don't offer food there it seems...
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Zack Zhu
Zack Zhu@the_zack_zhu·
Taiwan’s AOV is estimate about 20USD ~30USD! It’s 2~3 times of SEA. (Taiwan is a much wealthy country) The GMV is calculated by the GMV numbers - SEA GMV - Shopee Brazil. It’s about that number! SEA numbers is from momentum works. Shopee Brazil was from research done by Brazil banks. We can also get similar results using Taiwan logistic data.
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@GabGrowth Growth runaway with focus on duration and "mature" margins. Easy to underestimate the terminal value here. Shopee and Monee Think the long-term optionality and prospects for Monee might be underappreciated as well...
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Gab
Gab@GabGrowth·
Asking because i’m not sure if there’s enough value that can be brought. Have covered $SE quite thoroughly and recently. Maybe drop some questions that you might want answered and I’ll see if it’s long enough to warrant a post.
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Andreas Svedlert
Andreas Svedlert@Howardshore17·
@xdBergarn Jag ser bara en normalisering på vinstmarginalen som en rejäl uppsida. Exempel: +20% omtillväxt med en i mina ögon låg VM (15%) skulle ge ~p/e 15 på nästa år. Min mer optimistiska vy är att bolaget bör kunna takta min 20% med 20+%VM om~2-3år Då kan du räkna själv :)
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Andreas Svedlert
Andreas Svedlert@Howardshore17·
1. Då var det dags att summera 2025. Det blev ett otroligt swängigt år. Stora misstag där jag fått inse mitt misstag och ta stoppen (smart eye) Lumen har under året snabbt byggts upp till mitt absolut störst innehav, och Gasporox har jag lämnat (for now) ser bättre i annat.
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@Howardshore17 Vad har du för estimat på Lumen och varför?
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Olle
Olle@89Olle·
@Snaljapen Har sällan varit tydligare att alla köper samma saker.
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Olle Qvarnström
Olle Qvarnström@Snaljapen·
Den röda tråden? Folk verkar inte screena fram sina bästa idéer. De kommer nästan alltid från annat håll. Kontaktnät fullt av idéer verkar vara nyckelfaktor nr 1 för småbolagsinvestering.
Olle Qvarnström@Snaljapen

Dagens fråga: Den bästa investeringen du gjort hittills. HUR hittade du den? Screenade? Läste AFV? Kollade bottenlistan? Tips? Annat? För min egen del var det en oskyldig fråga från @Carlmarkus1 som frågade om inte LMK Group såg liiite för slaktat ut.

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Stckpkr
Stckpkr@stckpkr·
Kanske dagens intressantaste datapunkt: Google testar att integrera fastighetsannonser direkt i sökresultat. Kanske får omvärdera mina något mindre negativa utsikter för Hemnet igen. mikedp.com/articles/2025/…
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Mikheil Lomtadze
Mikheil Lomtadze@m_lomtadze·
On October 31 in Almaty, Kaspi.kz held a presentation where the company’s Co-Founder and CEO, Mikhail Lomtadze, introduced new solutions that make the lives of millions of Kazakhstani people more convenient, secure, and inspiring. Every Kaspi.kz presentation is a step into the future — and this evening once again demonstrated how technologies created in Kazakhstan are changing everyday reality. The main highlight was Kaspi Alaqan — a new way to pay using just your palm. No card. No phone. No internet. You can also use Kaspi Alaqan to verify your identity at Kaspi ATMs. The technology combines simplicity with an exceptional level of protection — even higher than the well-known Kaspi ID, which keeps millions of users safe every day as they log into the Kaspi.kz app, ATMs, and Cardomats. The first person to make a palm payment live on stage was Shavkat Rakhmonov, MMA champion and hero of the Kaspi.kz “Made in Kazakhstan” campaign. Kaspi Alaqan will be available in Almaty this December, and later — across the entire country. Mikhail Lomtadze also announced two new tools for entrepreneurs: Kaspi AI — an intelligent assistant for Kaspi Store partners. It helps create product listings by selecting photos, filling in characteristics, and generating descriptions. What we had used earlier, it took hours — and now it takes just minutes. The partner always makes the final decision. Kaspi AI will launch in January 2026. Outdoor Advertising — a new service that helps partners promote their products beyond Kaspi.kz. Their ads will reach millions of customers on Instagram, Facebook, Google, and TikTok. The service will become available in November. “Kaspi.kz is a team creating technologies in Kazakhstan for people and businesses. We’re proud that our services make life simpler and opportunities greater. Thank you to all our customers and partners for your trust — you make Kaspi better every day,” — said Mikhail Lomtadze. Kaspi.kz continues to expand its ecosystem — built in Kazakhstan — so that technology serves people, empowers businesses, and strengthens the country’s leadership in global innovation. $KSPI
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@Djurvaenn Podd-ide: Studentföreningsmästerskap i case pitchar. HCM är en lågoddsare
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Djurvaenn
Djurvaenn@Djurvaenn·
handels capital management
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Anton
Anton@xdBergarn·
@leonardo_1452_ I think you should check out $htws, all points mentions will be highly relevant at their CMD in Nov. Trading at 10x fcf growing 10% p.a.
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leonardo1452
leonardo1452@leonardo_1452_·
New article on the blog from me: I wrote about growth, leverage and implications for equity investors. Let me know if you have any thoughts. Companies included: $TIGO, $PM, $BRK, $SWMA (honorary mention), TCI
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Redeye Microcap
Redeye Microcap@microcap_redeye·
@MartinWahl111 behöver utmanare på topplistan. In och pitcha ett case för att kunna läsa de som finns sedan tidigare, bra write-ups på $NEPA, $MSON och $EMBELL (x2) bland annat. // @BenonJacob mcc.redeye.se
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