Max

我制作分享的特斯拉投资信息。希望对有意投资特斯拉的朋友们有些益处： youtube.com/playlist?list=…

@Teslarati Their conclusion will be irrelevant because the version they probed will be too old.

🚨 The NHTSA said it was upgrading a probe into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) platform to an “engineering analysis” It will examine 3.2 million vehicles and aims to determine its effectiveness in evaluating degraded road conditions

@doongyidaddy @TradexWhisperer Micron stands sideline watching HBF, doesn’t it

@TradexWhisperer Holding/buying until they cannot stack HBMs and HBFs any higher. HBFs hasn’t even started

$MU earnings after the bell. Holding, adding, or waiting for the print? What's your trigger to buy more?

@damnang2 Hope he read it. My first reaction was to consider reducing my tsla holding lol. I think it imposes too much risks to Tesla. Maybe jv like between sandisk and kioxia is good model. The demand is likely real.

Terafab is BS. At least to an ordinary semiconductor engineer like me. But Elon has always been like that. He has made the impossible happen. Rockets, electric cars, and satellite internet. In this piece, I break down in detail why the Terafab idea makes no sense from the perspective of a former foundry engineer, and also examine what form it could take if anyone were to pull it off, it would be Elon.

@pbeisel x.com/damnang2/statu…

Terafab may be the most essential vertical integration Tesla has ever undertaken— and it is truly non-optional. It will take years to build and will test even Elon’s speedrunning abilities to the limit, but that won’t stop him from trying. The breakthrough likely lies in overhauling the overall facility’s cleanroom model. By moving wafers in sealed pods with localized micro-environments, the fab no longer needs a monolithic ultra-clean space. Elon’s line about “eating cheeseburgers and smoking cigars” on the fab floor isn’t silly, it’s the practical reality of a radically simpler, cheaper, faster approach that could finally change the economics of chipmaking. This is all forced by the brutal “pinch” in chip supply. Tesla must produce on the order of 100–200 billion AI chips per year just to saturate its roadmap. That volume powers: FSD cars & Robotaxis (tens of millions of vehicles needing AI5 inference for near-perfect autonomy), Physical Optimus (scaling from thousands today to millions per year, each requiring AI5/AI6-level compute), Digital Optimus (the new xAI-Tesla software agents for digital/office automation, running massive inference clusters), Space-based data centers (AI7/Dojo3 orbital compute for GW-scale training and inference beyond Earth limits). AI5 delivers the ~10× leap for vehicles and early robots; AI6 shifts focus to Optimus + terrestrial DCs; AI7 goes orbital. No external foundry (TSMC, Samsung, etc.) can deliver that scale or timeline— hence the Terafab launch. Without it, the entire robotics + autonomy future hits a brick wall. Terafab isn’t optional; it’s the only way forward.

@nymbusjp Throw mud on the wall and hope some stick

Seriously? But you've got accounts claiming "our research shows self-driving is now a piece of cake and will be a commodity... tools have evolved so much that a student will be able to make self-driving for a school project." LMAO.

@yunta_tsai @wholemars @the_hoph Do we know if it was disengaged?

@the_hoph There was a collision on I-280, and the Cybercab dodged the road debris at high speed while most human drivers slammed on the brakes. I was super impressed.

Our teams hate driving. So whenever there's a new vehicle bring-up, we work extra hard until it can take us home and back—not for demo, but for our sanity.

@Tslachan Have to consider the recent proposal from NHTSA to take effect mid next month?

$TSLA As soon as Cybercab is put into the robotaxi fleet after it is produced, Unsupervised will skyrocket.

@teslayoda It is the value of saleship and focus

Why isn't Elon more like Jensen? Tesla would be a $4.20T dollar company by now.

@RnaudBertrand our soldiers are sent there and die by habit? our tax payers' blood and sweat money burn there by habit?

Unreal. Trump says he went to war with Iran "out of habit," adding "which is not a good thing to do." Rare moment of lucidity, I guess 😏

@SawyerMerritt Where are the vehicles from?

NEWS: Nvidia and Uber today announced an expanded partnership to launch a fleet of autonomous vehicles powered by the full-stack Nvidia Drive AV software across 28 cities and four continents by 2028, beginning with Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of 2027. "This Drive Hyperion-powered fleet will tap into NVIDIA Alpamayo open models and the NVIDIA Halos operating system to accelerate the development and deployment of safe, scalable robotaxi services worldwide."

@ray4tesla Wait and see

At NVDIA GTC 2026, Jensen Huang announced the ChatGPT moment of self driving cars has arrived: “As you know, we've been working on self driving cars for a long time. The ChatGPT moment of self driving cars has arrived. We now know we could successfully, autonomously drive cars. And today we are announcing four new partners for Nvidia's robotaxi ready platform, BYD, Hyundai, Nissan, Geely, all together, 18 million cars built each year, joining our partners from before - Mercedes, Toyota, GM. The number of robotaxi-ready cars in the future are going to be incredible. And we're announcing also a big partnership with Uber.”

@Tslachan It is MegaBlock instead of Megapack if it’s in Houston

$TSLA NEWS: Tesla has signed a $4.3 billion contract to receive LFP batteries for ESS at its LG Energy Solutions plant in Michigan. (This contract was signed in July last year, but the U.S. internal affairs officially confirmed it this time.) The contract will begin to be supplied in 2027 and the cells will be mounted on Tesla Megapack, which will be produced in Houston, Texas.

Huge

@teslayoda By licensing FSD they essentially become a car assembly line for Tesla. They would rather die.

Why isn't there at least one auto company, US or China, who's interested in licensing FSD?

@niccruzpatane Good luck with that for true eyes-off

Ford CEO Jim Farley: “Just around the corner, like in a couple years, most of the car companies (I know at Ford) will be offering eyes-off highway driving. So you push a button on the highway and the car drives for you, that's all found time. Unlike a lot of promise to autonomy, it actually is. We now have to think about the car as a third space.”

@ray4tesla This is reckless click bait. FSD is not yet L4. Irresponsible to himself and his viewers.

History made — the first Model 3 drives itself autonomously on public roads with no steering wheel.

@Tslachan Fab is very risky business. I hope Tesla refer to the model of sandisk kioxia JV model where Kioxia produces flash die for sandisk.

If Tesla started TerraFab, what would be your opinion on this?

@nymbusjp No evidence of Optimus is solved

Signal: FSD is solved, and Optimus is probably also largely solved (at least the brain). Ashok moves on to the next project. Optimus and FSD are very similar AI technologies. It doesn't surprise me that both are solved simultaneously.

@XiaoZha62335239 1. Robotaxi 跟伊战关系可以忽略 2.3.4. Cybercab顺利生产是软件顺利的最明确的指标。其它可以忽略 除非有明确声明 无须过度揣摩。重事实轻言论。

我也是一个老TSLA投资者了，最早买入TSLA的时候是我看到FSD v12 端到端跑出来了，Elon发邮件让所有sales必须让客户体验FSD的时候，那个时候股价177。之后除了Elon和Trump撕破脸的时候从未卖出过。但我现在感觉到TSLA的重大危机，跟各位拆开了讲一下 1. 伊朗战争一旦打成泥潭，联储降息预期减弱，甚至出现滞涨交易，TSLA这种forwar PE高到爆炸，市梦率高的标的被压缩估值最狠，这不是高油价下多卖几辆车能抵消的。具体传导机制找grok问下即可 2. Robotaxi实际扩张停滞。各位看下面的图，蓝色是Bay Area fleet规模，黄色是Austin的规模，绿色是无安全员的真正的robotaxi的规模（被目击到8辆，其实只有1辆）。蓝色还在增长是因为湾区法规更严，特斯拉在湾区的fleet安全员是坐在驾驶座上的（这根本不叫robotaxi，就是自己FSD开车载个人罢了）。Austin的robotaxi无论是无安全员还是安全员坐副驾驶，fleet数量都完全停滞。如果无监督自动驾驶在软件层面已经就绪，在cybercab（没有方向盘）大规模量产之前不进行充分测试是不可理喻的，我非常倾向于事实上还没有ready。现在市场就是在赌，Elon敢于量产cybercab说明他非常有信心，肯定是马上就要做好了。但是万一没有呢... 万一那最后0.0000001%进度卡住了呢？一旦cybercab量产后，还没有robotaxi重大进展的消息，这个信心一旦翻转... 3. Elon自己的信心也在减弱，我是做程序自己去monitor Elon发的TSLA贴的自信度的。Elon在进入2026年以后对robotaxi的乐观程度其实是大幅度下降的，他不再像2025年底一样经常自信发布具体的时间线，而是转而强调无监督FSD的难度和革命性意义。和超远期tesla的前景和估值。在我看来这是信心下降的表现 4. Elon急于给XAI融资，推动SpaceX上市，甚至到了要交易所和指数公司修改指数规则的地步。预期今年6月SpaceX ipo，他一定会不惜一切手段去pump SpaceX的股价。如果这个时候TSLA长期投资者对TSLA的信心减弱（他们还是信Elon的）转向SpaceX造成资金轮动... 我建议TSLA的投资者密切关注 robotaxi的进展，这是一切布局的阵眼，一旦cybercab量产后仍无有效进展... 这是tracker网站，你们自己收好 robotaxitracker.com