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@yet
nothing to no one / but rays of the sun
Katılım Mart 2008
860 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
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This is maybe obvious to everyone, but it just occurred to me why bioterrorism is such a significant model risk. It's analogous to code with vulnerabilities that can never be patched.
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01
The new version completely smashes GPT-5.5 and the previous Mythos version. Before Mythos Preview completed the cyber range 3 out of 10 times. The new version completed it 6 out of 10 times and is much more efficient!
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The linear representation hypothesis says neural networks encode concepts as directions in activation space.
We trained a small model where 7 of 8 features behave this way. The 8th doesn't.
$2,500+ in prizes to whoever can tell us how it's actually encoded. Bonus points if you can train a model with an even weirder representation.
Link in thread 🧵

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Space launch was a clear case where there was a large difference in efficiency between what was possible and what was done in practice before SpaceX. A large part of that was due to everything being locked in to what (just barely) already worked, with huge risk aversion. WIth national prestige or a half billion dollar geosync satellite on the line, speculative engineering ideas that might result in a public debacle were not welcome.
When failure is not an option, success can stay very expensive. You need to experiment to improve, and that fundamentally means being comfortable with failure. If you know it is going to work, it isn’t an experiment.
I have long believed that nuclear power today is in precisely the same state as space launch two decades ago, but the even more pressing question now is if semiconductor fabrication might also be.
On the one hand, Moore’s Law has been a sequence of heroic miracles of technology at the wafer fabrication level, grinding out hundreds of compounding small improvements.
On the other hand, fabs are “too big to fail”, and there are elements of extreme conservatism at play. Intel’s “Copy exactly!” fab development exemplifies that mindset – instead of every new building being an opportunity to explore and optimize processes, it was deemed more valuable to just replicate.
While each individual machine may be straining against physical limits of technology, it is possible that the systems orchestrating them all together could be far from optimal.
The explore / exploit axis is fundamental to all decision making, but human risk avoidance probably biases away from optimal exploration.
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@SecScottBessent The existential threat is not about chatbots (governable by global standards). It's about the creation of superintelligent machines that nobody understands. US labs say they run that risk; foreign labs do too. We need international coordination to ensure nobody builds it.
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In the best case scenario, Trump struck a deal to reopen a Strait that was open before the pointless war he started, with the IRGC demonstrating its control over the Strait and potentially extracting fees plus sanctions relief. Thousands of innocents - including hundreds of children - dead in Lebanon and Iran for no reason. U.S. troops killed and wounded. U.S. embassies and bases in the Middle East badly damaged. U.S. standing in the world obliterated. U.S. munitions badly depleted. Hundreds of billions spent. Prices up everywhere. More global economic fallout to come. Putin strengthened and enriched. Just a catastrophic situation even in the best of circumstances. A profoundly shameful episode in American history no matter what happens next.
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Imagine Dario hopping on TikTok and saying "holy shit guys wake up, I think we're close to AIs that can automate AI research." Direct communication is underutilized.
Chief Nerd@TheChiefNerd
🚨 Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: “We are so close to these models reaching the level of human intelligence, and yet there doesn't seem to be a wider recognition in society of what's about to happen … There hasn't been a public awareness of the risks.”
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A primer on existential AI risk typingfactory.substack.com/p/what-are-we-…
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