Yair Ghitza

@chaboard2 @jon_m_rob @tbonier @carlosodio @Nate_Cohn @mjfrias sorry tough to do that, i had these numbers from a project back when we wrote that report. would be a pretty big lift to dig out the old databases, will respond if i end up doing it

@yghitza @jon_m_rob @tbonier @carlosodio @Nate_Cohn @mjfrias Any chance of getting those same figures but excluding - the sub-22yos that aged into eligibility for the second election - so it's an apples-to-apples 'returning voter' figure?

Would urge other pollsters to follow lead of @Nate_Cohn & publish xtabs by 2020 recall - inc. the "didn't vote." Not odd to expect 20-30% of '24 voters will have sat out '20. That's a big new variable (& would be at lower shares too!)

@jon_m_rob @tbonier @carlosodio @Nate_Cohn @mjfrias Short answer is 80% in 2012, 76% in 2016, 74% in 2020. LOTS of state variation. Some fuzziness in these numbers cuz of matching, but we think that's maybe 1-2% or so. 2020 report described this in more detail, Figure 18. You might recognize the author 🙂 catalist.us/wh-national/

@tbonier @carlosodio @Nate_Cohn A question for @yghitza / @mjfrias as well as you Tom, what % of 2012 voters were 2008 voters. Like compositionally. What does your turnout score imply?

Interested in what _really_ happened in the 2022 election? Look no further, our team at @Catalist_US’s take combining our voter file, demographic modeling, large volumes of survey data, and precinct/county/CD election results is live! catalist.us/whathappened20…

Many thanks to the large team effort at @catalist_us putting this report together – along with the many reviewers who offered invaluable feedback.

Much more detail in the report, including analysis of different voting groups by race, education, gender, and more.

What Happened in the 2022 midterms? Check out our report, based on validated vote history, large scale survey data, and precinct-level, voter-file-matched election results (where currently available). Some of my favorite graphs: 🧵 twitter.com/Catalist_US/st…

More of our election analysis! Now that finalized data is released, this is our look back at the Virginia 2021 election. Check out the thread and link to report here. twitter.com/Catalist_US/st…

@MSmelkinsonPhD I guess the answer must be under reporting of cases. I didn’t realize it was that (apparently?) extreme.

@MSmelkinsonPhD Btw I would have guessed hosp rate among infected was far far lower, I guess it is if you take asymptotic into account? Pretty surprised if it truly is 50%, so I must be doing something wrong! Still my main point is the potential ambiguity of question wording in survey.

41% of dems think there is a 50/50 chance of going to the hospital for covid. Reps and inds also grossly overstate risk. Fear-mongering media and bad public health messaging caused this. Course correction desperately needed. Answer is <1%.