Yair Ghitza

222 posts

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Yair Ghitza

Yair Ghitza

@yghitza

Denver, CO Katılım Şubat 2011
621 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Carlos Odio
Carlos Odio@carlosodio·
Would urge other pollsters to follow lead of @Nate_Cohn & publish xtabs by 2020 recall - inc. the "didn't vote." Not odd to expect 20-30% of '24 voters will have sat out '20. That's a big new variable (& would be at lower shares too!)
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Jonathan Robinson
Jonathan Robinson@jon_m_rob·
Interested in what _really_ happened in the 2022 election? Look no further, our team at @Catalist_US’s take combining our voter file, demographic modeling, large volumes of survey data, and precinct/county/CD election results is live! catalist.us/whathappened20…
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Yair Ghitza
Yair Ghitza@yghitza·
Many thanks to the large team effort at @catalist_us putting this report together – along with the many reviewers who offered invaluable feedback.
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Yair Ghitza@yghitza·
Much more detail in the report, including analysis of different voting groups by race, education, gender, and more.
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Yair Ghitza@yghitza·
What Happened in the 2022 midterms? Check out our report, based on validated vote history, large scale survey data, and precinct-level, voter-file-matched election results (where currently available). Some of my favorite graphs: 🧵 twitter.com/Catalist_US/st…
Catalist_US@Catalist_US

Catalist just released our 2022 What Happened analysis, which examines how people voted in the most recent midterms based on updated state voter files. Here’s what we found: 🧵 catalist.us/whathappened20…

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Yair Ghitza
Yair Ghitza@yghitza·
@MSmelkinsonPhD I guess the answer must be under reporting of cases. I didn’t realize it was that (apparently?) extreme.
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Yair Ghitza
Yair Ghitza@yghitza·
@MSmelkinsonPhD Btw I would have guessed hosp rate among infected was far far lower, I guess it is if you take asymptotic into account? Pretty surprised if it truly is 50%, so I must be doing something wrong! Still my main point is the potential ambiguity of question wording in survey.
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Margery Smelkinson, Ph.D.
Margery Smelkinson, Ph.D.@MSmelkinsonPhD·
41% of dems think there is a 50/50 chance of going to the hospital for covid. Reps and inds also grossly overstate risk. Fear-mongering media and bad public health messaging caused this. Course correction desperately needed. Answer is <1%.
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