JokingCat77
444 posts
@spicy1812 2026 definitely looks like it's shaping up to be a massive Republican wave year. And yes, I'm already preemptively depressed.
English
@expedtadam This really does exemplify the lack of Public Transport options in Melbourne’s West hey?
English
ptmapmeb.com update:
Added the inner-middle west: Brimbank, Hobsons Bay, Maribyrnong + Point Cook too
English
@Michelle_Rent Probably a consequence of the fact that they tend to get a slightly more socially conservative vote than the Greens do
English
FYI Stafford isnt an outlier, every socialist candidate who ran in a L-NP/Lab contest at last years federal, had preferences flow stronger to the Liberals than that of the Greens candidate
English
@Leo_Puglisi6 I suppose not everyone follows the polls and/or beloved up until last Saturday that they were a viable option
Winning a by-election by a significant margin certainly signals to people who are checked out that ONP is a serious option
English
Post-Farrer/budget bounce for One Nation? They're up in the three federal polls released today (including back to a Newspoll record of 27%)
AusPoll@AusPoll6
🚨 NEW: Federal voting intention 🟥 ALP: 31% (-) 🟧 ONP: 27% (+3) 🟦 L/NP: 20% (-1) 🟩 GRN: 12% (-1) ⬛️ OTH: 10% (-1) Newspoll | 14-17 May | n=1252 | +/- 13-16 Apr
English
@kevinbonham It is interesting from a political science standpoint that the budget overall has been received so negatively despite the individual policies polling in the okay to good range
English
#Newspoll Budget:
* For economy net -25 (22-47) Second worst ever by some margin beating only 1993.
* Personal impact net -41 (11-52). Third worst behind 1993 and 2014.
English
#Newspoll ALP 31 L-NP 20 ON 27 Grn 12 Ind/other 10
My 2PP estimate for this poll 54.0 to ALP (-0.7)
vs ON 53.0 to ALP (-1.7)
English
@kevinbonham The Age article writing it up as “Labor’s Vote Plummeting” was a choice given how bouncy the polls have been as you’ve pointed out
English
Not too much should be read into primary vote movements in Resolve as the poll is quite bouncy. ALP primary this year has gone 30-32-29-32-29.
English
#ResolvePM ALP 29 L-NP 23 ON 24 Green 12 IND 7 other 5
No 2PP published
My 2PP estimate 52.6 to ALP (-1.9)
vs ON 53.3 to ALP (-2.3)
English
Greens preferences now flowing 86.7% to Labor in Stafford despite the open how to vote card.
English
@kevinbonham The fact that the report specifically labels either Shortland or Kooyong is absolutely hilarious
English
Because the BRS for Canning BS wasn't silly enough today's rumour is Tony Abbott runs for lower house seat. Those responsible please entertain me by telling me what seat he would win.
English
@electionsjoe If a generic dem is that close in a GOP internal that is supposed to make one of the candidates look good - just imagine what Talarico is actually pulling
English
Why did they poll generic Democrat. We have a candidate?
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Deep Root Analytics poll | released 5/7 US Senate Texas 2026 🟥John Cornyn 51% (incumbent) 🟦Generic Democrat 49% —— 🟦Generic Democrat 52% 🟥Ken Paxton 48% The polling memo also found that Ken Paxton has a 5-8% drag on Republican net margins in several downballot races. (Poll commissioned by pro-Cornyn super PAC)
English
@VicIndyMovement So called "Community Independent" sounding off on what other communities from a different state voted for
English
Or could the real problem be that for once some money is going to Victoria... The need for spending restraint never seems to apply north of the Murray.
Allegra Spender@spenderallegra
This is a time for spending restraint. Not pouring billions into projects where costs and timelines have blown out. Suburban Rail Loop’s poor business case has been criticized by the Vic Auditor General, the National Audit Office & a national review of transport infrastructure.
English
@jarethkennedy @NotTurnbull That is not how preference deals work
English
@NotTurnbull This is assuming no preference deals with Libs and ONP which would adjust it to 52-53% Libs.
We'll just have to wait for them to strike a deal now.
English
Labor would probably just win an easy majority on these numbers
AusPoll@AusPoll6
🚨 NEW: Victoria (state) voting intention 🟥 ALP: 25.5% (-) 🟧 ONP: 24.5% (-2) 🟦 L/NP: 24% (+2.5) 🟩 GRN: 13.5% (-) ⬜️ IND: 8.5% (-0.5) ⬛️ OTH: 4% (-) Two-party-preferred 🟥 ALP: 51% (-1) 🟦 L/NP: 49% (+1) ALP vs ONP 🟥 ALP: 53.5% (+1) 🟧 ONP: 46.5% (-1) L/NP vs ONP 🟦 L/NP: 59% (+3) 🟧 ONP: 41% (-3) Roy Morgan | 22-24 Apr | n=1707 | +/- 13-16 Feb
English
English
Interesting piece by @Leo_Puglisi6 in @crikey_news
Farrer could start the duopoly’s downfall — and blare a klaxon horn for the Liberals
"If the Liberals fall out of the top two in Farrer after preference distribution, it will not only be an 80-year first, but also a demonstration of just how disastrous the situation is for the party.
"Having held government for approximately 50 years of its 82-year existence, the Liberals now risk becoming a crossbench party in the House of Representatives with a single-digit seat count following the next election…
"Even though it might not seem obvious on the night of the by-election, we might look back, 12 months from now, and pinpoint it as the moment the duopoly began to fall."
crikey.com.au/2026/04/09/far…
English
@kevinbonham partial uComms seat poll in Kew (Vic state) reported in this article - Wilson's primary down to 36% but no indication if that includes undecideds or not. Not helping with the enduring frustration with partial poll reporting
theage.com.au/politics/victo…
English
@skep_observer I'm going to be honest with ya lad, I don't think Hillary had much to do with it
English
@EnjoyerPang The absolute numbers we will see in that seat when he retires
English
Josh Teague is the messiah when it comes to fending off challenges in Heysen.
English
@CameronCorduroy Unrelated but why had I forgotten that LARPing was an actual real legitimate hobby that people enjoy
English
@AzelfDaGirl People also seem to forgetting that Mississippi was fairly close back in 2018
English
That seems...really weak?? In 2024, Republicans outvoted Democrats 230,000 - 90,000
VoteHub@VoteHub
Mississippi U.S. Senate Primary Total Votes: 🔴 Republicans: 137,416 🔵 Democrats: 121,842 Based on where votes are outstanding, it seems that Republicans are set to outvote Democrats by about 20,000 votes in the MS primary. (votes from @nytimes)
English