Zach Krivine, CFA

And it would appear about $3 billion in tariff refunds have already been paid.

Every time i'm out, he pulls me back in

@ericwallerstein Seems like Brad's point wasn't that a swap is inappropriate, just that the ESF shouldn't be the mechanism. Could be wrong but if it's through FIMA, I'd think USD for UST wouldn't make a peg any more credible. Either you've got the backing ammo or you don't

The US should offer swap lines to any state which pegs their currency to the dollar. These swap lines should be hosted at the Fed. Brad and Stephen make a cogent argument. I don’t disagree with their analysis. I do disagree with limiting swaps to there heretofore use case. Dollar dominance emerged in large part from offshore banks’ creation of eurodollars. Hegemony and exceptional economic performance helped, of course. But the US has already crossed the rubicon of hard-power dollar dominance and should lean into it, providing carrots for dollar usage. Because pegging to the dollar erodes monetary autonomy, the Fed should provide a backstop even if reserves are abundant (as is the case with the UAE). It’s not about the UAE as much as it’s about setting a precedent. By providing countries with high inflation (or central banks that lack credibility) an avenue to stable prices and FX—but mitigating the risk of speculator attacks upfront—more states are likely to use the dollar for reserves and invoicing. For countries lacking reserves (eg, not the UAE) an IMF-style program to restore exports and rebuild tradeable sectors could be constructed with DFC, EXIM, etc. There’s no shortage of high priority supply chain security initiatives, and every allied state has a role to play.

@ericwallerstein Let a boy poast !

@zkriv96 awaiting the inaugural x article or substack post from mr cfa. bless us with your knowledge

There’s a narrative getting louder that China is the winner from this conflict as nations are now more incentivized to pursue renewables + China sells the cheapest clean tech. Can at least see that being the case for nations that can’t afford SPRs

Not crazy. A) one of these sets of goods received broad tariff exemptions while the other (mostly) did not and B) we should remember that the front loading of imports in 1Q25 is going to distort any yoy number BUT still a great viz

@ericwallerstein Chart on US energy exports is money. Can we get much higher 🎶

Excellent speech by Alan M Taylor on the connections between economic history and macro policy making. Would pair well with Eichengreen’s EHA presidential speech. bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2026/ap…

After 30 years of living in NYC, I finally made it to Flushing last week for Chinese food, and am now fully 7 train-pilled. Everyone should go if you haven’t !

YESSIR

@TheStalwart I remember walking past that place omw to PS59 for elementary school. It was really great to see a diner manage to stay open through the years while a lot of others closed.. rip

completely shellshocked about this

Trump's plan for the end of the war in Gaza Gaza will be a deradicalized terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its neighbors. Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered more than enough. If both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment, will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met for the complete staged withdrawal. Within 72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and deceased, will be returned. Once all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus 1700 Gazans who were detained after October 7th 2023, including all women and children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans. Once all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries. Upon acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included in the January 19, 2025, agreement regarding humanitarian aid, including rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads. Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party. Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under the January 19, 2025 agreement. Gaza will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the “Board of Peace,” which will be headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads of State to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform program, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump’s peace plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is conducive to attracting investment. A Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energize Gaza will be created by convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful investment proposals and exciting development ideas have been crafted by well-meaning international groups, and will be considered to synthesize the security and governance frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments that will create jobs, opportunity, and hope for future Gaza. A special economic zone will be established with preferred tariff and access rates to be negotiated with participating countries. No one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza. Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors. New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbors. A guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas, and the factions, comply with their obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat to its neighbors or its people. The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help secure border areas, along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is critical to prevent munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction mechanism will be agreed upon by the parties. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the Unites States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure from any resurgent terror threat. In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF to the ISF. An interfaith dialogue process will be established based on the values of tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived from peace. While Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform program is faithfully carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people. The United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.

When it was reported in May that ECB officials were planning for US withholding USD swap lines, it suggested next geoeconomic chapter could be weaponizing lender of last resort status. Other side of that coin is preferential access to USD funding if you’re ideologically aligned

@joshualipsky I interpreted it potentially serving as the admin’s legal argument that there is precedent under IEEPA for tariff imposition

This clip is the first time I’ve heard the admin explicitly say tariffs can be used like a financial sanction.

At least no one is using the word polycrisis any more.

I think “history does sometimes repeat itself, in fact” literature is my favorite genre. Polanyi in The Great Transformation on agricultural protectionism in the interwar period:

“In practice, (SLR reform and the GENIUS Act) may be driven at least in part by the need to finance an unsustainable debt trajectory fueled by an expansionary fiscal policy stance at this juncture of the economic cycle.”

@Jlrube So the turnout among young voters went from what, a 6 sigma to 3 sigma ? Still remarkable

Turns out the data WAS wrong. You've got to be fucking kidding me.

@ericwallerstein We are in the goodest hands 🙌

ft. the advisor to the advisor to the advisor

Trump's Russia policy is at a dead end. Putin shows no interest peace. Congress is growing impatient—and there's a tool available that could shift Putin's calculus: oil sanctions. In @ForeignAffairs, I explain how (🧵): foreignaffairs.com/russia/putins-…