Zachary Werrell, Esq.

Me and my wife

@BradKutner @cToddGilbert @vahousegop Knows it’s wrong, attempting to deflect and refuse to take responsibility.

"If @cToddGilbert had won the majority in 2020, @vahousegop would not have approved the bipartisan commission... GOP legislators are going to continue gerrymandering because they think Dem legs wont." - Del. Simon #VALeg

@JDJD2814 @TeamZissou @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe If this is exactly what happened in the 2025 elections, why is turnout so much higher in the rural areas COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME IN 2025. I don’t think you understand what the data is measuring at all.

@TeamZissou @zkwerrell @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe because expanded voting sites and hours aren’t available yet in a lot of bluer locations. this is EXACTLY what happened in the 2025 elections

Virginia EV Partisanship Update: Compared to yesterday, the Virginia early vote has become 0.2% redder. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states/v…

@RandySF45 @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe Yeah, of course. I’m suggesting a way to get an actual read of the situation.

@zkwerrell @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe 10% in Fairfax is still more than 100% of Dickinson.

@DiehardOsfan55 @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe Wonderful, insightful analysis and argument.

@zkwerrell @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe See ya on April 21 pal

Okay so your actual methodology is even worse than just using L2 data, and suffers from a major flaw due to a wild assumption… You presume that the partisan vote share is identical to the 2025 LG partisanship. You assume that the partisan ratio of people voting in this special is the same as it was last year. There is absolutely no justification for this. You can clearly see that there is at least some, if not a massive turnout differential just by looking at the map. To assume that turnout is proportionately equal in every precinct to 2025 is nonsense. You have been doing some regressions by precinct, a very basic improvement to your model (that would be crude, but at least significantly better than this) would be to apply the coefficient found across precincts to vote share within precincts. A more granular approach would be to derive this coefficient within counties, and apply it to just the precincts in that county. (This too makes a potentially problematic assumption, that whatever is driving differential turnout at a precinct level maps onto individual voting behavior… however, at least you’d be controlling for SOMETHING that clearly is driving the observed difference in turnout behavior). I don’t have the raw data, but if you’d share, I’d gladly do the math and give you the outputs. (And provide the code/math/etc., and I wouldn’t even ask for attribution!) But presenting this as a “model” is not a good look, because literally all this shows is “what if 2025 was happening again but with some marginal tweaks.” I like your work (and a model nerd myself) and so I’m offering this as constructive feedback.

@ChazNuttycombe @StateNavigate My mistake! For some reason I thought I read that you were elsewhere. Let me pick apart your actual methodology then 😉

@zkwerrell @StateNavigate We are not using L2 data. Please read the methodology.

So why is that not being seen in the most active in places like Cville and Albemarle, a relatively large blue dot in a Red Sea, that stands to get a D rep, but is being seen in far southwest Virginia? The thesis flies in the face of the data, and strains credulity for these and other reasons.

@zkwerrell @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe Rural Dems are very white and resist-Libby in Virginia, so not totally out of the question.

@notanavgburner @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe No, it’s not. I just looked at the data from 2025. It was 55.5-38, with 6.3 unknown, or 59.3-40.7 h2h… vs 59.8-40.2 for this special.

@zkwerrell @StateNavigate @ChazNuttycombe it's redder than 2025 EV though, not bluer

Give it a break. This is obviously incorrect, and is being done to suppress No votes and encourage Yes ones. Look at where the early vote is up and where it’s down, it is almost literally mathematically impossible that No is doing worse than Sears. You’re making a big leap with the L2 data, and need to make that data make sense in light of turnout and precinct data.

Wait the you mean to tell me the “no” campaign is on par to do WORSE THEN Winsome Sears?!

@royermattw It absolutely did not get upheld in the courts. The court simply said the question was not ripe yet. You clearly are not a lawyer and have no clue what you’re talking about on the law either. You are very arrogant too, and ignorant to boot. Amazing.

@zkwerrell Upheld in the courts and got printed on the ballot so

Spotted in Sussex County, VA paid for by former Stony Creek Town council member Chester Carter. Using the current map of the Virginia Congressional Districts, but only making CD 1 Blue? Y'all think you're so clever. Don't be fooled. VOTE YES.

@SenLouiseLucas @georgeallenva Obviously you are not going to have a proper debate using your spoken words, because you’re a crude, foul-mouthed hag incapable of articulating even a modestly complex thought coherently.

I’ve heard Governor @georgeallenva would like to have a debate on redistricting and I agree- so I am challenging him to a 21st century meme debate where we can present our case on redistricting. We can go back and forth as much as he wants leading up to April 21st!

@Htorst12m27d2 Okay that’s enough Japanese twitter for me for today

このでっぷりと前に突き出した、 贅肉たっぷりのお腹を掴んで揺らしたい。 そしてもっと太らせて、この今着ている服がはち切れんばかりにしてあげたい。 それはもう中の肌が透けて見えるくらいに。

@chirno_helmet Women and progressives

バドワイザーやバーボンやカリフォルニアワインに対するアメリカ人の情熱を見ると、なぜこの国は禁酒法なんて馬鹿な法律を制定したんだと思える。もちろん成立の過程やその後も知ってるんだけどさ。

@KulasanM You want to get a reverse offset smoker. Way easier to keep at the same temperature over long periods of time.

背中を押してくれたアメリカBBQ兄貴たち、日本で買えるこれで大丈夫かい？ Royal Gourmet CC1830SC チャコールグリル オフセットスモーカー カバー付き 810平方インチ ブラック アウトドア キャンプ amzn.asia/d/02rVQvL6 #Amazon

@ProsecutorsPod @MichaelCal3302 They would like Jackson’s for its political implications, not for the actual legal analysis. Surely you can acknowledge that?

@MichaelCal3302 If you polled left leaning law students, which opinion do you think they'd support? Kagan's? Or Jackson's?

Personally I think people are completely misreading Jackson. She's not dumb; she's uninterested in following legal principles she doesn't agree with. She's not unlike Scalia in the early days, and I think the future of liberal jurisprudence is much more likely to look like her than Kagan.

She doesn’t offer coherent opinions, whether between cases, or even in the same opinion. Scalia eventually won out by meticulously applying a brilliant, (almost) novel analytical legal theory, that has proven to be qualitatively better than the competition. KBJ, meanwhile, just openly advocates for her political position, even having gone as far as calling legal analysis “mind-numbing” in a decision. That said, I do think future liberal justices will adopt her general style—namely only applying principles and law when they suits their political ends, and just making it up when they don’t.

@USA_Polling Judge’s job is to apply the law, not do what their “soul” tells them. Changing the law is the role of the legislature, not the court. You seem to lack basic knowledge of government, which is surprising given how much you post about politics.

Thank you Ketanji for being the only justice with a soul apparently

@BobbyScott4VA3 No

With a little more than three weeks left to vote for the Redistricting Referendum, Democratic elected officials from Southside Hampton Roads have a message for Virginians: Don’t Guess, Vote YES on the Constitutional Amendment! #VoteYesVa