Zachary Werrell, Esq.

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Zachary Werrell, Esq.

Zachary Werrell, Esq.

@zkwerrell

Nicole’s Husband. Attorney (VA & TX), Political Strategist, Author, Musician, History Buff, 1923 Model T Driver.

Katılım Kasım 2022
122 Takip Edilen667 Takipçiler
BK
BK@BradKutner·
"If @cToddGilbert had won the majority in 2020, @vahousegop would not have approved the bipartisan commission... GOP legislators are going to continue gerrymandering because they think Dem legs wont." - Del. Simon #VALeg
BK tweet media
BK@BradKutner

So @BrianRCannon and Del Marcus Simon are having a debate on the #redistricting amendment at 430 today via @williamandmary #valeg Arguably a fight *years* in the making if you’re nerdy enough. You can sign up to watch 👉 cwm.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
Okay so your actual methodology is even worse than just using L2 data, and suffers from a major flaw due to a wild assumption… You presume that the partisan vote share is identical to the 2025 LG partisanship. You assume that the partisan ratio of people voting in this special is the same as it was last year. There is absolutely no justification for this. You can clearly see that there is at least some, if not a massive turnout differential just by looking at the map. To assume that turnout is proportionately equal in every precinct to 2025 is nonsense. You have been doing some regressions by precinct, a very basic improvement to your model (that would be crude, but at least significantly better than this) would be to apply the coefficient found across precincts to vote share within precincts. A more granular approach would be to derive this coefficient within counties, and apply it to just the precincts in that county. (This too makes a potentially problematic assumption, that whatever is driving differential turnout at a precinct level maps onto individual voting behavior… however, at least you’d be controlling for SOMETHING that clearly is driving the observed difference in turnout behavior). I don’t have the raw data, but if you’d share, I’d gladly do the math and give you the outputs. (And provide the code/math/etc., and I wouldn’t even ask for attribution!) But presenting this as a “model” is not a good look, because literally all this shows is “what if 2025 was happening again but with some marginal tweaks.” I like your work (and a model nerd myself) and so I’m offering this as constructive feedback.
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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
So why is that not being seen in the most active in places like Cville and Albemarle, a relatively large blue dot in a Red Sea, that stands to get a D rep, but is being seen in far southwest Virginia? The thesis flies in the face of the data, and strains credulity for these and other reasons.
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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
Give it a break. This is obviously incorrect, and is being done to suppress No votes and encourage Yes ones. Look at where the early vote is up and where it’s down, it is almost literally mathematically impossible that No is doing worse than Sears. You’re making a big leap with the L2 data, and need to make that data make sense in light of turnout and precinct data.
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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
@royermattw It absolutely did not get upheld in the courts. The court simply said the question was not ripe yet. You clearly are not a lawyer and have no clue what you’re talking about on the law either. You are very arrogant too, and ignorant to boot. Amazing.
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Matt Royer
Matt Royer@royermattw·
@zkwerrell Upheld in the courts and got printed on the ballot so
GIF
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Matt Royer
Matt Royer@royermattw·
Spotted in Sussex County, VA paid for by former Stony Creek Town council member Chester Carter. Using the current map of the Virginia Congressional Districts, but only making CD 1 Blue? Y'all think you're so clever. Don't be fooled. VOTE YES.
Matt Royer tweet media
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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
@SenLouiseLucas @georgeallenva Obviously you are not going to have a proper debate using your spoken words, because you’re a crude, foul-mouthed hag incapable of articulating even a modestly complex thought coherently.
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L. Louise Lucas
L. Louise Lucas@SenLouiseLucas·
I’ve heard Governor @georgeallenva would like to have a debate on redistricting and I agree- so I am challenging him to a 21st century meme debate where we can present our case on redistricting. We can go back and forth as much as he wants leading up to April 21st!
L. Louise Lucas tweet media
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Erio@max(エリオ@マックス)
このでっぷりと前に突き出した、 贅肉たっぷりのお腹を掴んで揺らしたい。 そしてもっと太らせて、この今着ている服がはち切れんばかりにしてあげたい。 それはもう中の肌が透けて見えるくらいに。
Erio@max(エリオ@マックス) tweet mediaErio@max(エリオ@マックス) tweet mediaErio@max(エリオ@マックス) tweet mediaErio@max(エリオ@マックス) tweet media
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ちるへる
ちるへる@chirno_helmet·
バドワイザーやバーボンやカリフォルニアワインに対するアメリカ人の情熱を見ると、なぜこの国は禁酒法なんて馬鹿な法律を制定したんだと思える。もちろん成立の過程やその後も知ってるんだけどさ。
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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
@KulasanM You want to get a reverse offset smoker. Way easier to keep at the same temperature over long periods of time.
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ProsecutorsPodcast
ProsecutorsPodcast@ProsecutorsPod·
@MichaelCal3302 If you polled left leaning law students, which opinion do you think they'd support? Kagan's? Or Jackson's?
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ProsecutorsPodcast
ProsecutorsPodcast@ProsecutorsPod·
Personally I think people are completely misreading Jackson. She's not dumb; she's uninterested in following legal principles she doesn't agree with. She's not unlike Scalia in the early days, and I think the future of liberal jurisprudence is much more likely to look like her than Kagan.
Legal Phil@Legal_Fil

I’m trying to think of the last justice whose elicited so many “I can’t believe I have to explain this to you” reactions from his or her own side.

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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
She doesn’t offer coherent opinions, whether between cases, or even in the same opinion. Scalia eventually won out by meticulously applying a brilliant, (almost) novel analytical legal theory, that has proven to be qualitatively better than the competition. KBJ, meanwhile, just openly advocates for her political position, even having gone as far as calling legal analysis “mind-numbing” in a decision. That said, I do think future liberal justices will adopt her general style—namely only applying principles and law when they suits their political ends, and just making it up when they don’t.
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Zachary Werrell, Esq.
Zachary Werrell, Esq.@zkwerrell·
@USA_Polling Judge’s job is to apply the law, not do what their “soul” tells them. Changing the law is the role of the legislature, not the court. You seem to lack basic knowledge of government, which is surprising given how much you post about politics.
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Bobby Scott
Bobby Scott@BobbyScott4VA3·
With a little more than three weeks left to vote for the Redistricting Referendum, Democratic elected officials from Southside Hampton Roads have a message for Virginians: Don’t Guess, Vote YES on the Constitutional Amendment! #VoteYesVa
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