Alex Pehar

I *Used* to be a huge Palantir $PLTR Bull. Anyone who knows me can corroborate. I made a Youtube video in 2023 about how Palantir would change the world (<$14/share). I tried to start a "Palantir development program" at ASU while I was enrolled (Before Palantir University existed). I've spoken to a few ex-Palantirians so I could try to network myself a job there. Recent developments (internal and external), valuation, and honestly @michaeljburry's Substack have shifted my sentiment from "Palantir is a MUST OWN" to "Could be a worthwhile investment but not worth the risk/return profile". OpenAI Frontier is a very alarming development, and unearths an unfavorable competitive scenario for Palantir going forward.

This is the transition rate, not the real rate. The current real rate is 9.6%. This implies 90 day delinquencies are accelerating though.

In my 40+ years of being an economist, I have never seen the Fed more overtly political. Nor have I seen a battle like this errupt between the Fed and Whitehouse. The Fed has always had an unwritten rule about commenting on fiscal policy issues. It quietly supported TARP. It ignored the Obama tax hikes, and the massive Biden deficits. It ignored millions of illegal immigrants crossing the border. It ignored hundreds of billions in spending and subsidies being shifted toward solar and wind, which are less productive than fossil fuels. It also monetized that spending with Quantitative Easing. It cut rates before the 2024 election (which it has always tried to avoid). Now some on the Fed are saying they want to raise rates due to fears of inflation even though inflation was higher in 2024 when it cut rates. And the Fed can’t shut up about tariffs. It is patently obvious that the Fed has decided to play politics. They will argue that Trump started it. But QE actually started it. The Fed funded big growth in government and deficits. For Kashkari to blame Hassett for undermining Fed independence is laughable. No one should know the names of the people on the Fed…but these people are trying to be controversial. They want to be political. The Fed’s balance sheet must be trimmed…along with many thousands of Fed staff. It is absolutely untrue that the world is safer because of the massive increase in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed is full of itself. I want a smaller, humble, quiet and much less active Fed.

A partnership between @Upstart and @Figure would create a legitimate duopoly.

Stanley Druckenmiller said what many think about Jerome Powell but won’t say out loud. “The Fed’s job is to avoid big mistakes — like the massive inflation we just had. Powell is obsessed with engineering a soft landing and protecting his legacy. But the only reason we even need a landing is because they let inflation run from 2% to 9%. This Fed shows again and again that they think changing their mind means losing credibility.” Powell didn’t save the economy. He helped create the mess.

COMMANDER: We’re fighting for freedom. And part of that freedom… is the freedom to retire with dignity. So we’re going to start accounts called 401(k)s. SOLDIER 1: What’s a 401(k)? COMMANDER: It’s a retirement account. You put money in, it grows tax-free, you take it out when you’re old. SOLDIER 2: So I don’t pay taxes on it? COMMANDER: Well, you pay taxes later. When you withdraw. SOLDIER 2: So it’s not tax-free. COMMANDER: It’s…tax-deferred. SOLDIER 2: What’s the difference? COMMANDER: You pay taxes later instead of now. SOLDIER 1: What if I want to pay taxes now? COMMANDER: Then you do a Roth 401(k). SOLDIER 3: What’s a Roth? COMMANDER: You pay taxes now, and it grows tax-free. SOLDIER 2: That’s what I thought the first one was. COMMANDER: No, the first one you pay taxes later. SOLDIER 1: Which one’s better? COMMANDER: Depends on your tax bracket in retirement. SOLDIER 1: …How would I…know that? COMMANDER: You don’t. You just guess. ⸻ SOLDIER 4: What if I don’t have a 401(k) through my employer? COMMANDER: Then you open an IRA. SOLDIER 4: What’s the difference? COMMANDER: One’s through your job, one’s on your own. SOLDIER 4: Can I have both? COMMANDER: Yes. SOLDIER 4: Should I? COMMANDER: Maybe. SOLDIER 3: Can I do a Roth IRA? COMMANDER: Only if you make under a certain amount. SOLDIER 3: What’s the limit? COMMANDER: Changes every year. SOLDIER 2: What if I make too much? COMMANDER: Then you do a backdoor Roth by putting it in a Traditonal first. SOLDIER 2: …Is that legal? COMMANDER: Surprisingly, yes. SOLDIER 1: What’s a backdoor Roth? COMMANDER: You contribute to a traditional IRA, then convert it to a Roth…but watch out for “pro rata”. SOLDIER 1: Why wouldn’t I just contribute to the Roth directly? COMMANDER: Because you make too much money. SOLDIER 1: But this way I can? COMMANDER: Yes. SOLDIER 1: That feels like a loophole. COMMANDER: It is. But the IRS is cool with it. ⸻ SOLDIER 5: I just changed battalions. What do I do with my old 401(k)? COMMANDER: You roll it over. SOLDIER 5: Into what? COMMANDER: An IRA. Or your new 401(k). Depends. SOLDIER 5: On what? COMMANDER: The funds. The fees. Whether your new plan accepts rollovers. SOLDIER 5: What if I just take the money out? COMMANDER: You’ll pay taxes plus a 10% penalty. SOLDIER 5: What if I’m 59? COMMANDER: Penalty. SOLDIER 5: 59 and a half? COMMANDER: No penalty. SOLDIER 5: …The half matters? COMMANDER: The half matters. ⸻ SOLDIER 3: What’s a mega backdoor Roth? COMMANDER: Okay. So. Your 401(k) has a limit of how much you can contribute. SOLDIER 3: Right. COMMANDER: But the total limit including employer contributions is higher. SOLDIER 3: Okay… COMMANDER: So if your plan allows ~after-tax~ contributions, you can put in more, then convert that to Roth. SOLDIER 3: Does my plan allow that? COMMANDER: I don’t know. You have to ask Betsy. SOLDIER 3: Will Betsy know? COMMANDER: Probably not. ⸻ SOLDIER 2: Can I deduct my IRA contribution on my taxes? COMMANDER: Are you covered by a retirement plan at work? SOLDIER 2: Yes. COMMANDER: Then only if you make under a certain amount per year. SOLDIER 2: What’s the amount? COMMANDER: Depends if you’re married. SOLDIER 2: What if my wife has a plan but I don’t? COMMANDER: Different limit. SOLDIER 2: What if neither of us has a plan? COMMANDER: Full deduction. SOLDIER 2: So it’s better to not have a 401(k)? COMMANDER: No… ⸻ SOLDIER 1: Can I just keep my money in a sock? COMMANDER: You could. But inflation will slowly destroy it. SOLDIER 1: What’s inflation? COMMANDER: (sighs)…

**AUTOPILOT UPDATE** Swapped $WELL --> $CBRE - better real estate play going forward. Sold $CW and $NET -- high relative valuations & fwd p/e's respectively (40x & 163x) Added more $UPST, $LTH, and $FSLR as they are all attractively priced and have charts that look ready for appreciation. I see $UPST as one of the biggest gainers in 2026 externally from Fed rate policy and macroeconomic tailwinds while internally being an AI company that is a leader (In my opinion) in its respective domain. Upstart historically has been a cyclical equity, and while I think that dynamic is slowly changing, the "cycle" is just beginning for them. For reference, I look at their UMI, which currently sits at 1.5, meaning the macroenvironment is essentially 50% "tougher" than historical norms. As the UMI approaches 1, I expect an immense increase in revenue and earnings to follow, setting aside product development, offloading R&D loans, and other progress they make as a company. UMI linked here: upstart.com/umi/

*AUTOPILOT TRADING ALERT* SETTING UP POSITIONS FOR 2026 In 2026 I am focusing on companies that trade at prices lower than a conservative "Fair Value" (Multiple valuation sources), and/or have underpriced growth. Many companies got beaten up in 2025 and trade at attractive P/E and fwd P/E multiples. In 2025 most of the Mag 7 actually underperformed the S&P, and I think the "Lag 7" will continue to persist in 2026. There are countless small/mid-cap companies that trade at lower fwd P/Es than MSFT's ~30x for instance. In 2026 I see a "recomposition" of the S&P 500, with breadth increasing and concentration decreasing. I also see it as an opportune time to bet heavy on high conviction positions. Location wise I think US is the place to be. Trades below: Sold MSFT - 30x F/PE at $3.5T = lag 7 continuing. Swapped BSX with MOH. Michael Burry substack rec. Healthcare extremely thin other than LLY. Sold ETR - Utilities lag in 2026. IBKR instead. More UPST, WPM, & FSLR; my highest conviction companies atm.

There’s a waitlist of 400 investors looking to launch their own strategies, but don’t take our word for it

Greatest book ever written in my opinion

Autopilot Trade update (12/16/2025) Closed $BRK.B position. Trimmed $AVGO, $LLY, $MSFT Introduced $MU Added to $UPST, $LTH, $ARCB Leaning more towards more value-focused companies. This includes fair value as well as forward looking price targets. Berkshire was slightly overpriced, as well as a 3/5 TA score. Broadcom, Eli Lilly, and Microsoft trade at high forward and regular P/E multiples at Mega Capitalizations. I think the earnings growth rates of these companies will be seen as increasingly difficult to achieve -- and thus will suffer multiple compression. Micron ticks all of our boxes: 4/5 Technical attribute score on Nasdaq Dorsey Wright, 2 out of 497 on the relative strength large cap matrix, and trading at a 30x PE and 14x Forward PE. Earnings tomorrow after the bell and I would rather be in than out beforehand. Added to Upstart, Lifetime, and Arcbest because they trade at fair valuations, and the combination of various macroeconomic, administrative, and monetary tailwinds looking forward will have favorable impacts for earnings growth in 2026+. These are my "reversal" plays.

This blows my mind. I don't think people understand that @joinautopilot will revolutionize how people invest.

@PauloGoeb Thank you @PauloGoeb

@Alex_Optima ☝️ gets it

Watched the entirety of Block's $XYZ investor day today. I think that it will become the pre-eminent fintech company in America. When I say fintech, I mean they will enable access to capital to everyone everywhere all the time. They will become THE financial platform for individuals and businesses. One thing that stood out to me was @jack saying he wanted to automate the entire company. I believe that is possible and I believe they will essentially do that—only a matter of how quickly. I believe they are focusing on the one metric that matters: iteration cycle times. The companies that enable themselves using AI will drastically cut down iteration times, allowing them to ship faster, better, and cheaper than competitors. This growth will only compound over time, and the companies that get started early will become magnitudes more powerful than their peers. I believe Block is nonpareil when it comes to reducing iteration cycles as an entire organization across all departments in their vertical. I am talking marketing, sales, operations, finance, etc. In my opinion, Block is one of the most exciting companies in the world. Neighborhoods is also a moat in the making.

@Chris_Orlob Now you have to engineer what actions it takes to get 3 opps per week and that will be your daily input.

Want $250k? Stop hoping. Start engineering. Here's the math: • $200k OTE = $100k base + $100k variable • $800k quota = 12.5% commission rate • Need $1.2M ARR for $250k income • $40k deals = 30 closes needed • 20% close rate = 150 opps required That's 3 new opps per week. Every week. Don't start your weekend until you find them.

Personally don't think .08% is too high at all, but I will say that target date funds have dramatically underperformed for the past 15 years+, mostly due to the high allocation to international stocks and some fixed-income. That being said, target-date funds are designed for someone to literally forget about them for 40 years and still be ~okay.

I would never invest in target date retirement funds. Way too conservative. Example - Vanguard Retirement 2070 (in 45 years) has 8.20% of holdings in bonds. I don't think that's necessary. And the expense ratio of 0.08% is relatively high (compared to VTI, VOO, BND, etc)

I would highly advise those interested in Fed rate discussions to read this speech by @SteveMiran: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…