Scott Gerlt

@ColleenLuvsCorn 😆

@GerltScott I have Josh Allen jersey just for you Scott!

L F G!!!!!!!!!!! 💙🤍❤️🦬

@SethMeyerMU I worked with @SethMeyerMU at @FAPRI_MU, twice at the same time.

Overheard DC quote of the day “ (famous politician) and I worked together at (organization) just not at the same time….

I'm very excited to release work that @ASA_Soybeans has done with @NationalCorn on the effects of Chinese tariffs on U.S. corn and soy. If China enforced current tariffs, U.S. soy prices would fall by $.60 per bushel and corn prices would fall by $0.08. soygrowers.com/news-releases/…

EPA largely set obligations based on assumptions about feedstock use. Consumption of FOG (which includes UCO and tallow) is on pace to far exceed EPA's assumptions this year. This change pushes out soybean oil at the margin. Read more: soygrowers.com/news-releases/… #ussoy #agpolicy

@ScottIrwinUI I would also argue this is going to affect investments well before 2027. Winter canola varieties are being developed. Crush plant investors also have to look at this well before 2027.

1. A couple comments on the soybean oil and canola cap in CARB. Existing firms and pathways are grandfathered in through 2027. So, there you should not be much if any impact for almost the next three and half years. In addition, there is a limit to the growth of soybean oil and canola oil in the CA LCFS anyway as RD penetration has reached 75%. It may well be 100% by 2028.

@ScottIrwinUI Traceability standards for ag feedstocks now start in 2026. This will add compliance costs for ag feedstocks and limit the fungability of supply chains.

@ScottIrwinUI @scianalysis Soy+canola has about a 30% share in CA currently

2. If one assumes 100% RD penetration by 2028 (which @scianalysis says is likely on the way), then one could back out how much of a volume loss might happen in 2028 when the cap is instituted. I would assume that the current market share for soybean oil and canola feedstocks is the same as where it has been recently. Perhaps I can persuade @scianalysis to do that quick calculation for us, as I know he has all the relevant data at his fingertips. My recollection is that soybean oil feedstock market share into LCFS is 20-25%. But that is just a guess. I also wonder whether the cap is for combined market share for soybean oil and canola oil or each separately? I read it as combined 20% cap but I have not read the original text.

Check out the latest Economist's Angle soygrowers.com/news-releases/… on the 40B and 45Z biofuel credits. Going from the 40B to 45Z likely drops credits by ~$1 per gal of soy #SAF. Estimates indicate #soy renewable diesel would get $.30 per gal of 45Z credits. #oatt #agpolicy #ussoy

@Mattherman09 @BiofuelsSara Illinois looks beautiful!

The April NOPA Report was bearish to soybean markets today. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 166 million bushels in April- down from 196.4 million in March, 173.2 million last April and an average trade estimate of 183.1. million bushels.

I'm excited to announce that the ASA econ is growing. We are looking for an economist who understands ag and can communicate with diverse audiences. The position will work on exciting and challenging issues. Apply here: app.trinethire.com/companies/1348…

Feedstock imports exceeded EPA's forecast by about 550 mil. renewable diesel equivalent gallons in 2023. This was partly driven by rerouted used cooking oil trade after the EU started investigating fraud allegations and by the U.S. UCO premium. Read more soygrowers.com/news-releases/…

@SusanNOBULL Do you have to cut the pieces yourself, too?

~buys desk in a box~ ~opens instructions~ ~immediately regrets buying a desk in a box~

@ASA_Soybeans surveyed growers to learn how many would comply with the @EPA's Herbicide Strategy proposal. 99% of respondents would incur compliance obligations that only 21% would meet today before considering any application reductions. soygrowers.com/news-releases/…

@BrianWillott @ASA_Soybeans @gackle Is that solution you know from experience?

@GerltScott @ASA_Soybeans @gackle If it's a long wait, you can hang a hammock under the truck and nap.

When you are in Matto Grosso, #Brazil during the #soybean harvest and an accident blocks the highway for miles, everyone gets out and hangs out on the road. American tourists are quite the attraction. @gackle

I have the amazing opportunity to travel with @USSEC this week to tour the soybean industry in #brazil. Here four combines are harvesting #soy while one high speed planter is seeding cotton in the same field in Matto Grosso.

@BrianWillott @ASA_Soybeans @gackle Fortunately it resolved sooner than expected.

The #WASDE increasing the 2023/24 soybean yield underscores how genetics have really improved crop resiliency. Even with tough growing conditions and poor conditions ratings, the U.S. still pulled off an average #soybean yield of 50.6 bushels per acre.