
AdventitiousDrummer
969 posts

AdventitiousDrummer
@Maxonation
Follower ✞, Investor, Drummer & Software Dev Grid Scale storage $EOSE - Next Gen Batteries $ENVX
Entrou em Ağustos 2013
112 Seguindo98 Seguidores

@FreemyerGreg @OBGInvestments @TeslaJLP Is there any way it could be 1.9M worth of material being reported (COGS) and not ASP worth? If that was the case, I think that would be a lot more than 10 cubes
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@OBGInvestments @TeslaJLP How do you determine that it is more than $1.9mm (10 cubes) for 2025?
I've seen hypothesis. I've even made some.
But nothing is showing up in the quarterly filings.
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Honest question / food for thought
It sounds like most of the Q4 issues are behind them. But revenues are relatively flat between Q1 and Q4. why is that? Either something else happened or they are producing well under nameplate capacity - maybe lumpy orders…. Maybe they are using capacity to replace older cubes not quite functioning to spec $EOSE
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@Dolphins19845 Let's see where we end the day. I think there's a reasonable chance there is more in the tank with this rally.
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@charlesland123 @in_retrotech While there is a chance of this, it was also mentioned having proper delivery windows to customers.
Could be a limiting factor this Q or even the next couple.
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@in_retrotech Yes. I’m wondering if Turtle Creek is stuck at $60 million because of its inefficiency.
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@x_times_1 It's just a watch for me currently. Haven't dug into the business yet.
TA wise, the bounce not getting below $3.86 is a step in the right direction but I still have a few warning flags.
I'm probably a nibbler (without research) if we retest $3.30
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@GrindeOptions He was doing great for the first 3-6 weeks and then literally became the monster that he campaigned on removing from our government.
Since then, he's been nothing but a disappointment and ALMOST the antithesis of who he said he was. Not quite, but very close.
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@GrindeOptions Well he certainly hasn’t been a good one! Basically ended up being the antithesis of the promises he made on the campaign trail!
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@Bleacherbum @eenLien Probably! Don’t want those things to go bad out in the field! The strictest and most rigorous of testing standards must be met.
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@eenLien I wonder if we will go into testing for a year or two with samples ;)
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$ENVX 🚁 We are liking SiFly again


Lien 🍾🔋🤷♀️🪫🧨@eenLien
1/2 $ENVX 🕹️ SiFly : "A new drone company based in California has exploded out of stealth mode with incredible claims about its first product, saying it'll fly 4X longer, 10X further, 10X quieter and carry 5X more payload than leading competitors – while competing with China on cost." Contrary to what is said in the comments, these drones are "fully electric and autonomous" (see sifly.co), which implies that advanced battery technology is used. newatlas.com/drones/sifly-q…
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@JordanSolace @nav7634 This is how I'm thinking about it. Only hope we can overshoot the other way again later this year.
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@nav7634 We overshoot to the downside.. just like one could argue we overshot ⬆️
FV is probably 7-9
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@GrindeOptions Never was a 30-06 bullet at all. To many of us, this is fairly obvious.
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@Dolphins19845 Oh, yeah. Forgot about that. Interesting confluence though with a few other things.
03 July '23 weekly candle is one I've had mapped for a bit that closed $4.42 as well. This whole range as been painted through pretty well over the last 4 years, so it could use lot of things
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@Bullstkpicks @SpearfishingCap @bert_gilfoyle This is where I’m at too. Of course I want to add to my longer dated call positions, but since I also didn’t cash out a large position near the top, I’m looking to catch a “small” run back towards $8-$9 in the medium term and ideally would do it with a cheaper buy-in.
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Fair but if you buy 2028 bullish call spreads you don’t need to time the bottom. On a Jan 2028 7/30 or 7/35 the risk is way more on missing the upside. If there is an Iran deal and an order announced or something none of us predict missing the potential 3-4 quick upside is a way bigger risk than waiting one month and maybe one of $1 downside. Just my opinion I clearly have no crystal ball but I made the same trade as @bert_gilfoyle last year on the July 2026 $5 and $7 calls and am now in bullish Jan 2027 but mainly Jan 2028 bullish call spreads
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$EOSE
Last June, when sentiment was in the rubbish bin, I bought $7.50 Jan 2026 call options in size, which literally changed my life. 1500% returns in less than 6 months.
There was lots of liquidity to cash in on those. In fact, the market gave us at least 3 different opportunities between October and January to sell when the SP was above $18.
Now, the company is in a much more solid position. Huge cash position. A new product and new facility. Going concern language is gone. But, conversely, sentiment is arguably even worse, and for not entirely logical reasons. It's also compounded from risk off macros.
Shorting this to zero was a plausible argument in 2024, but it's not now. Things could indeed still get even worse, before they get better. The bottom may not be in yet, but I think we're getting close. You may want to wait for lower $4s or high $3s. But, I think any potential profit to the downside at this point is greatly outweighed by upside potential if the company has a turnaround.
With that, what are the juiciest call option setups you see now?
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@freebirdsteven @Bogey65 We do need to see “demand is not the issue” with hard orders. Otherwise demand is primarily theoretical.
To be fair, it is a HUGE portion of my investment thesis, but it is a big assumption for me currently and I’d rather it not be an assumption much longer.
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@Bogey65 They have NOT expanded with demand. They couldn’t with the layout in TC. They are going to catch up to demand over the next 3-5 years. Demand is NOT the issue. Production is.
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@tmitch4040 @Bogey65 Unfortunately I’m not at all sure of this.
Would be a Godsend for sure, but is could be considered extremely far above the base-case.
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@Bogey65 Lines 3 and 4 are written in stone for 2H 26, I'm pretty sure. Their backlog is huge.
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@roily23 @PoweredByEos Ambulance chasers. Probably nothing will come of the suit.
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So this and @PoweredByEos Line 2 FAT on the same day?
NEW YORK, March 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Leading securities law firm Bleichmar Fonti & Auld LLP announces that a class action lawsuit has been filed against Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOSE) and certain of the Company’s senior executives for securities fraud after the Company’s stock dropped approximately 39%.
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@dmottco I don't know what the part itself is or if it exists in line 1, but it is definitely shaking / vibrating a clip or spacer of some kind into a consistent orientation for automated feeding.
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@jlawrence12345 @0marginalreturn Look man, we are all make our own decisions and must take responsibility for them. By the sounds, I've lost more than you since $18 and I'm not blaming others for it.
Sounds like you should turn the page from EOSE and go find something else to invest in. Maybe an index fund.
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@0marginalreturn Its a fucking scam stock led by a piece of shit lying ceo. I have lost 700 k because i didnt sell at 18. Now we r in danger of going sub 3 after they will miss q1. Joe needs to go NOW
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$EOSE There are many reasons to be concerned and many valid questions have been raised. All I will add is that in the three years I have been invested, there have been many “this is the end” scenarios - every one of those has proved to be a great buying opportunity. I think the market is pricing in too much fear here, and I’m buying. N.B. I am a moron and am most likely wrong - not financial advice, just my read of the current situation.
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@FreemyerGreg @tmitch4040 @CompoundingTony Inventory to sales not ideal for forward visibility, likely order size AND needing the space to store that inventory, but in the short-term if the big buyers are skittish for whatever reason - this can be a viable stop gap for near-term revs and scaling to ready / eager buyers
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I don't think it has anything to do with Line 1 production rate.
I wish it did.
Customers aren't putting their money where their mouth is.
Where is the MN8 RPO?
The Pendleton RPO?
Frontier RPO?
+++++
In normal conditions Q1 can't hit $60mm revenue without customers sending in their manufacturing release payments.
Alternatively, the Board may be telling Joe:
run the line and build inventory. We will deliver to any customer willing to accept cubes.
That isn't how $eose was supposed to run, but it is how lots of companies run.
Build for inventory, then sell the inventory.
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The $EOSE community on X right now is dominated by negativity. I get it. The stock has been brutal, management missed their 2025 guidance significantly after confirming it just weeks before Q4 ended, and trust in leadership is at a low point. People are angry, some are calling for the CEO to resign, and the mood feels like a breaking point.
But I've been investing in individual stocks for 24 years, and one thing I've learned is that emotions driven by price action and missed guidance are almost always the worst possible compass for decision-making.
The stock price is rarely an accurate reflection of what a company is actually worth. In my experience, a stock trades close to fair value maybe once or twice a year. The rest of the time it's either overpriced or underpriced, often dramatically. That doesn't make the frustration wrong, but it does make it a poor basis for conclusions.
There is also a lot of frustration about how quiet management has been. That criticism is not entirely unfair. But I'm not sure it's entirely fair either. When someone in the community asked me to co-sign an email pushing IR for monthly production updates, I declined. Asking a company to share more data to make shareholders feel better in the short term is not really an investor request, it's a comfort request. And comfort requests rarely move companies forward.
Someone else did send that email. The response from IR was real and substantive. They explained that monthly production figures at a single-product company are essentially a direct proxy for revenue, and that without sufficient context those numbers risk being misread by the market. That is a legitimate answer. You can disagree with the decision, but it's not the answer of a company that doesn't care or isn't thinking about its shareholders.
So I decided to do something that felt clarifying: completely ignore the stock price and ignore all forward guidance. Just look at what they have actually achieved, and what the trend lines in that data are telling us.
On revenue, the picture is more nuanced than most people realize. After strong growth in 2021 and 2022, revenue dipped slightly in 2023 and again in 2024. That looks bad on the surface, but the reason matters: they deliberately shut down the old manual Gen 2.3 production line and transitioned to the automated Z3 line. It's the same painful-but-necessary pattern Tesla went through when shifting to Model 3 production. You take a step back to take several steps forward. In 2025 that step forward arrived: $114.2M in revenue, up 632% year over year.
On production, the underlying numbers tell you why that revenue growth is real and not a one-time event. In July 2024 they installed their first automated Z3 line. By the end of 2024 annualized capacity was 1.25 GWh. Through 2025 they systematically expanded that, integrating subassembly automation, bringing 26 suppliers to full capacity, and ending the year at 2 GWh. Shipments grew 659% year over year in 2025. In Q4 alone, battery module output was up 76%, bipolar automation up 90%, and containerization up 82%. These are not paper improvements. They are physical throughput numbers from a factory that is genuinely scaling. All during a quarter with plenty of production challenges.
On margins, the trend is the story. Gross margin went from -324% in Q4 2024 to -94% in Q4 2025. Five consecutive quarters of improvement, without a single exception. They are nowhere near profitable yet, but the direction of that curve is unambiguous, and it's accelerating as volume increases.
On demand, the numbers are striking. Their pipeline has grown from roughly $13B at the start of 2024 to $23.6B by the end of 2025, representing 99 GWh of potential demand. Their current production capacity is 2 GWh. The market wants significantly more than they can currently build, which means the primary constraint on their growth is their own ability to scale, not demand.
And that is exactly what makes this company hard to own. Scaling physical manufacturing is genuinely one of the most difficult things a company can do. Timelines slip. Predictions miss. Even the best operators in the world struggle with this. That doesn't excuse poor communication from management, and I'm not defending it. But when I look at what Eos has actually built in two years, the automated line, the consistent quarterly improvement across every key metric, the growing pipeline, the first real balance sheet they've ever had, I see a company that is executing something incredibly difficult and showing real progress doing it.
The anger on X is understandable. Missing guidance that badly, that late, damages credibility. I feel that too. But all of that anger is being driven by two things: a stock price that is a poor indicator of company value, and predictions that I never fully relied on in the first place.
Eos is hard to own. But hard to own and wrong to own are not the same thing.
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@Limelistener @WhiteHouse @SecMullinDHS Don’t you think the former President acted weird plus dazed n confused half of the time.
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@Dolphins19845 Yes, that is bearish for sure but by no means does that mean that $1.37 is coming in my view.
Even just look at the last monthly FVG before the run up. That was $4.46 which has confluence with other strong supports.
You do some great work but this looks like engagement farming
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