Appa Bollera

The Future of Exits is the Private Markets IPO The Investor Liquidity Event, or ILE, will exist by the end of the decade, and is going to completely reshape capital markets

Interesting element of the private markets transition + nature of tech today: capital is increasingly specialized, labor is increasingly fungible

@TenreiroDaniel Critical caveat: non quants

Hedge fund guys are so much more fun to spend time with than tech guys. Rigorous, irreverent & don’t have their heads up their own asses

@justinsliao This is the crux of Triffin dilemma though – do this for long enough, you lose industry, then lose global reserve status Only works w/o peer competitors; DoD driven industrial policy has operated as a structural counter-weight to this in the reserve-currency era

U.S. deficits → foreign inflows → U.S. asset valuations is what keeps global liquidity flowing. Paying down U.S. debt = pulling oxygen out of the room. I think most people don't understand that the system is designed to perpetuate imbalance not to end in “full repayment.”

What's funny is, venture & tech really should be more macro driven, particularly wrt to business models + verticals that become more favorable under different macro conditions The combination of: - Trade instability - Reduced immigration (particularly low-skill) - Aging population - Supply chain onshoring Implies that a few very specific kinds of tech platforms & business models (blue collar / healthcare labor marketplaces + robotics-enabled vertical-service-providers) are primed to rip Venture's thematic cyclicality is a feature not a big, but it's more uncorrelated with macro than it should be Not a coincidence that FF, the only fund that really understands tech macro well, is investing aggressively here (e.g. Varda, Shinkei, Traba, Workrise) x.com/aiyappa__/stat…

remember when 2 days ago I said the tech people have horrible macro intuitions and a bunch of them were like wait a moment that's not fair we're goated and the day after they got collectively oneshotted by a fake headline about how Jay Powell has scrapped the inflation target

@kokoxsu The actual deep cut you're looking for archive.is/cAJfO

@CamdenKo We really did bet the farm huh?

bro is 2 tweets away from wiping out my parents' retirement fund

@wquist Race right now to nail the “ratings” equivalent for private markets Standard Metrics / Sacra are both in the game, but there’s still a lot of greenfield for whomever figures out how to replicate a Moody’s / S&P standards-based-moat before SEC figures out how to regulate

We are going to painstakingly build worse versions of all the features of the public markets cause a few folks don’t like hard questions on earnings calls aren’t we…

@nicochristie Would love to try this

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@auren Bullish on the tech-enabled rollup model (short-term) as the impetus for the creation of a new asset class (long-term) where M&A platforms are real co's unto themselves Permanent capital vehicles align CapEx incentives + operations improvement better than 10yr fund structures

in the old days, PE firms actually made their companies better. They would cut costs, reinvigorate the product, hire better people, sell off unneeded assets. The PE firm would truly transform the company for the better. today, it is rare for PE to really add value.

@GrantHesser @WillManidis yeah (although harder than it seems)

"internet native deal guys" the great dealmaker ceos of the last five years (sama, f, etc.) are playing a very different game from the great dealmakers of the past (eisner, chambers) the new generation are playing these deals like they’re video games, low alpha high beta, repeated reps, multiple swings at bat. very little concern over pissing off your counterparty because you can roll again. its craps now, not poker. its much easier to play like this online than in person. its not a coincidence that these deals are being structured over signal chats, not over three martini lunches. you can't look a man in the eye and retrade the same deal 24 times, but you can do it over signal, especially with deleting messages. information warfare at the micro interaction level. its very clear that this is working, or at least working for a subset of opportunities. i do really wonder about the longevity.

@MetacriticCap @Aureliusltd28 Downstream of shift to passive, or are investors just asleep @ the wheel?

@aiyappa__ @Aureliusltd28 I genuinely think that sell-side has never been more important

@luke_metro Overpriced by culture war X underpriced by markets Many such cases

I'm officially declaring the birthrate freakout the right wing version of climate change. Portending future doom as a consequence of the abundance of the present (digital atomization, individual consumerism instead of families, the Boomer generation).

Joe Schumpeter really was right all along

@hebbia @FlashDocs You guys should acquire / build a think-cell competitor The main thing professional services employees want for deck creation is structured + formatted outputs for a range of common graphical representations of data

Today, we're announcing our acquisition of @FlashDocs, the leader in generative slide deck creation. FlashDocs automatically turns LLM output into fully branded slide decks, creating presentations in seconds, not hours.

@atroyn aging population is the only macro thesis that matters right now

aggregate demand shock when the boomers die off in numbers is going to be brutal. if you thought the 70s oil shocks were bad…

@paulswaney3 @carrynointerest cc @nikhilvnamburi maybe the music really never stops

IS PRIVATE EQUITY COOKED? THE LIQUIDITY BOTTLENECK. Private equity is facing its own existential threat. Hugh Mcarthur, Head of Bain's PE went on Ted Seides Podcast to sound the alarm. I came for the VC industry before. DID YOU THINK PE WOULD BE SPARED? Nah. SHALL WE BEGIN?

If traditional science funding is a supply-push mechanism, what are the demand-pull equivalents to solve more basic-research style problems? Advanced Market Commitments are a step in the right direction, is there anything else?

Inter-state population in-flows & out-flows are underpriced in an era of secular population aging The "Long Texas" thesis gets stronger & stronger