IRResistible CAGRs🍁

For the next time I forget, there is no price too low for value stocks and no price too high for growth stocks.

People love assuming gold is an inflation trade but it often isn't... What if Gold has been an AI deflation trade recently? It's performance most closely follows semis... Which are the AI trade.

@Jordan_Kofman @DavidBCollum @DoombergT Unless gold was secretly an AI deflation trade recently

@DavidBCollum @DoombergT 2020-2023 suggests gold does well when the ingredients for inflation are being laid, but poorly during the actual inflation

.@DoombergT makes the interesting argument that guys who got caught on the wrong side of the oil trade in big way may be dumping anything they can sell into the market to explain the precious metal raucus price changes.

@valueventurez Over what timeframe? I think LaaS next 12-24 months will be high/er but on BS growth will be lower than a few years ago. CLAB isn't expanding as quickly. Still think on BS will be decent, just not +40%

@deepvalueco Do you expect go-forward growth with LAAS and other initiatives to be higher than historical growth? I’m astonished by how much the multiple has compressed

Propel's trailing P/E is down 65% since January 2025 Earnings are up 28%

How long until $SABR shareholders are begging for a $CSU.TO take private at $2

Are we really stupid enough to slow the economy further to fight a slowing economy which is already in "oversupply"? ... Don't make me answer this...

@barometerca I don't disagree with the rest of your points either just that it's very likely correlated with PMs which have been hot recently. What was hot gets dumped harder in broad risk pullbacks. Clearly the market is concerned about the shock factor... Risk off.

Well, you might wel be right. I am just pointing out a very weak technical structure…a broadening top followed by a break of the 200 day moving average is not a good technical look. I could go on to list, that defensives and energy strong, while technology and financials weak is also not a good combination. I could also point out that market breath has been narrowing for weeks…often a precursor. I could also point out, that rising long-term bond yields put pressure on multiples, and I could also point out, that a sharp increase in the price of energy can be problematic for economic growth. So, this may not all add up to a hill of beans, but as a technician, I get paid to recognize risks to commonly held beliefs and the message of the market

Careful here...equities look vulnerable $QQQ

@Schermerhorn007 @barometerca Also... There was literally a significant pullback about a year ago... Sooooooo

@deepvalueco @barometerca Oh yea. You think rhree years of outrageous returns in equities in sustainable without a significant pullback?

@Schermerhorn007 @barometerca The S&P it +10.5% CAGR over the last 5 years... Historically not outrageous... But... I have no idea where your assertion here is coming from

I think he meant for this one to come out Monday morning.

@acorn_capital MANY individual companies are ~20% off their highs. Timing/rotation with the overall market makes it look different. Tbh, I haven't seen the P/Es on many within the QQQ look so reasonable in a LONG time.

@deepvalueco Sell-off for ants tbh…

I mean yeah, Friday bottoms basically don't happen but MY GOD the sentiment here is

And there should be time for the conflict to be resolved and have oil on a downward path by the time they feel the need to be stupid

At the speed that Central banks move and the amount they reflect on "core" it seems early to panic on hikes as the spike in gas will hit the consumer like a rate hike and likely slow core

VIX up to 29... Seems ahead Rates bets went a bit crazy. Oil will hurt but imo not catastrophic for US/Can without associated policy stupidity.

@thaxcapital Sacrificed a generation to prolong the death of the loonie

@deepvalueco Never underestimate policy stupidity. BoC has already gone full retard. Sacrificing housing to save the Loonie.

Safe to say crude by rail economics are there again.

Oil hasn't made new highs in the past week but the market accelerated... We have priced in a (silly) policy reversal. Seems like a bunch of the fear is tied to that.

Guess they didn't bribe Trump with a big enough plane...

@justinian1800 @JoshYoung "Know" is an interesting term.

@deepvalueco @JoshYoung Oil bulls know that without the war, prices need to head into the 70s to keep production up with demand.

There are great opportunities in oil and gas stocks here. Pessimists sound smart. Optimists get rich.

Down to 0.8x book with the balance sheet to buy 20% of the company to get up to leverage target. Although in Q3 they slower the buyback (for no reason in hindsight) to push towards the acquisition.

Hoping Linamar is either buying back shares aggressively (and haven't filed yet) or close to a meaningful acquisition. Use that balance sheet.