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@feararbith

Polymarket Entrou em Ekim 2020
2.2K Seguindo93 Seguidores
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
In June 2024, I deposited $100 on Polymarket. By September of that year, I had made $70,000. Life changing would be an understatement. Unfortunately, I lost it all partly to an unexpected clarification, and then a bad arb with even worse luck... I didnt trade for a year, went back to regular life. But I felt I was missing one of the best opportunities of my life get away from me. So, I loaded up another wallet with $750 on January 13th 2026. And just 7 weeks later, I've crossed $10k PNL. It's good to be back.
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@PredMTrader Is it not getting tiring at this point? Too much winning...
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@GenaTheCroco We've now reached the Jonestown Massacre stage of airdrop farming
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Gena
Gena@GenaTheCroco·
YALL ARE ABSOLUTE MORONS, THIS IS THE MOST IDIOTIC THING IVE READ IN A LONG TIME
Maidez@0xMaidez

I plan to "burn" $50 by sponsoring rewards on Polymarket Karcharodon brought up a new criteria for possible $POLY drop Instead of farming liquidity rewards, he suggested to.. Provide them. Here's how it works: > you press "Add Rewards" on any market > enter the amount you're willing to add Basically, it's a pure donation, you're getting nothing in exchange (at least not yet) But that's what makes it interesting: Not many people will do that -> they'll stand out if there's a drop Say whatever you want, but i'll try it.

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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@BitBrew1 @dgt10011 There is enormous edge to be had by ordinary people in geopolitical, political, markets on polymarket. There is an ocean of information online, there for people willing to do the research. It also requires a keen ability to discern, but this is a skill you can develop in time.
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BitBrew
BitBrew@BitBrew1·
Many times you reference Polymarket or prediction markets as a good source of resistance investment in your 60/40 portfolio. For the common person, how can they have positive EV in Polymarket? Sports, politics, economics, no matter the topic, there are always things that the common person can’t really quantify because they don’t have asymmetrical information. So essentially, Polymarket results to just “gambling” and not “investing” for the average person. In my understanding, very rarely can someone have a real edge that actually determines the outcome, rather than being just lucky on a bet.
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Jeff Park
Jeff Park@dgt10011·
The blurry line between “investing” and “gambling” is solely determined by your view whether one is positive EV or not, rather than whether the system itself is deterministic or stochastic. In other words, it’s defined by the player, not the game. To understand this, is to understand the Radical Portfolio Theory.
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Searfaiċ
Searfaiċ@rinagaelriochta·
Morning guys, just a quick one I wanted to jump onnn. We were on the way to pick up a fresh pair of loafers after meeting the client in the Aviva and honestly, the GAA lads had the whole place in bits. Do they just not understand how roads work? Ehh, sitting there in their
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@penguin_pmkt I have always wondered, "who are these people?" Are they even ensouled?
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ice@penguin_pmkt·
you should not be trading on prediction markets if you’re this retarded
AshenSoul@0xashensoul

is the market pricing a chronological impossibility? the "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by" contract requires a continuous 14-day silence starting by april 7. trump's headline pushed odds up, but confirmed iranian ballistic missile strikes today (april 8) on israeli soil reset the timer. you can't retroactively start a 14-day window after a reset. true odds are 0%, yet people are still buying at ~47¢. am i missing a detail, or is the timeline just trading on a dead story? market: #zCJcBZM" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/iran-x-i…

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Marc Levy
Marc Levy@timelywriter·
NEW YORK (@AP) — A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@PredMTrader Potentially a career defining week for him in Islamabad.
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PredictionMarketTrader
PredictionMarketTrader@PredMTrader·
Assuming we get a successful, official end to the Iran war soon, I'm very curious what this will mean for JD Vance's 2028 odds and if he'll receive any credit
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ice
ice@penguin_pmkt·
ladies and gentlemen: your counterparty
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Parity
Parity@PredictParity·
We have tagged 5,785 bots on Polymarket. Cumulative PnL: +$104,962,353 Fun fact: these 5,785 bots make up 39.9% of Polymarket's total volume.
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Parity
Parity@PredictParity·
@alansass Hi Alan, we defined these bots by looking at traders with 2,000 or more daily transactions, please note it may be missing some. We are looking at the trades that have happened on polymarket, over all categories.
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@stockdatamarket I got fills at 0.3c for SPX closing Up about an hour before the close. What a funny day.
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@mahdiofalltime And no controversy towards put buyers in Equities hoping for Iran to get obliterated.
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@rafaelnadal2008 I didn't follow it all too closely. What was easy about it in your opinion?
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marcus
marcus@rafaelnadal2008·
Some of the easiest money I've ever made. Had Apr 9, Apr 16 and May 1 positions, all of which paid out this morning. Crossed 20k pnl with this win! 🎉
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Gena
Gena@GenaTheCroco·
There are rumors that 🇰🇵North Korean hackers have infiltrated @Polymarket. While I have my doubts, it is well known there are hacker groups from North Korea which infiltrate western companies to steal IP or crypto. With Polymarket experiencing huge growth could any of them have dodged HR background checks? I'd feel more comfortable if they audit their employees. What do you think?
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
After taking the whole month of March off, I finished TACO Tuesday up $3.8k! Got fills as low as 0.3c on SPX Up/Down. Had 12,800 Up at an avg of 2.1c, which I sold into the pump. (Maybe I should have held??) I also won on the Ceasefire by April 7th market, which I played by ear. Up $5.3k for April total, and it's only the 8th!
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@Domahhhh What are your thoughts on it lasting?
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Cungly
Cungly@feararbith·
@_PeterRyan I think takes like his are quite naive. It's a skill to get what you want out of these models. It's also its own field. Look at what the frontier labs are doing on: prompt engineering, context engineering, and mechanistic interpretability.
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