Sergey Markov

@oksgraphic @matsapulina Не совсем тоже самое но Гитлер завез 8 миллионов работников (добровольно и не совсем). На военных заводах 30% работников были иностранцы. По этому поводу были очень серьезные конфликты и разногласия в Германии похожие на дискуссии сейчас.

@matsapulina самая главная претензия ультраправых к путину это ведение политики не для русских: безконтрольный завоз мигрантов, привелегии кавказским анклавам, адская коррупция и кумовство - и в этом основное отличие путина от Гитлера, как это не очевидно либералам, я не понимаю

Штош, спасибо Юре Дудю за то, что всякий раз находит ответ на бренный вопрос “куда потратить 5 часов моей жизни”. Пожалуй, главная эмоция, которую у меня вызвала персоналия Дениса Капустина - это сожаление о том, как мы на самом деле далеки от истинной свободы слова. Жаль, что человеку приходится жеманно мяться на вопросах о его взглядах, подбирать аккуратные слова, стесняться в выражениях. Без иронии - мечтаю жить в мире, где всякий может выйти на площадь и, вдохнув полной грудью, прокричать о своей любви к Гитлеру. Убеждена, что единственная причина, почему подобные идеи до сих имеют хоть какую-то популярность - это ультимативное табу на их обсуждение. Не осуждение - это-то можно - а именно обсуждение. По мне так главный враг всяких деструктивных нежизнеспособных идеологий - это открытая добросовестная дискуссия. Поэтому хотелось бы, чтобы Денис мог искренне отвечать на вопросы о том, что именно его привлекает в политике и политиках Третьего Рейха, а собеседник мог искренне ему оппонировать. Чтобы получалось именно столкновение идей - а не столкновение социально приемлемого консенсуса и заранее обреченной попытки под него подстроиться с помощью изощренной ментальной гимнастики. И как результат подобного интеллектуального псевдо-упражнения мы и получаем платиновые рассуждения вроде: — Гитлер - герой Германии, потому что поднял страну с колен, хоть и является военным преступником и убийцей — Говоря Германия я имел в виду только немцев — Говоря немцы я имел в виду только не репрессированных Гитлером немцев — Говоря не репрессированные немцы я имел в виду только тех, кто жил в том историческом период … — Люди, которые говорят, что Путин герой и поднял страну с колен, не правы, потому что он военный преступник и убийца Причем я уверена - Денис честно не понимает, что с этой цепочкой не так. А ведь это было бы куда интереснее в данном контексте - разобраться не почему у него Гитлер красавчик, а почему в такой вот парадигме Путин оказался ему врагом. Военные преступления и убийства? Так это не определяющий фактор, как мы выяснили, если ты страну со дна поднимаешь. Отсутствие демократической смены режима и долгие 25 лет у власти, на которые сетовал Денис? Тоже не проблема само по себе - его же любимчик Франко у власти был аж 36. Нарушение границ суверенного государства, в котором Денис обвиняет Путина? Ну это вообще смешно, с его-то придыханием к политике Третьего Рейха. Что же тогда на самом деле сделало Дениса противником режима? И почему в это же время множество его идейных соратников былых лет до сих пор не отвернулись от Путина, как он? Вот вам моя догадка. Все, в чем на самом деле провинился Путин - так это то, что таких вот зигующих правых молодчиков начала двухтысячных он решил одаривать тюремными сроками и преследованиями, а не доверием и гос. чинами, как они того ожидали. С их-то точки зрения они искренне старались на благо государства, боролись за лучшую жизнь для своих сограждан, а их вон как через колено перекинули. Они через уличные побоища, беготню за мигрантами и теневое курирование от АПшки хотели в костюмчик и в думу, а в итоге то, что выглядело, как легитимный путь во власть, оказалось путем в тюрьму. А потому и разница между Денисом и его бывшими друзьями тут, как по мне, тривиальная. Просто они все еще верят, что такой путь во власть для них существует, а он уже нет. Вот и вся глубина мысли. А как глобальный итог мы видим трагедию человека, который рискует жизнью за какую-то идею, которую даже вслух произнести не может. Человека, в своем традиционализме абсолютно чуждого современной европейской культуре, которого череда обстоятельств привела к вооруженной борьбе за право чужой страны самоопределиться как часть этой самой культуры. Есть в этом, конечно, какая-то неуловимая философская несправедливость.

@312c @thefoxyhyena @IntCyberDigest It’s pretty routine speed and I personally moved around that amount of data between regions and between clouds. It’s not even expensive. aws.amazon.com/data-transfer-…

@sergeyma @thefoxyhyena @IntCyberDigest That's bandwidth speeds within a client's VPC, the data still has to be extracted and does not support speeds that fast to the rest of the internet.

‼️🇺🇸 Lockheed Martin has allegedly been breached and 375TB of data is being offered for sale on what appears to be a Russian 'Threat Market'. They've priced the highly confidential data at $598 million...

@312c @thefoxyhyena @IntCyberDigest AWS GovCloud supports ec2 instances with 200gbps connection. Not saying it’s trivial but definitely possible.

@sergeyma @thefoxyhyena @IntCyberDigest 375TB at 1 gbps would take 35 days to transfer. To extract 375TB in 12 hours would require a 70 gbps connection.

@thefoxyhyena @IntCyberDigest 375TB can be exfiltrated in a matter of hours and security that they have is likely very robust on paper but may have gaping holes in reality. Reality is that everything is one configuration change away from being fully exposed.

You guys dont have a fucking clue what you're talking about. First off, do you have any idea what kind of security these guys have in place? Do you know how long it would take to exfiltrate 375TB of data? You guys are spreading bullshit propaganda either intentionally or by mistake but either way this is stupid as hell.

@VJMPub @KirkegaardEmil Ashkenazi are only 30% of Israeli population and 85% of US Jews.

@KirkegaardEmil The selection effect must be massive if Israel only has an IQ of 94

Our new meta-analysis of American race gaps in IQ/intelligence is out! The main results didn't change that much, with 2 exceptions:

@UnseriousDude_ @lunarwallfacer_ @NathanpmYoung Not particularly supportive of wealth tax but we have property tax as example which is pretty much wealth tax for the middle class. So the answer to your question is that if stock goes down 50%, you pay less tax that year.

@lunarwallfacer_ @NathanpmYoung No, not complete expertise. But she should be able to answer basic questions about how the policy she supports would work. For example, if I hold $500 million in stock in a company and I get taxed on it, then the stock goes down 50%, what happens? This is an elementary question.

@SensitiveHerb @PaIIahAbdul It’s like 2 hour on train to get to manhattan though.

@PaIIahAbdul INWOOD as no ones first choice???? dude you're literally on the A which connects you to midtown which connects you to basically everything else and its a super chill & nature-y neighborhood. like what😭.

White people live on such a different world lmao

@AAluminium @Svetlyi Ну, надо признать, что меню в Италии в целом довольно однообразное и быстро приедается. Ну, то есть понятно, что в Милане и в Риме можно найти любую кухню, но даже в туристических городах второго уровня все довольно грустно.

@Svetlyi Печально если Италия для вас это только пицца паста ризотто и брускетты лол

Совершенно без зазрения совести ходил перекусить в макдак в Риме, Париже и других больших столицах. Никогда не понимал этого дроча, что в путешествиях нужно есть только местную еду 24/7 - вы как с голодного края? Только макароны с фаршем ели всю жизнь?

@SamMacD86958750 @CPATaxTeam Add living expenses (minimum 15-20k)

@CPATaxTeam 25k seems like it’s less than $50k? You live in Texas. Right? In state tuition at UTexas Austin is like $13k, isn’t it? Around 6k at A&M? Seems like a kid could get ahead at such a place?

We’ll have both kids in college next year. It will be nearly $100k/year. We’re happy to be their supplemental scholarship to better their lives. I can’t imagine a kid of a FIRE parent knowing mom and dad thought retiring on a $60k of annual expenses was sufficient and now can’t attend a school of their dreams because their parents didn’t want to work in their 40’s. Life is about legacy and relationships.

@vadfred @DeHergestelltin Эквивалент это 94000 в год зарплата до налогов. Хорошая зарплата для старшего программиста или две средних немецких зарплат.

@DeHergestelltin Ого .. у нас друзья ..они бэббиситеру платят 4500 кэш ..она что уже богатый человек ?

В Германии если вы живете один и имеете на руки 2700€/месяц, то вы принадлежите к среднему классу. При доходе 3600€ вы уже богатый человек. ☝️ Источник: ZDFneo

@drag0nfly__ @kazama_mama @xav_moss @nicolegelinas Airlines check passport before boarding (longer time to board) and often force you to do in person check in (with long line). Another reason to come earlier is that there are plenty of domestic flights but with international if you miss it next one could be only next day.

@kazama_mama @xav_moss @nicolegelinas Passports are not checked in the US. FOH with ai slop

I have missed many flights due to my own fault but today was not one of them. Got to JFK T5 priority line 74 minutes before 6:59am domestic flight. Probably the earliest I’ve ever got to the airport because people said “there’s a line” and I said “ok I’ll get there early.” Priority line was two hours wait. So now I am … early … for the next flight … at 10.

I hear this a lot on new vs old car but real difference in TCO for new vs old is almost negligible. From ChatGPT > Over 6 years, a new Toyota Corolla costs about $34K total (~$5.7K/year), while buying a 3-year-old Corolla costs about $31K (~$5.1K/year)—so used saves only ~10–15% because Corollas depreciate slowly; the new car has higher depreciation but lower maintenance and risk (plus warranty), while the used car reduces depreciation but adds higher repair costs and variability

People hate on Dave Ramsey but honestly he's the best advice for a lot of people It's oversimplified if you're financially stable, but otherwise most people genuinely just need to hear "DO NOT BUY A NEW CAR"

@realEstateTrent PCSK9 inhibitors are much better than statins - way less side effects.

I’m 46, and it feels like basically all on my peers are on statins

@Nick_Davidov 5.5% is off by at least 1%. I assume that Bezos will get way better rate than the one in photo that brokerage gives to everyone.

"Billionaires lending against their stock at near zero rates" is a ZIRP era myth. Even for a 9 figure loan for a flagship UHNW client (think Bezos) institutions won't give anything below 5.5% today with most loans being SOFR + 1.5-3.5% and banks are very conservative on risk and collateral. The line is also usually non‑purpose: you can’t just borrow cheaply and lever into more stocks; it’s for taxes, real estate, business, lifestyle, etc. The carry is real, the risk is real, and the “free money” meme is wrong. Moreover, I'm going to argue that in the current system billionaires win only if everyone wins (and IRS still eventually gets their part), but if they lose - they stand to loose more than everyone else (but IRS and the bank still gets their part). Founders don’t borrow because debt is cheap; they borrow because selling is expensive: Big insider sales are a nasty signal and can hit the stock. In high‑tax jurisdictions, a top‑bracket founder might lose a very large chunk of every dollar sold to tax, so to net $100M they may need to sell something like $160–200M. If they believe their company can still compound several‑fold, deferring that sale (and the tax) can dominate even a ~6% loan cost. If the company keeps compounding, the founder effectively “pays interest instead of realizing a giant gain now,” and everyone else (other shareholders, IRS on the bigger future pie) rides that growth. If it doesn’t compound, or draws down hard, the founder has paid interest for years and still ends up paying tax once they finally sell. A realistic founder loan Example: Founder owns $15B of stock in a $100B public company and wants a $100M personal line. Terms: - Facility: Securities‑backed line of credit / Lombard loan, 1–3y renewable, interest‑only, bank can re‑underwrite and reprice. - Rate today: Around mid‑single digits all‑in (e.g., SOFR + a couple of percent), not “free money.” - Collateral: They might pledge, say, $400M of their company stock. Bank only lets them borrow up to ~25% LTV on that concentrated, insider position. - Monitoring: Daily mark‑to‑market, automatic LTV checks. If the stock falls enough to breach maintenance LTV, they get a margin call; if they don’t cure, the bank can sell shares without asking. - Use of proceeds: Can’t funnel it back into marginable securities; can use it for taxes, real estate, private deals, or lifestyle. Effective picture: they’re paying real interest for the privilege of not selling stock today and not lighting up a giant tax bill and negative signal. Here's how it can play out: Assume: Loan: $100M Rate: 5.8% → ≈ $5.8M/year interest Time horizon: 5 years Founder’s tax hit on realized gains: assume an effective ~40–45% just for illustration (CA is usually more expensive than that). 1) Sell stock now To net $100M after ~45% tax, they sell ≈ $182M of stock. Tax bill ≈ $82M. They now own $15B − $182M ≈ $14.818B of stock + $100M cash. If the sale and signal knock the stock 5–7% short‑term, a $100B company can see $5–7B of paper value wiped, including ~$0.7–1.0B off the founder’s remaining stake. They’re fully liquid for $100M, but paid a huge tax and potentially dented their own equity and everyone else’s. Everyone loses, IRS even. 2) Take the $100M loan, company 3x’s Over 5 years, company goes from $100B → $300B (rare but not impossible), founder’s stake from $15B → $45B on paper. They’ve paid ~$29M cumulative interest (5.8% × 5 years on $100M, ignoring compounding). To clear the $100M loan plus, say, $40–50M tax on the necessary stock sale at the higher price, they might only need to liquidate a fraction of what they would have sold upfront. In other words, instead of selling ~$180M when the company was worth $100B, they sold something like that after it was worth $300B — a much smaller percent of the business. Here the “borrow instead of sell” trade worked: the founder gave the bank tens of millions of interest but preserved a far larger upside and deferred tax. Everyone wins. IRS and the public wins (much more taxes from all shareholders in the company). 3) Take the $100M loan, company flat Company stays around $100B. Founder’s stake hovers near $15B. They still pay ~$29M in interest over 5 years. At some point they want to clean up the balance sheet or the bank tightens terms; they sell stock to repay the $100M and pay tax at roughly the same valuation they started with. Net effect: they got $100M of spending power earlier, but ultimately still recognized gains and also bled tens of millions of interest. Great deal for the bank; ambiguous for the founder unless the early liquidity was truly high‑value. Founder ~loses. Bank wins. IRS is even. 4) Take the $100M loan, stock down 70% Company goes from $100B → $30B over 5 years; founder’s stake from $15B → $4.5B. Pledged block: initial $400M → now $120M. Loan is still $100M → LTV ≈ 83% on the pledged slice, way above the 25–35% comfort band. The bank hits them with a margin call. To get back to 25% LTV on $120M, they’d only be allowed a $30M loan. They must either repay $70M or pledge a lot more stock from the remaining ~$4.1B unpledged stake. If they can’t or won’t, the bank starts forced selling: Sell down most or all of that pledged block at depressed prices to repay the $100M. If markets are illiquid or keep falling during liquidation, the sale might not fully cover $100M and the founder can still owe a residual balance. Depending on tax basis, they might still owe some tax on gains from earlier stock appreciation, but more importantly, they’ve paid ~$29M in interest and suffered a 70%+ drawdown on their main asset, with the bank protected first. In this path, “borrow against stock” turned into: leverage magnified pain, the bank got paid, and the founder (and other shareholders) ate the downside. Founder looses big time. Bank is even. IRS is even.

US taxes global income so getting citizenship in New Zealand or Maldives won't help. Exit tax prevents from ditching US citizenship. NZ and Maldives will extradite if you try to hide there. Obviously you can go to Iran or jungles in Brazil so nobody can find/extradite you but then what's the point of being billionaire?

This is moronic since billionaires have all the means to claim citizenship in New Zealand or the Maldives or whatever. And it’s insane to seize the assets of American citizens while the foreigners who own around $70 trillion in American assets are untouched. Furthermore, the actual worst thing about this is that it’s a concession to permanent decline. It’s embedding the gerontocracy into our society. A growing civilization doesn’t tax wealth. It responsibly taxes earnings. Emulating the worst instincts of California socialists never ends well.

@ColinDreams @Noahpinion Why would it affect Iran or Russian calculations? If it gets tough or just uncomfortable in Dubai, Russian elite can just move back to Russia (or Thailand, Bali or wherever). It's not like they owe allegiance or loyalty to Dubai.

@Noahpinion Dumb for many reasons, one of which is that the Russian elite love Dubai

Jeez that's dumb

@deredleritt3r @ReggBrown75 What if Chinese law prohibits TOS terms that prevent AI companies from distilling content? Or make those terms unenforceable? I would take Anthropic more seriously if they sue those companies in Chinese court.

Respectfully disagree that it's spiritually the same. As a lawyer, I can easily construct a reasonable argument as to why training on public works should be permitted. I cannot, however, construct any argument as to why it should be okay to violate the terms of a written contract.

There is a big difference between Anthropic training its models on published works and a Chinese lab using data generated by Claude to train its models in violation of Anthropic's TOS. In the former case, there is no contract between Anthropic and the author. Anthropic therefore can make an argument that its training of models on published works constitutes fair use (and courts can decide whether this argument has merit). In the latter case, there is a contract (the TOS) between Anthropic and the user. Violating the TOS is breach of contract, and Anthropic is perfectly within its rights to take actions against a user who has done so.

@Andreas_Witte @johnredwood Can UK with help from US just recolonize Mauritius back? Solves a bunch of legal problems. Main question if Mauritius can be run as profitable colony - may be economists can weigh in.

Mauritius could pursue ICJ/ITLOS/UNGA proceedings against the UK over Chagos if the deal (or a revised deal, considering the resettlement issue) fails: All key rulings (2019 ICJ AO, ITLOS 2021/2023, UNGA Res 73/295) affirm the UK's administration as a „continuing unlawful act“. For non-lawyers: You been ordered to stop hitting someone else over the head with a hammer, but simply carry on doing so. Can You imagine that this increases the claim for damages?@pritipatel Principles of good faith & Estoppel (protecting legitimate expectations under Art. 18 VCLT) may apply, as the preamble of the unratified agreement states its core purpose is to end this ongoing wrong. #Chagos @b_judah @gregbagwell

The draft Mauritius UK Treaty has not been ratified. If the government now does the right thing and tells Mauritius the UK Parliament will not ratify, they should make clear there will be no compensation. The government always needed Parliament’s consent.

@pimoxl @GergelyOrosz @karrisaarinen It’s not 2.5% though. Merchant pays around 2.5% fee but most consumers have reward credit card that returns them 1.5%-2% back so real spread is less than 1% and for consumers who care it’s negative as they maximize points/mikes.

Eh. I just don’t buy this because I actually understand specific examples all too well: 1. It paints a picture of DoorDash disrupted by vibe coded alternatives. Dude. DoorDash / Uber moat is NOT software!! It’s real-world physical logistics. AI cannot disrupt DD… 2. (cont’d)

@kenaviba @bearskinneck999 @JEyal_RUSI accessory to a crime

@bearskinneck999 @JEyal_RUSI You need to inform rental company who will add Canada travel to contract and issue a proof of insurance. I don’t understand why the wife was detained even if husband did something wrong.

Awful journalism. At no point are we told why her husband clearly ignored US laws by working and was refused a green card, why they had visas which expired when no visas are required for UK citizens, or why they were refused entry into Canada, which is very lenient on tourists