ForeignPolicyTracker

@DefenceGeek @MATA_osint Thank you! I look forward to a post about that, if you will make one.

@FP_tracker1 @MATA_osint We have a vague idea but it'll take a few hours for me and the team to collate all our data, and cross-check everything!

Bomber Mission 60 - The Last One? #FreeIran‌ --- Operation EPIC FURY --- The second bomber mission launched yesterday (7th April 2026) from RAF Fairford ended up being a single B-52H "Stratofortress" bomber (it was meant to be 2 aircraft, but one didn't launch due to technical issues). The solo bomber, callsign "ORKIN46", flew towards Iran and reached CENTCOM as the ceasefire announcement was being made. I'm told by local spotters that it did not launch any of the cruise missiles it launched with and is arriving back at RAF Fairford (EGVA) momentarily. Given the ceasefire now in place, it is likely that any missions planned for today have been scrubbed. Mission LX B-52H "ORKIN45" 60-0023 #AE587C "Bomber Barons" (did not fly) B-52H "ORKIN46" 61-0035 #AE58AF "Witches Brew" @MATA_osint @Andyyyyrrrr @Osinttechnical @NotWoofers @ArmchairAdml @vcdgf555 @steffanwatkins @TheIntelFrog @rocketron101 @jamjake01

@AncestorGong @DefenceGeek @MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml @vcdgf555 @steffanwatkins @TheIntelFrog It’s likely in my opinion, unless there is a negotiated agreement. Don’t forget in 2 weeks time there will be the USS Boxer and the USS George HW Bush in place in the AOR.

@DefenceGeek @MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml @vcdgf555 @steffanwatkins @TheIntelFrog Do you think this entire ceasefire is a ruse to build up assets for a ground operation to maybe cease kharg island?

"Hogs" move forward again #FreeIran‌ --- #OperationEpicFury --- A number of A-10C "Thunderbolt II" attack aircraft (also known as "HOGS") are on the move again from RAF Lakenheath (EGUL) this morning towards the Middle East as part of "Coronet East 032" with support from tankers flying out of Glasgow Prestwick Airport (EGPK): KC-135R "BORA25" 58-0102 #AE0656 KC-135R "BORA26" 60-0349 #AE0687 KC-135R "BORA35" 62-3542 #AE0486 @MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml

@dex_eve Remember the USS George HW Bush and USS Boxer are moving toward the region and they will be there within two weeks. Markets can breathe before another escalation takes place, absent a broader deal.

My guess is that once everyone realizes that nothing was actually agreed to we'll be back to war in about a week or so. But I could be wrong.

If Iran really does agree to this without any garuntee that US forces will leave the region, leaving open US rearmament, its a serious retreat from their initial demands and possibly a long-term loss for Iran.

@walsh067 @NotWoofers Well with massive strikes against all energy facilities Iran will become a failed state with a hardened IRGC in power, not good imo

@NotWoofers What do you think will happen in the long run when these strikes inevitably don’t bring Iran to the negotiating table

There will be no US/Israel-Iran ceasefire deal by the deadline. The situation will only worsen. Plan accordingly.

@NotWoofers A realistic option would be: target refineries and blockade kharg instead of destroying it, and seize tankers like in Venezuela; this would still allow Trump to retain leverage. Destroying all the energy infrastructure will take all the leverage away and create an energy crisis

The Iranian regime believes that it is in a position to dictate terms, not the other way around. Such behavior is likely to infuriate Donald Trump and I believe he will follow through with his threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure.

To summairze: the increase in #US assets suggest that within the next 2 weeks, absent a negotiated end to the #war, things will only escalate further as the US tries to force #Iran to the table and conclude the #bombing campaign on its own terms. 🧵

- this option might increase US leverage for negotiations at the cost of a wider energy crisis. It will also immediately make use of the USS Tripoli. - shouldn’t this option work, in WEEK 8 the US will escalate operations again with enough ground assets to seize Iranian islands

Some thoughts heading into WEEK 6 of #Iran operations🧵 - We are likely heading into an escalation due to an influx of assets: 1) USS Gerald Ford is back in theater; 2) USS Tripoli is operational; 3) USS George HW Bush is likely ~1 week away from #CENTCOM; 4) USS Boxer 2 weeks

@blueredsky6 @MoloWarMonitor @FaytuksNetwork Well your brain, wherever it is from, does not know that little birds are stored inside a MC-130J

Pentagon sources say there was no firefight during the rescue of the stranded airman in Iran, only suppressive fire to keep Iranian forces away from the WSO - FOX News

@NotWoofers This might be the wildest tweet he has ever written…and there have been some really wild ones. Miltiverse

@MoloWarMonitor @FaytuksNetwork They were stuck…probably some problem with the tires during landing and they could not take off anymore. So they destroyed them to prevent them from getting captured, and brought other mc130s in.

@FaytuksNetwork So how did they manager to lose 3 helicopters and two C-130?

@AlexandreCruz @OAlexanderDK Absolutely

@OAlexanderDK Is this geoloc credible? This location does not make sense for the rescue op.

Setting up a FARP half an hour’s drive south of Iran’s second biggest city is insane. Must have been the weight of the CSAR crew’s balls that got the aircraft stuck in the mud.