Indra

7.5K posts

Indra

Indra

@IndraStocks

Looking for quality with promising long term equilibrium. Opinions irrelevant, but argue with me anyways. Working on @Clarity_Markets

Присоединился Temmuz 2021
823 Подписки6.7K Подписчики
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Indra
Indra@IndraStocks·
New blog post covering what I've been working on the last 6 months. Clarity now has (for supported tickers): 10 years of historical financials SEC filings Earnings transcripts And much more You'll also see me incessantly talking about it for the foreseeable future 🫡.
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@midwit_capital Knowledge graph is neat but it's like a very very small part of building a harness. Not something you're super worried about imo. Hardest part is actually building the harness
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Indra
Indra@IndraStocks·
Worthless 2c: US/Israel legitimately going all out against core infrastructure makes Iran effectively ungovernable. No power, water, oil, economy. Entirely possible there's no deal but eventually enough extremists die that the guys left can choose to at least rule something
Lou Pai, CEO, Enron Energy Services (parody)@EnergyPeddler

@toiletkingcap No but I am starting to feel like a real moron, or insiders just know things that I don’t. I’m not sure why everyone thinks we are so close to a deal. Maybe I should think so too. Idk.

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Vivian Cromwell
Vivian Cromwell@viviancromwell·
@rakyll @antigravity Are Google products developed on antigravity? I am curious its low adoption externally. I tried twice it threw errors so I haven’t bothered since.
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Jaana Dogan ヤナ ドガン
Everyone I work with uses @antigravity like every second of the day and rely on numerous agentic helpers we have for every review and more. Most people evaluate other harnesses for personal projects continuously, and some are driving multi harness orchestration.
Steve Yegge@Steve_Yegge

I was chatting with my buddy at Google, who's been a tech director there for about 20 years, about their AI adoption. Craziest convo I've had all year. The TL;DR is that Google engineering appears to have the same AI adoption footprint as John Deere, the tractor company. Most of the industry has the same internal adoption curve: 20% agentic power users, 20% outright refusers, 60% still using Cursor or equivalent chat tool. It turns out Google has this curve too. But why is Google so... average? How is it that a handful of companies are taking off like a spaceship, and the rest, including Google, are mired in inaction? My buddy's observation was key here: There has been an industry-wide hiring freeze for 18+ months, during which time nobody has been moving jobs. So there are no clued-in people coming in from the outside to tell Google how far behind they are, how utterly mediocre they have become as an eng org. He says the problem is that they can't use Claude Code because it's the enemy, and Gemini has never been good enough to capture people's workflows like Claude has, so basically agentic coding just never really took off inside Google. They're all just plodding along, completely oblivious to what's happening out there right now. Not only is Google not able to do anything about it, they don't seem to be aware of the problem at all. I'm having major flashbacks to fifty years ago as a kid at the La Brea Tar Pits, asking, "why can't they just climb out?" My Google friend and I had this conversation over a month ago. I didn't share it because I wanted to look around a bit, and see if it's really as bad as all that. I've been talking to people from dozens of companies since then. And yeah. It's as bad as all that. Google is about average. Some companies at the bottom have near-zero AI adoption and can't even get budget for AI. They may have moats and high walls, but the horde is coming for them all the same. And then there are a few companies I've met recently who are *amazingly* leaned in to AI adoption. One category-leader company just cancelled IntelliJ for a thousand engineers. That's an incredibly bold move, one of many they're making towards agentic adoption. In my opinion, that company is setting themselves up for a _huge_ W. As for the rest, well, it's the Great Siloing. Everyone's flying blind. With nobody moving companies, no company knows where they stand on the AI adoption curve. Nobody knows how they're doing compared to everyone else. Half of them just check a box: "We enabled {Copilot/Cursor} for everyone!" Cue smug celebrations. They think this is like getting SOC2 compliance, just a thing they turn on and now it's "solved." And they don't realize that they've done effectively nothing at all. All because of a hiring freeze.

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Indra
Indra@IndraStocks·
@rev_cap US would have legitimately bombed infrastructure into the stone age and you can't really self govern in that scenario
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Indra
Indra@IndraStocks·
"You're either a X or not X" Very derivative to the point of being effectively useless. 99.99% of businesses are consumers. This doesn't really mean much, the same is true for utilities, internet access, software, etc. In a vacuum its not prescriptive of anything
NVIDIA Data Center@NVIDIADC

💡 You’re either a token producer or consumer. @GavinSBaker, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at @Atreidesmgmt, sets the stage for the next phase of tokens and how they will be an incredibly vital asset for businesses. 📺 Watch the full #NVIDIAGTC Live Pregame Show: nvda.ws/4tEtfJP

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Indra@IndraStocks·
Well holistically it isn't in sample right. A decent example is training data cutoffs. I can get a model to correctly implement an API not within training data and it figures it out by cURL requesting repeatedly to understand the structure. It will answer non-sense if you ask it for idiosyncratic alpha, but if you break that problem down into components as much as possible I would guess you can get a decent ways there
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
- CEOs of AI labs do not understand their technology at all, they're just salesmen - Corporate CEOs do not understand AI, they just chase hype and announce projects and deals - AI/ML researchers know AGI is nonsense - $2tn capex for slopcoding assist and video slop with ads
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@bennpeifert I am! Fundamental based is vastly easier than quant I would wager. Would you disagree with the code assertion though?
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Indra
Indra@IndraStocks·
@bennpeifert Would you disagree that practically anything can be in sample if you are able to properly stack the requisite in sample capabilities within the context window? Code for example, it iteratively stacks known functions and suddenly I have a fully functioning website
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
@IndraStocks nonlinear interpolation fails miserably out of sample tools fail miserably on problems not in the training data where the underlying structure is non-stationary which is most interesting problems
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Indra
Indra@IndraStocks·
@bennpeifert They are exceptional logic machines. Hooking them up to tool definitions can produce legitimately extremely impressive results. Any "novel" human output is just a stack of non-novel inputs, why can't AI be the same?
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Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️
There is no theoretical basis of any kind for the idea that AI models could "reason" or replace highly experienced talent. AI models are highly nonlinear statistical interpolation, if the question is not in the training data, the output is garbage
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@tha1en Key to this admin is really just understanding the obvious and often directly stated
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thalen
thalen@tha1en·
@IndraStocks 10000 IQ move if you think about it or rather, don't think about it
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Indra@IndraStocks·
$INTC just about a double in 6 months Buying nationally backstopped critical technology when the president basically tells you too isn't that bad of a deal I guess
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@4drant @Teknium Would assume it's all the tool declaration overhead on multi step agent workflows.
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@PythiaR 50 of their very best product managers are figuring out how to fuck this up right now
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Indra@IndraStocks·
Justin Rose really embodying $WDAY today
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Indra@IndraStocks·
$SNDK management generating zero share holder returns for a decade before 20x'ing in a year and getting included in QQQ
GIF
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Indra@IndraStocks·
Girlfriend says I ruined her friends cake but I think I did a phenomenal job
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@buccocapital Prompt matters a ton with image models
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BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
Asked Gemini and Claude to visualize my article on how AI is transforming the org chart Crazy how different the outputs are. Models definitely not a commodity. Prefer Claude I think
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Indra@IndraStocks·
@matt_slotnick Feel like path forward is pretty clearly agent harnesses for your own software and gun down API's for external agents so you don't lose customer relationship. Requires high taste+engineering skill+product velocity though
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Matt Slotnick
Matt Slotnick@matt_slotnick·
Incumbents must fully internalize that progress will happen with or without them Claude has shown a future in which software is far more capable than ever before. You can’t market that away Fight it, and the world will build around you So lean in… embrace the future
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Indra@IndraStocks·
This is dumb Nobody cares about your SBC if you grow fast consistently. The obscene SBC just made the downside worse when growth trajectory was brought into question You don't see anyone bitching about Anthropic equity comp
Bill Gurley@bgurley

x.com/i/article/2042…

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