PE Associate
111 posts

PE Associate
@PE_Associate
I share tips, humour and commentary about my experience as growth / private equity investor at mega fund
California, USA Присоединился Mayıs 2014
179 Подписки140 Подписчики
Закреплённый твит

@StateDept I am begging you to please also try and resurrect cloud software trading multiples. Exit liquidity in sponsor portfolios across the US and the globe is banking on it
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@Bitcoin_Teddy Exactly, this is why we need to keep the sponsor LBO marker churning. To create opportunities for everyone
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@SecRubio Mr Secretary, I am begging you to please also try and resurrect cloud software trading multiples. Exit liquidity in sponsor portfolios across the US and the globe is banking on it
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@NYCMayor Mr Mayor, I am begging you to please also try and resurrect cloud software trading multiples. Carry pools across each of the NY boroughs is riding on this
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Happy Easter, New York! Today, millions of New Yorkers celebrate the resurrection of Jesus Christ and the victory of hope over despair and faith over fear.
As the air warms and cherry blossoms begin to bloom, this holy day is a sacred time to pause and reflect on a season of rebirth.
Whether you spend this day singing in pews, parading on Fifth Avenue, joining a processional guided by the bamboo trumpets of Haitian Rara music, or hunting for painted eggs amidst the spring grass, I wish every New Yorker celebrating a joyous day.
Let us all embrace this holiday's spirit of hope and renewal as we build the City — and the world — that we deserve.
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@Pontifex Mr Pope, I am begging you to please also try and resurrect cloud software trading multiples. Exit liquidity in sponsor portfolios across the US and the globe is banking on it
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In this reality, the Passover of the Lord invites us to lift our gaze and open our hearts. The Lord is alive and remains with us. Through the cracks of resurrection that open up in the darkness, he entrusts our hearts to the hope that sustains us: the power of death is not the final destiny of our lives. We are all directed, once and for all, on the path to fulfilment, because in Christ we also have risen. #Easter
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@JaredKubin It’s a JPM equity research chart. I’m curious what you think the crime is
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Howard is one of the GOATs … so i call egregious chart crime on whatever first year analyst gave him this chart.
It’s very enticing … and wrong. Perfect for X fodder.
Patient Investor@patientinvestor
Howard Marks: "When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE!"
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@TheIcahnist We spoke to a leading software sellside IB last week (think Qatalyst, Union Square etc.) and they said right now is the least live tech sellsides they have had since the pandemic first hit…
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@NFW987 @TheSalonDon Showing this to my AD next time he tells me he has no stock of Rolex
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@PE_Associate @TheSalonDon IWC??? Now tell us about your Acura and your premium economy international flights
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@y0urc0nscience1 @chamath Earnings mostly (price moved a lot but corrected down post Iran)
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@PE_Associate @chamath So what changed- price, or earnings?
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don't worry. we are moving up and to the left. the days of 3-5% equity yields don't make sense sense if AGI is real. it isn't the safe harbor you think it is...
Patient Investor@patientinvestor
Howard Marks: "When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE!"
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@market_timer_44 @patientinvestor That data is wrong, check Bloomberg or FactSet
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Why I think PE is (maybe) dying:
We pay way too much: Prices are no longer connected to cash flow (and as a result LTVs are very low) meaning leverage drives little value and there is more downside risk than upside risk on exit multiple. This basically shifts the entire returns distribution to the left.
Less fixable businesses: Businesses today are run much better than they were 25 years ago. If you try to buy a large/mid-cap business in almost any sector, the founder will be savvy enough to have pulled most of the value creation levers you would have. Much less primary value = lower incremental value provided by control and lower returns
Less engaged leadership: Senior leaders really don’t seem to care as much anymore (most of them have already made their money). All of them deserve credit for the funds they’ve built but it is very obvious to juniors at every large fund that ICs have stopped underwriting deals as though their careers / the future of the fund depends on it. Which is why every major fund got caught flat footed by the SaaSpocalypse even though juniors at every major fund were begging seniors not to buy SaaS at these prices in the last year
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@jenny_wen Completely agree - what’s the point of an AI notes transcript you don’t remember
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@exec_sum Yes but Jim Cramer said the credit markets are safe so it’s all good
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@JadeCole2112 Completely agree. The problem is it takes quite a while to learn how LLMs work. No senior leader is willing to put in the time
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A few reasons:
- Most of them are non technical and think the ChatGPT experience translates into everything
- Any way to cut costs is interesting to them
teo@teodorio
Why has AI psychosis affected primarily high level executives? Is it because they have no easy way to empirically see the limitations?
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@NoahKingJr I think a lot of people forget how quickly Anthropic caught up to OpenAI - the inference being that the “winner” might not be any of the big names today
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