Peter

I —

🚨 Tesla Cybercab’s “Charge Depleting Range” was over 418 miles

Here is what I think could be happening in terms of retail allocation of $SPCX and spoiler alert, it’s more than 30%, it’s actually closer to 42% up for grabs to retail. Of the 555.6M initial shares being floated, it’s possible that the lead underwriters are not getting any of the 30% retail allocation at all, so they only get the 70%. The one exception to this is Morgan Stanley via E*TRADE with instructions from SpaceX that those go to actual retail accounts, not their UHNW buddies. I have contacts at JP and Merrill and they have been even more sneaky and cagey than usual, and it’s basically been impossible to get even a single share allocated to retail from them unless you are a $20M+ private client - if you are in this category then you could be getting part of the 70% institutional allocation. I suspect the full 30% retail is actually going to retail via the five US firms mentioned in the S1: Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi and E*TRADE and also allocation for the rest of the world via Barclays, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets, UBS, Wells Fargo, Allen & Company, Cantor, Needham, Raymond James, Societe Generale, Stifel, William Blair, BTG Pactual, ING, Macquarie Capital, Mirae Asset, Mizuho, Santander. It could be that the 30% is being split 50:50 to the US brokers and international brokers or maybe weighted a bit more towards the US or something like that. The reason I suspect this is because I contacted Cantor which is on the list of international brokers where I hold an old retirement account in Ireland from years ago and asked about $SPCX allocation. They got back to me today saying it might be possible and asked how much allocation I was looking for. I also think the institutional underwriters are pissed with how much is going to retail and they have an active campaign to call SPCX over-hyped and overpriced in the hope it reduces demand from retail and they end up getting more (see my previous posts about my conversations with JP and Merrill and their references to Facebook IPO etc). Not only this, but SPCX has also allocated an additional 15% over-allotment at $135/share which is $11.25B, and I think it could work similar to what Airbnb did with upsizing and the greenshoe where demand is met with additional supply during early trading which helps prevent the price from going parabolic straight away. Airbnb only did 5%. SpaceX is doing 3x that at 15%. So 555.6M shares for $75B + 83.34M over-allotment shares for $11.25B, SpaceX will raise $86.25B at the $135/share price. 639M shares up for grabs: • 389M to institutions and UHNW clients • 167M to true retail US and international • 83M to open market which is intended to help retail who didn’t get an allocation but want to buy after launch. Therefore really it’s 250M shares to retail vs 339M to institutions… so 42% to retail which is unprecedented. I think retail will actually do quite well and get many shares at $135. If you haven’t already, I think E*TRADE is your best bet to just open an account today and get your allocation request in. They don’t require you to have the funds available until 6/11, so you can ask for as much as you want right now. If you are international, call a broker that is on the list ASAP. If you don’t get an allocation or enough allocation, then still go ahead and put a limit order on as soon as you can and you will likely benefit from the over-allotment after it goes live. My read of all this is that Elon is very much taking care of retail here and 42% of the float is up for grabs at $135/share. I consider this a gift from Elon and your chances increase further if you happen to have TSLA shares with a cost basis from 10+ years ago in E*TRADE - thanks E!